IDP Portfolio Review: Did I Make the Right Picks?
Josh reacts to top 10 IDPs in his D-UP portfolio.
Strange things can happen in a fantasy football draft. That’s what I keep telling myself as I review my finalized portfolio for the inaugural D-UP contest. How else do you explain ending up with the NFL’s third-oldest LB as your most-rostered player?
That’s actually what I want to do in this article: explain my rationale for the top 10 IDPs in my D-UP portfolio, and then score how comfortable I am with that exposure in the biggest IDP best ball contest of all time. After all, I want to win that $2,000!
Did I set myself up to do that with these picks? Let’s dig into it.
#1: Lavonte David, 39.4%
So, here’s the thing: Lavonte David is an IDP legend.
If you’ve played IDP for more than one season, you know this. But the thing about legends is they have to be, well, older for that title to apply. David will be 35 years old this season, and as someone who’s waving goodbye to his mid-30s in a few months, I can tell you that the age cliff is coming soon for the Buccaneers linebacker.
As long as that cliff doesn’t hit this season—and I don’t think it will—then I’ll be just fine. My personal ADP on David was 46.5, so he was frequently a late 5th-round pick for me, almost always as my third LB. Does this one make me sweat a bit? For sure. The fall-off could happen this year. But getting Adam’s LB7 as LB24?
I’ll roll the dice that we get one more ride from David this season.
Comfort Level: 6 out of 10
#2: Josh Hines-Allen, 36.4%
Another delicious value in D-UP drafts, Josh Hines-Allen is Adam’s DL11 and is currently being selected as DL17. My personal ADP was 32.8, which is right in line with his actual ADP of 32, so the start of the 4th round. As my co-host Bobby Reynolds asked on a recent podcast, how many current NFL players have had 17 sacks in a season like Hines-Allen had in 2023, when he racked up 17.5?
StatMuse has the answer, if you’re wondering: four other players on NFL rosters currently (Trey Hendrickson, Khalil Mack, T.J. Watt, and Nick Bosa) have had at least 17 sacks in a season. I add that caveat because Shaq Barrett, who is not on an NFL roster at the moment, had a 19.5 sack season in 2019. (Remember that?)
I bring this up to illustrate the rare ceiling that Hines-Allen possesses. Is he frustrating to roster in managed leagues? You betcha. But this is best ball, baby! And if I don’t have to take Hines-Allen as my DL1 or DL2, all the better. He’s the ideal DL3 to give me a much-needed upside swing before we enter the DL dead zone.
Comfort Level: 8 out of 10
#3: T.J. Watt, 33.3%
We don’t have to waste too much time here. By Big 3 Scoring, the mark of a truly elite IDP season is 300 points (17.6 PPG over 17 games). Usually, fewer than a handful of IDPs hit this mark each season. It’s rarified air reserved for league winners.
T.J. Watt has four 300-point seasons in the last six years. (Keep in mind that in 2022, he only played 10 games.) There is no one with a higher ceiling in all of IDP. He is a no-brainer the few times I’ve gotten the 1.01, and I know I’m about to have a great day if he slips to me at 1.02 or 1.03 (my personal ADP is 2.7, so it’s happened).
If anything gives me hope I can take home the $2,000, it’s my Watt exposure.
Comfort Level: 10 out of 10
#4: Azeez Al-Shaair, 30.3%
The Texans LB is the first in a trio of IDPs who are on 10 of my rosters. I felt a lot better about Al-Shaair before the E.J. Speed signing, which further complicated an already crowded LB room. Once the Speed signing happened on March 29, I drafted Al-Shaair just once more. My most common build with him (five out of 10) was DL in the 1st round, Frankie Luvu in the 2nd round, and Al-Shaair in the 3rd. Both Luvu and Al-Shaair were being faded when the contest first opened back in mid-February.
I agree with Jason King, who wrote in April that “Azeez Al-Shaair is entrenched here as a top-two linebacker for the next couple of seasons, but I could easily see Houston trying to upgrade on the other three.” But between the suspension in 2024, the knee injury he picked up in the playoffs (but is now apparently past), and the other capable LBs nipping at his heels, it makes me nervous to have this much invested in him.
Comfort Level: 5 out of 10
#5: Nick Bosa, 30.3%
T.J. Watt may be my most frequent 1st round pick, but Nick Bosa is my favorite. I was able to Adam’s 6th-ranked best ball IDP for 2025 at 1.10 not once, but twice. (I also got him at 1.09 in another draft.) That just doesn’t tend to happen in the 1st round, but guys with questionable early ADPs like Jared Verse, Will Anderson, and Zaire Franklin all pushed Bosa deeper and deeper into the 1st in March and April.
Bosa hasn’t reached the highs that Watt has (just one 300-point season on his resume), but he’s the super-charged version of what Josh Hines-Allen gives you: that elite sack ceiling, just with way more consistency year to year. His “worst” PPG average over the last four years is 15.29 in 2023, when he finished as DL10. Right now, Bosa is DL7 in D-UP. Truly, my heart will be broken if he finishes that far past his ADP.
Or he could put up another 15+ sacks in 2025 and finish as DL2, like he did in 2022 (when he had an insane 18.5-sack campaign). If the market wants to believe the bear case, I’m happy to be a bullish buyer who’s scooping up this late-1st value.
Comfort Level: 9 out of 10
#6: Blake Cashman, 30.3%
Lost amidst the hype of the Vikings’ late-season surge was how dominant Blake Cashman was down the stretch for IDP. He was LB9 in PPG for Weeks 10-18 and had three games over 20 points. Much like Lavonte David, Cashman has continuity on his side: he has the same DC from 2024 and the same LBs alongside him. Yes, he got banged up and missed a couple games, but other than that, I have no concern.
Cashman was a frequent 3rd-round target of mine (personal ADP of 24.6) and most frequently (four of 10 builds) was my first LB chosen after going DL-DL to start. In those instances where he was my second LB, he was paired with either Zack Baun or Frankie Luvu (who we’ll talk about in a moment). He was one of the upside swings I wanted to take at LB consistently because his snap volume (95% from Week 10 on) guarantees him a safe floor. He’s not a speculative play like Edgerrin Cooper, another LB in my upside bucket, who cracked 95% only once during the regular season.
I can count on Cashman, so I didn’t mind paying up a bit to get him. Unlike David, Father Time isn’t breathing down his neck, so having him tied for my second-most rostered LB feels good. (But just to be safe, I do have three shares of Ivan Pace Jr.)
Comfort Level: 8 out of 10
#7: Frankie Luvu, 24.2%
Will it be upside or floor that contributes the most to the winning build in D-UP? I’m not sure where I fall with that question yet, but I’m leaning toward upside. That’s why I primarily went edge rusher in the 1st round and why two of my top four rostered LBs are Cashman and Luvu. We got exactly what we wanted from Luvu in Year 1 in Washington: 99 tackles and 8 sacks. The past three years, he’s averaged 254 points, 6.8 sacks, and 111.6 tackles. He’s played every game over the last two seasons.
My personal ADP for Luvu is 16, so one spot ahead of where drafters are taking him. I’m conflicted overall on this exposure. On the one hand, Luvu has proven himself a reliable asset, and he stands out as my favorite pick in the dead zone we find in the middle to late portion of the 2nd round in D-UP. He’s got the same kind of stability Cashman has and will be asked to rush the passer at a high rate again in 2025, as Washington’s edge rusher depth chart is arguably the worst in the league.
But the tackle floor isn’t there with Luvu like it is with the other LBs being taken around him. Inside the top 10, the other nine LBs being selected averaged 123 tackles in 2024. We saw that from Luvu in 2023 with Carolina, so it’s in his range of outcomes, but that was before he played alongside tackle monster Bobby Wagner, who’s averaged 151 tackles per game the past three seasons. This room, in fact, poses a great test of your philosophy toward what will win D-UP: ceiling (Luvu) or floor (Wagner)?
I have 15.2% exposure to Wagner, so there’s my answer. And I feel… OK about it, I guess? I’m probably overthinking this one and letting my belief that regression is coming overall for Washington color my attitude toward their IDPs.
Comfort Level: 7 out of 10
#8: Jordyn Brooks, 21.2%
The Dolphins LB leads off another trio of IDPs with the same level of exposure. I know I’m guilty of not giving Jordyn Brooks enough respect in 2024 after he quietly had the second-best year of his career and finished as LB7 by Big 3 Scoring. The team did add Tyrel Dodson in free agency, and I like his sleeper potential, but the rest of the unit (Willie Gay, KJ Britt, Channing Tindall) don’t scare me at all.
Brooks is clearly the best LB of the bunch and is discounted at LB19 compared to Adam’s ranking of him at LB13. He was a frequent target in builds where I started DL early, which is my favorite strategy because the LB value in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds is insane (more on that in a moment). Compare that to the rest of the IDPs available and it’s shifted to mostly DBs (who I don’t draft) and DTs (ditto).
Brooks isn’t a sexy option but drafting him let me shore up my floor in builds where I leaned more into upside early. I expect similar production from him in 2025.
Comfort Level: 7 out of 10
#9: Terrel Bernard, 21.2%
The newly-extended Bills LB was banged up last year, so I’m willing to forgive his PPG dip from 16.5 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2024. I think the truth is somewhere in between those two points, and I’ll happily sign up for that at LB20, mostly because my personal ADP of 44.3 puts him near the middle of the 5th round, where I either selected him, the next name on this list, or Lavonte David (typically one or two picks later).
Bernard follows a similar pattern with my LB selections:
Continuity with coaching: every LB up to this point has the same DC
Clearly the lead dog: Houston’s situation is muddy, but all these guys are LB1
Not changing teams: with 60 IDPs drafted, I can’t afford uncertainty
Adam’s LB20 going as LB20 isn’t a big value win like some of these other selections are, but hitting a double that can maybe turn into a triple is fine with me. We’ve seen Bernard’s ceiling (LB3 in 2023) and I’m not ruling out that we see it again.
Comfort Level: 8 out of 10
#10: Jack Campbell, 21.2%
One of my favorite quirks of the D-UP ADP is that Jack Campbell and his teammate, Alex Anzalone, are just two picks apart (and at one point were back-to-back). What’s wild to me, though, is that Anzalone is the one being selected first, a decision by the market that I think is flat-out wrong. Campbell seized hold of that LB1 role during Anzalone’s six-game absence and didn’t relinquish it once the long-haired beauty returned for the last game of the season and the playoff loss to Washington.
The only two reasons I’m not higher on this exposure are:
There’s a new DC in town (Kelvin Sheppard) with Aaron Glenn now in New York
It’s the Lions, who’ve famously yanked us around with Campbell’s playing time
Logic would tell me that Campbell is an ascending player who will fully realize his 1st-round potential in 2025 and that Anzalone will assume the LB2 role. But would I wager a large sum of money on that happening? No, I would not.
I’m happy I pushed the button on Campbell as much as I did. He could be a contest-winner if he well and truly takes that next step. I’m 60% of the way to all-in.
Comfort Level: 6 out of 10
Final Thoughts
Overall, I’d say my comfort level with the top 10 IDPs in my portfolio is a 7 out of 10. There’s nobody egregious in there and having T.J. Watt on one-third of my teams warms my heart. Part of the uncertainty comes from not knowing what the winning formula looks like for a new contest like D-UP. I know we won’t have that formula truly figured out for a half decade or so, but in 2026, at least we’ll know something more than we know now. For this first year, it’s all theory and guesswork.
But that’s what makes it fun, too. Being able to challenge myself during this contest was some of the most fun I’ve had in years. If you’d like to join us, we’d love to have you. Use code IDPSHOW to get a $50 deposit match and start building your own portfolio. I can’t wait to see how it turns out—as long as it’s not too good!
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