As we enter the height of fantasy football draft season, I want to help IDP managers form the best possible strategy to dominate their fantasy football leagues and come away with a true league-winning result.
Utilizing the information laid out in Part 1, covering positional scarcity, we know that each IDP position has a production cliff before we start to see similar production from the remaining scorers, making those latter players more replaceable. What that data tells us is that we should find the players most likely to finish left of the cliff so the rest of our leaguemates have a lower chance of rostering comparable players. This is obviously easier said than done.
Helping make this strategy more viable is the information in Part 2 of our League-Winning Draft Strategies series, which should have helped us identify the high-risk players to avoid and those that wouldn’t qualify as our “must-draft” options heading into 2026.
With all of that crucial data and information in hand, Part 3 will finally focus on putting those strategies into action by identifying our potential 2026 league winners.
EDGE
Starting at the EDGE position, where peak production is highest in IDP (Big-3 Scoring), underlying and predictive metrics are most reliable and stable, and where our true league winners likely reside.
The EDGE cliff typically hovers just above 250 fantasy points, though slightly less is still an advantage over most positions. However, since we’ll mostly be competing with linebackers and other EDGEs here, the bar should be set high.
LEAGUE-WINNING EDGE QUALIFIERS:
Each of the past EDGE defenders delivered double-digit sacks along with about 60 tackles (sacks included).
To find those players, we’ll need to lean into our most stable and predictive metrics for future sacks: Expected Sacks, ideally above the 90th percentile at the position.
We’ll also bank on higher than 75% snap shares for tackle production to fill out the rest of their fantasy points.
Outside of 2023’s Khalil Mack, our past league-winners at the EDGE position were mostly drafted around the top-12 players at the position, and usually within the top-five.
Knowing this, and understanding the strong retention rate at the position, highlighted in Part 1, we’ll narrow those top-12 options down to the best bets to deliver league-winning production in 2026.
This means double-digit sacks, at least 60 total tackles (including sacks), and no clear red flags that could eliminate them from contention, as highlighted in Part 2.
Considering we’re looking within the top-12 in ADP, the candidates for this year’s league winner at EDGE are going to be the most obvious. However, we can still narrow it down by making sure these options meet our qualifiers so we don’t pass up on them.
For example, Brian Burns (ED5) just missed the cut in Expected Sacks, Danielle Hunter (ED8) missed on playing time (69.9%) combined with less-than-elite tackles (74th percentile), Nik Bonitto (ED9) missed on Expected Sacks and snap share (61.3%), and Nick Bosa’s (ED7) sample size from last year was too small to include.
MYLES GARRETT, LOS ANGELES RAMS
Garrett just showcased his league-winning ability in 2025, breaking the NFL single-season sack record and becoming the only IDP to surpass 300 points last season.
Expecting that level of sack production from any player is a big ask, but with elite underlying metrics on a better defense, there’s arguably no better early bet in drafts this season.
AIDAN HUTCHINSON, DETROIT LIONS
Hutchinson led the position in Expected Sacks last season thanks to elite playing time and underlying pass-rush metrics.
If Hutchinson gets positive regression in the sack column along with an improvement in his tackle numbers, he holds significant league-winning potential in 2026.
WILL ANDERSON JR., HOUSTON TEXANS
Anderson is missing just one crucial qualifier in his playing time, though that can certainly fluctuate year to year.
It also helps that he owns a 97th percentile mark in Tackles versus Expected to overcome a lower snap share and still produce.
MAXX CROSBY, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Crosby qualified as a league-winner last season thanks to elite playing time and production.
If he’s healthy, he’ll get every opportunity to deliver that same level of elite production again in 2026.
T.J. WATT, PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Watt is technically the only EDGE here with an Expected Sacks mark below the 90th percentile; however, he also missed time last season, which brought the number down.
He ranked in the 92nd percentile in Expected Sacks per game, and as a league winner twice over the past two seasons, that ED1 potential still clearly exists.
JARED VERSE, CLEVELAND BROWNS
Verse has yet to deliver a double-digit sack season, but all of his underlying metrics point to a player more than capable of doing so.
He should continue to get high-end playing time and dominate at the line of scrimmage for true ED1 potential, even on a new team this coming season.
ABDUL CARTER, NEW YORK GIANTS
Probably the biggest surprise name on this list as he’s entering just his second season, Carter’s metrics are all comparable to his peers in this range.
He’ll need to be much more fortunate in the sack column, but as the league’s top candidate for positive sack regression, the potential is absolutely there.
JOSH HINES-ALLEN, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Hines-Allen showcased league-winning ability in 2023, but since then has been unlucky in the sack column.
Similar to Abdul Carter, all Hines-Allen really needs is that positive regression to hit so he can get back to his league-winning ways.
LINEBACKER
Assuming that IDP managers are following the strategies laid out in this series, you’ll likely have taken multiple swings at the EDGE position early, through the top-24 players at the position, before moving onto the linebackers. With others in your league likely drafting linebackers in the meantime, odds are that we’ll have to find our picks outside the top-24 players in ADP, which works to our advantage as you’ll see shortly.
The peak of linebacker production is typically just over 250 points, not dissimilar to the EDGE position. With more players being drafted outside the top-12 who are capable of hitting those marks, we as drafters will have more opportunities to hit on those potential league-winners to pair with an EDGE (or two) of the same caliber.
LEAGUE-WINNING LINEBACKER QUALIFIERS:
More than half of past “league-winning” linebackers were drafted outside the top-12 at the position, with most of those players being drafted well outside the top-24.
Again, speaking to that flat, replaceable production at the position, this is what will give us our best shot at getting both a league-winning EDGE and LB on our roster, as opposed to drafting them the other way around.
Our candidates will be above-average performers in Tackles versus Expected, projected for a 90%-plus snap share, and are being drafted outside the top-24 at the position.
By eliminating all players who didn’t check all three boxes, we came away with six clear options to target at the position for league-winning upside being drafted outside the top-24. There’s certainly potential that LBs typically drafted earlier than that will still be available as well.
There are obviously plenty more every-down linebackers who came in just below average in Tackles versus Expected last season and can easily bounce back in that regard, not unlike Devin White last year, Kaden Elliss in 2024, and Quincy Williams in 2023. However, to avoid including every linebacker going from 25-48 in ADP, we’ll keep the list of qualifiers strict.
Also, with two full-time rookies already on this list, if Jacob Rodriguez also locks down a full-time role before Week 1, he’d also qualify.
ARVELL REESE, NEW YORK GIANTS
Reese is expected to play a full-time role in Year 1, and while he has no historic production to reference in the NFL, he still couldn’t be disqualified from this list.
Reese has the potential for sack production with more usage as a blitzer, increasing his ceiling even if he isn’t a high-end tackler as a rookie.
CJ ALLEN, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Allen is the current favorite to wear the green dot in Lou Anaroumo’s defense this season, locking the rookie into an every-down role.
Much like with Reese, we don’t have historical NFL data on Allen, but he’ll play a most-friendly IDP role right out the gate, giving him as good of a shot as any outside the top-24.
ALEX SINGLETON, DENVER BRONCOS
Singleton’s elite tackling has always been his calling card, though with a quieter 2025 coming off a torn ACL, IDP managers appear to have lost faith in him a bit.
Singleton’s darkhorse LB1 candidacy was highlighted in detail here for those interested in even more reason to take advantage of this reasonable ADP.
ROBERT SPILLANE, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Spillane is coming off a quiet first season in New England after delivering a top-five IDP season in 2024.
Spillane still holds the potential to get back to this range with a locked-in every-down role and strong tackling ability.
DEMARVION OVERSHOWN, DALLAS COWBOYS
Overshown’s career has been plagued by injuries to this point, but assuming health, there’s a big role for him to take over in 2026.
Overshown is looking like the favorite to wear the green dot, and if he’s able to produce anything like his 2024 season, he’ll be more than worth the value in this range.
BARRETT CARTER, CINCINNATI BENGALS
Carter surprised everyone in 2025, emerging as an every-down linebacker as a rookie over veteran Logan Wilson and Demetrius Knight, who was drafted ahead of him.
Carter wasn’t without his issues as an NFL linebacker, but he still produced slightly above average as a tackler and should be in line to develop in the same role in Year 2.
SAFETY
As you attack these positions in order, and take as many swings as possible at EDGE and linebacker (including DTs in DT-required formats), it’s likely that safeties will be coming off the board as well. But, as mentioned in Part 1, do not panic. Remain patient at the position, and there will still be plenty of options waiting for you once you’ve addressed the more valuable positions first.
The peak at safety comes in well below EDGE and linebacker, and the production curve is flat enough that we should still have a great chance to find those league winners, even beyond the top-24 at the position. The peak is typically above 200 points with a clear cliff after that.
LEAGUE-WINNING SAFETY QUALIFIERS:
2025 didn’t produce any “league-winners” at the safety position, though we still have enough examples to pull from in previous years.
As you can see, the ADP in which these past league winners were drafted came from various ranges, from top-five to essentially undrafted.
As we fade the position, it’s unlikely that we’ll get a top-drafted player at the position to fall to us, so we’ll focus on those going outside the top-24, as that’s about the range in our ADP that full-time linebackers begin to dry up.
There’s a chance that players typically drafted within the top-24 will be available, but we’ll keep things consistent by staying outside that range and to showcase the many options still available to you in a zero-DB strategy.
We’re really just looking for safeties who are going to play full-time roles and can push for triple-digit tackles.
As is true with the linebacker position, there are still plenty of full-time players at the position who didn’t perform above expected as tacklers last season, though that can change on any given season. The point of highlighting only those that did is to bet on players that won’t be overly dependent on an ideal deployment and can still produce above-average tackle numbers.
On top of the wild variance in production at the position, there are significantly more options to choose from at safety (and cornerback, of course) than our more valued DL and LB positions.
TYLER NUBIN, NEW YORK GIANTS
Nubin is a clear-cut starter in New York, should get ideal deployment, and in turn, be a great value as S25 in the ADP.
Nubin performed as a 96th percentile tackler in 2024 and was very unlucky in non-tackle production in 2025, meaning he’s due for positive regression there, and could hit big in 2026.
JORDAN BATTLE, CINCINNATI BENGALS
Battle has performed as an elite tackler every year that he’s been in the league, even if he’s struggled to lock down an every-down role as an NFL safety.
That role is once again in question after a poor 2025, to the point where he may lose snaps in Cincinnati’s defense, which is a concern that keeps his ADP in check. If that doesn’t happen, then he’ll be a steal.
DESHON ELLIOTT, PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Elliott’s IDP potential has been highlighted many times by yours truly this offseason, including as a hidden gem and a darkhorse S1.
Elliott’s elite tackling ability and return to health should equate to high-end IDP production, as has been the norm for him in recent years.
BRANDON JONES, DENVER BRONCOS
Jones went from being a “bust” last year to a potential value this season as his ADP has fallen well below his 2025 S11 ADP.
Jones has consistently been an above-average to elite performer in Tackles versus Expected, and if he can return to form in 2026, he’ll be an easy pick at S34.
MALIK MUSTAPHA, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Mustapha was highlighted as a potential sleeper this season, backed by his high-end underlying tackling metrics in 2025.
Mustapha missed time last year, which hurt his value, but that lower IDP finish also created a nice bargain in his ADP this year.
EVAN WILLIAMS, GREEN BAY PACKERS
Williams also made the sleeper list this season, so more detail on his potential in 2026 can be found in that article.
With Williams primed for an every-down role again, and showcasing strong tackle metrics, he’s an easy zero-DB candidate to target this season.
BRYAN COOK, CINCINNATI BENGALS
Cook moves from Kansas City to Cincinnati this season, and given the Bengals’ desperate need for competent safety play, he should be locked into an every-down role.
Cook quietly delivered an efficient tackling season in 2025 while playing a primary deep role, creating encouragement that he can do so again in 2026 on a new defense.
DANTE TRADER JR., MIAMI DOLPHINS
One more pick from the sleeper article, Trader Jr. is primed for a starting role for the first time in his NFL career given Miami’s lack of options at the position.
Trader flashed IDP potential last season, even scoring an 80th percentile mark in Tackles versus Expected.
KAMREN KINCHENS, LOS ANGELES RAMS
Kinchens averaged just 75% of the team’s defensive snaps last year, as his role wasn’t that of a true every-down safety, though heading into Year 3, he’s shown enough that that should change.
Helping Kinchens’ value is that he’s performed in the 90th percentile or higher in Tackles versus Expected in each of his first two seasons, so a larger role could create a significant jump in production.
NICK SCOTT, CAROLINA PANTHERS
While I’m still hopeful for Lathan Ransom to win the starting job, the early news out of Carolina is that Nick Scott will start alongside Tre’Von Moehrig again.
Scott delivered an elite 95th percentile score in Tackles versus Expected in this exact role last season, but was incredibly unlucky in the big-play department, which could positively regress this season.
ANDREW WINGARD, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Another hopeful for me, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, appears to still be buried on the depth chart as the Cardinals look to be favoring Wingard for the vacated Jalen Thompson role.
Wingard has been a serviceable IDP in the past, typically performing above expected as a tackler, and appears set to deliver once again in 2026.
Conclusion
I won’t include defensive tackles in this, as the prime candidates are all being drafted within the top-12 at the position already. I also won’t include cornerbacks for the opposite reason, as there are way too many options to choose from, all capable of delivering CB1 production.
And with that, we’ll wrap up this brand new League-Winning IDP Draft Strategies series. I hope you found it helpful and can put these practices into action in time for your 2026 draft to bring home a championship.
For those who didn’t read the first two parts, they can be found here:
Part 1: Leveraging Positional Scarcity | Part 2: Avoiding Common Mistakes
Please check them out, as I think there is a lot of actionable information that can help any IDP manager heading into this season. Good luck in 2026!
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Great stuff Jon. Targeting CJ in my rookie drafts.