Darkhorse IDP Candidates to Finish as the SAFETY1 in 2026
These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning S1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.
Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.
The safety position is easily one of the tougher positions to predict, although, funny enough, it’s also where we had our biggest hit by putting Budda Baker on this list before his massive 2024 season, which is why it’s still worth digging in to find other future candidates. And luckily, there are patterns to find reliable options, though 2021 Kearse is a good example of how true darkhorses can come out of nowhere to surprise IDP managers.
These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 12 at their positions, according to our ADP from IDP-only best-ball drafts, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found here.
The safety and defensive back positions, as a whole, tend to see much more year-to-year turnover among the top fantasy scorers. Still, there are some similarities among past S1s that we can learn from to help identify the next man up for 2026.
Nick Cross had the ideal usage and production to come out on top in 2025, combining high-end tackle numbers with big plays, much like past S1s.
Budda Baker and Jalen Pitre really set the bar high for tackle numbers at the position, though those numbers don’t necessarily have to be that high with enough big plays mixed in.
Pitre and Antoine Winfield Jr. combined for tackles and a higher rate of big plays to reach those S1 heights.
Ultimately, there’s going to be at least some reliance on big plays to actually come through as the IDP leader for this position most years, since an average of 20% of DB fantasy production comes from non-tackles.
Unfortunately, predicting big plays like interceptions and sacks is a fool’s errand, so we’ll focus mostly on metrics that are slightly more stable.
Tackles are our best bet to project, and their potential usage and alignment within the defense can aid that projection.
Winfield and Pitre didn’t necessarily play a high rate of snaps close to the line of scrimmage, but they both produced well above average in either big plays (Winfield) or tackles (Pitre), making them significant outliers that are difficult to replicate.
Our focus will be on identifying those who can rack up tackles like Cross, Baker, and Kearse, who spent the majority of their snaps near the line of scrimmage.
Outside of Kearse, who mostly delivered as expected as a tackler based on his usage, all of our previous S1s were elite performers in Tackles versus Expected, which will ideally help us pinpoint more DNA for a 2026 IDP leader at the position.
Chamarri Conner, Kansas City Chiefs
Conner delivered a breakout season in 2025 after taking over a larger full-time role in Kansas City’s defense following the departure of Justin Reid, absorbing that usage and really running away with it. Conner finished as the overall S12 in Big-3 scoring, backed by 115 total tackles, two sacks, an interception, and two forced fumbles. Conner inherited the box-heavy deployment in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and made the most of his opportunities, ideally a trend that will continue into 2026 for him to hit an even higher mark.
Considering Conner was an every-down player for the first time in his three-year career, and knowing the role that he gets to play in that defense, averaging 40% of his snaps in the box, another 38% in the slot, and only 17% deep, he has one of the most optimal deployments for the position in the league. Helping Conner’s case is that he’s been a highly effective tackler every year of his career, including a 76th-percentile finish in Tackles versus Expected in 2025, a 94th-percentile finish in 2024, and a 67th-percentile finish in 2023. When understanding that he’s outperforming the position’s average production based on his deployment, even with the ideal deployment of playing so close to the line of scrimmage, even hitting a 90th-percentile finish in that metric, he becomes a great bet to hit those elite tackle marks in 2026.
On top of his top-tier tackling, Conner has at least some upside to improve in big plays, as he was smack-dab in the middle in terms of percentage of non-tackle fantasy points last season (20.2%). There’s always a chance he can regress in the wrong direction with those big plays, but the goal of this piece is optimism, and Conner should certainly have us feeling more optimistic, especially considering his DB32 ADP at the moment.
DeShon Elliott, Pittsburgh Steelers
I know that I’ve talked about Elliott a fair bit recently, including as a bounce-back candidate and a potential hidden gem in my IDP projections, so I apologize for feeling obligated to include him one more time. I’ll be sure to make this the last spotlight for him this offseason, but it’s not my fault he fits so many superlatives, and perhaps none more so than here as a true darkhorse to finish as the overall S1 in 2026.
Elliott was already at a similar pace last year, but unfortunately his season was cut short by injury. However, even with just under 300 defensive snaps in 2025, Elliott’s elite tackling shone through as he finished in the 87th percentile in Tackles versus Expected overall and the 99th percentile in Tackles versus Expected per game. This has been the norm for much of Elliott’s career, including 2024, when he finished in the 98th percentile, and 2022, when he finished in the 93rd percentile. Considering that he’s been able to achieve those marks regardless of deployment, I'm hopeful that a change in defensive scheme in 2026 won’t be a significant detriment to his overall production potential.
The Steelers brought in another box-heavy safety in Jaquan Brisker this offseason, but both he and Elliott are more than capable of filling that role throughout the season. Even if Elliott were to get more snaps deep, his Tackles versus Expected track record is the evidence we’re looking for to highlight players who can overcome suboptimal deployments. Elliott played 42% of his snaps deep in 2022 and still ranked in the 93rd percentile in Tackles versus Expected. 42% deep really feels like a worst-case scenario for Elliott, considering his usage most years. The main takeaway here should be that a healthy Elliott means a top-tier IDP on a full-time snap share, and considering his DB55 ADP, why would we not want to get in on that, S1 overall upside aside.
A.J. Haulcy, Indianapolis Colts
Depending on who's reading this, I’m either crazy for putting a rookie on this list, or I’m cheating by choosing the exact same role and team that last year’s IDP S1 came from. And I say both can be true, if we’re being honest. Because, despite Haulcy being a complete unknown in terms of what he’ll be in the NFL, there’s a very favorable role for him to absorb in Lou Anarumo’s defense, and, if his rookie prospect profile is to be believed, he has the makings to deliver on that potential and come close to returning elite IDP value.
Last year, in this same defense, Nick Cross played 50% of his defensive snaps in the box and still finished in the 90th percentile in Tackles versus Expected. With Cross gone and a Day 2 pick spent on Haulcy to seemingly replace him, we’ll ideally see Haulcy perform similarly as a tackler, fulfilling his S1 potential. There’s certainly hope with Haulcy, who, compared to his Day 1 and Day 2 DB peers drafted in this class, owns the best career college tackle rate of 12.9% (96th percentile). Haulcy also has experience playing around the line of scrimmage, having averaged 37% of his college snaps in the box and performing well in that role, given his 97th-percentile career PFF grade (92.5).
For Haulcy to deliver on his S1 potential, he’ll obviously need to win a starting job, which shouldn’t be too difficult considering the team’s investment in him and the other options on the roster. He’ll also need that box-heavy role, which makes much more sense for him than it does perennial deep-safety Cam Bynum. And finally, his college production metrics and potential will have to carry over and hit immediately in Year 1 in the NFL. If that reasonable and perfect storm comes together, Haulcy should have a real shot at returning elite IDP value. Even though this is rarely seen from rookies at the position, recent years have seen Nick Emmanwori (S5 in PPG) and Brian Branch (CB2 in PPG) deliver on their potential immediately.
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