Veteran IDPs Who Could Lose Value During the 2025 NFL Draft
If you roster any of these players, you'll need the odds break in your favor next week.
The 2025 NFL Draft is practically upon us, and we’ll soon have draft capital and landing spots to drive rookie values. As excited as the fantasy community is for the infusion of new talent into the league—and onto our rosters—there’s a flip side. No one gets excited about the prospect of our existing assets losing value, yet it is sure to happen to a handful of veterans we’re not expecting it to happen to.
The purpose of this article is to help inform you of potential risks to the value of those existing assets. Granted, the premise of this piece is entirely speculative. But I think there’s good cause for concern—and it’s obvious in some cases—for each of the veteran IDPs mentioned below.
Edge Rushers
Draftniks know this is a deep pool of edge rushers, with as many as 19 finding homes by the end of day two. So, by the time we wake up Saturday morning, many of our veterans will have lost value. Older, rotational edges already have scant value to begin with, so I’m going to focus more on some younger, more notable options who may still be carrying good-to-moderate value, whether for 2025 or for dynasty.
For fantasy, it would minimize the sting of draft selections to see the following teams land the top edge rushers on days one and two: Atlanta, Buffalo, Baltimore, Carolina, Detroit, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Washington.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, NYG
You need not venture too far into the mock draft wormhole to discover Abdul Carter’s name attached to the Giants at the No. 3 overall pick. Edge rusher isn’t an obvious need for Big Blue, but Carter and Travis Hunter are the consensus top two available prospects. Assuming Tennessee moves forward with quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1 and Cleveland nabs Hunter at No. 2, penciling Carter’s name as the next pick is an all-too-easy and somewhat lazy exercise… or is it?
Has Thibodeaux been poor enough to merit replacement? It’s fair to argue that so far in his career, he hasn’t lived up to that No. 5 overall draft billing. But I’d argue that he’s at least a starting-level number 2. In 2024, when he missed Weeks 6-10 with a wrist injury that needed surgery, Thibodeaux placed 48th (among edges playing at least 250 snaps) in pressures per snap.
The bigger issue for Thibodeaux and the Giants is the approaching May 1 fifth-year option deadline. To date, only Travon Walker among 2022 first-round picks has had his fifth-year option exercised. And at a projected $14.7 million for 2026, New York may decide that Thibodeaux isn’t worth the price tag given the production so far. The team could also decide it doesn’t want to extend Thibodeaux at a hefty contract number given the four years remaining on Brian Burns’ contract—a year-old deal that pays Burns $28.2 million annually.
Should the G-men draft Carter, Thibodeaux could get traded—a preferred scenario to a three-man committee of Burns, Carter, and Tibodeaux. New York could also draft Carter, decline Thibodeaux’s fifth-year option, and allow the latter to hit free agency after next season. Either way, Carter going to the Giants at No. 3 is going to have a pretty big ripple effect on Thibodeaux’s fantasy value.
Keion White, NE
Speaking of Carter, there’s a chance he slips to the fourth pick—held by New England—should two quarterbacks be drafted among the first three picks. And this is probably the ideal scenario for the Patriots, who finished dead last in sacks (28) and near the bottom in total team pressures (208) in 2024. Apparently determined not to be so reliant on White (829 snaps) and Anfernee Jennings (831 snaps) for a second consecutive season, New England brought in Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency. While Chaisson is coming off his best season as a pass rusher, Landry is coming off his worst, and the hope here is that more bodies can help the unit as a whole stay fresh. White, in particular, faded badly down the stretch, with just 10 pressures (of 45 on the season) coming after Week 10.
Carter would be a top-of-the-wish-list gift to this defense but a heavy lump of coal in White’s stocking from an opportunity standpoint. In addition to the additions at edge, New England also brought in free agent prize Milton Williams to (hopefully) pair with Christian Barmore, reducing opportunity for the 285-pound White to slide inside and make up for lost snaps outside or over the tackle.
If you’re already ready to jump ship on White after free agency, the addition of Carter should have you swimming away as fast as humanly possible.
Lukas Van Ness, GB
This one hurts, as I really liked what I saw from Van Ness during his rookie season. With size, long arms and quick movements, we witnessed Van Ness’ ability to quickly change direction and take good angles on ball carriers, utilize speed to chase down fast quarterbacks, be effective on stunts, stack and shed, play with leverage and power, move inside and defeat double teams, and maintain his balance and keep his head up when he’s low to the ground. Year two should have been the breakout, but instead, Van Ness regressed under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. After the Packers dealt Preston Smith to Pittsburgh prior to Week 10, Van Ness actually saw a slight decrease in his average number of snaps per game.
The time to unload any remaining Van Ness shares likely ended at some point prior to 2024 trade deadlines. There’s still hope, especially if you’re apt to lay the blame at the foot of former defensive line coach Jason Rebrovich, who was replaced by former New England defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington. But Van Ness’ value as an IDP asset would be totally destroyed should the Pack go edge at pick No. 23.
Others:
Khalil Mack, LAC: The Bolts jettisoned Joey Bosa but brought back Mack to again pair with young up-and-comer Tuli Tuipulotu. Sure, Mack is already 34, but he’s not that far removed from that magical 2023 season that saw him capture the hearts and minds of IDP enthusiasts with an overall DE1 finish. With Bud Dupree representing the only other notable edge on the depth chart, the Chargers could use a rotational/upside option with day two talent, and I’m fully expecting it to happen.
All Arizona edges: Following a magical Super Bowl and high-profile free agency, the time to sell on Josh Sweat is now. Reunited with former Philadelphia DC Jonathan Gannon, Sweat profiles as the top dog in a room that includes Baron Browning, Zaven Collins, and B.J. Ojulari. The latter three are all obvious losers should the Cardinals dip their toes in the edge rusher pool at either pick No. 16 or 47. But Sweat could also lose just by nature of the larger rotation that would further be diluted by a high draft pick, and he carries the most value of the quartet.
Make Hot-tlanta hot again: Actually, we’re not worried about this; we’re begging for it. Leonard Floyd is set up well for one year here, but even those with shares of Arnold Ebiketie are ready to see something different, and I don’t think Bralen Trice is that guy. Both Ebiketie and Trice would be fine as rotational backups, but we all know the Falcons need to aggressively address the edge.
Interior Defensive Linemen
The defensive tackle class is also pretty deep, with 10-12 big uglies projected to go by the end of day two. From a fantasy perspective, three of those tackles are best fits at the nose, so that should lessen the impact on veterans.
I’m personally rooting for the following teams to gobble up the best defensive tackles: Atlanta, Buffalo, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Los Angeles (the Chargers), Miami, both New Yorks, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. Here are a couple of veterans from other teams I’ll be keeping in mind as the tackles come off the board:
Derrick Brown, CAR
All we saw of Brown in 2024 came in Week 1, when he played 60 snaps prior to suffering a meniscus injury that required surgery. So it’s been a good while since the fantasy goodness of 2023, when the 2020 seventh overall pick broke out with 103 total tackles on 940 snaps. (And an 89 percent snap share!) Brown has never been a big sack guy, with just eight over his first four seasons—that’s two per season for anyone struggling with the numbers.
Carolina, to its credit, decided with or without Brown that it needed some better bodies along the interior after getting rolled by opposing ground games last season (592 rushing attempts for 3,057 yards and 24 touchdowns). It was no surprise to see the Panthers go hard after Milton Williams and eventually land former Chief Tershawn Wharton and former Rams nose Bobby Brown III to accompany Brown and returnee A’Shawn Robinson.
Because Brown is so dependent on volume to get his fantasy production via tackles, the new bigs that came via free agency were already bad news for Brown. If Carolina takes advantage of the deep tackle class and adds a quality prospect, it adds insult to injury for Brown managers.
Darius Robinson, ARI
Robinson, a late first-round pick just one year ago, has only been in the league for one season—and it was an abbreviated season at that. A pre-season calf injury followed by a setback robbed Robinson of two-thirds of his rookie year, and it’s hard to make sense of his value after he provided just two pressures on 183 snaps. From a size and traits perspective, Robinson fits best as a 4-tech/4i, so it got my attention when I noticed Arizona’s interest in Derrick Harmon. The Oregon prospect also profiles as a traditional 3-4 end, and if the Cardinals go that route with the 16th pick, it’s a bad look for Robinson’s NFL future fantasy relevance.
Linebackers
Truth be told, I’m concerned about more linebacker situations than I should be. I have a hard time seeing more than seven rookie off-balls come off the board by the time round three concludes on Friday night, and given last year’s draft results, more than not will come in the third round. Given the wide net most IDP managers throw at the linebacker position, though, I really only want to see linebackers go to Las Vegas. Otherwise, rookies are muddying the water for my high-upside dart throws. Here are 14 off-balls with volatile draft outlooks:
Omar Speights, LAR
It’s possible the Speights hype train reached its peak in the 2024 preseason following a few tweets from superb Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue and the trade of one Ernest Jones. Speights never even overtook Christian Rozeboom as the Rams’ primary off-ball, but the rookie was at least a startable fantasy option in deep leagues from Week 10 onward.
His current competition for snaps is Nate Landman and Tony Fields II, so it seems like a surety that Les Snead and Sean McVay will address the position at some point in the draft. If it’s on day one or two, Speights would take a pretty big hit from a value perspective. If the Rams ignore the position, there’s a pretty good chance Speights will be worthy of regular fantasy starts as an LB2/LB3.
Germaine Pratt, CIN
Pratt requested to be traded earlier in the offseason, and though that hasn’t yet happened, it still seems like a strong possibility that Pratt won’t be on Cincinnati’s roster to start the 2025 campaign. So I’m not so much worried about Pratt getting replaced by a rookie as I am Pratt getting traded during the draft to a less-than-ideal landing spot. Pratt managers are no doubt hoping he’s reunited with former defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo in Indianapolis, but that probably would have happened already if it were going to.
Christian Harris, E.J. Speed, and Henry To’oTo’o, HOU
When Houston hired DeMeco Ryans as its head coach two seasons ago, the fantasy world had visions of Harris developing into a Fred Warner or Dre Greenlaw-level asset. The glasses now required to see that vision—following a third season that saw Harris play just 172 defensive snaps after a long recovery from a preseason calf injury —have to be colored “battle red.” That Harris barely saw the field during a pivotal year for his development might just lead Houston to move on.
Quite a few fantasy managers are probably thinking Speed is that replacement after the former Colt produced at low-end LB1 levels in 2024. But it’s telling that Indianapolis didn’t want him back, he’s soon to be 30, and signed with the Texans on a relatively cheap $3.5 million, one-year contract. As for To’oTo’o, the former fifth-round pick is much better suited to serve as a third off-ball than a primary option.
Azeez Al-Shaair is entrenched here as a top-two linebacker for the next couple of seasons, but I could easily see Houston trying to upgrade on the other three.
Jaylon Carlies, IND
I highlighted Carlies as a buy in a late January edition of The IDP After Show, with the caveat that he needed free agency to work in his favor. Lo and behold, it did, and Carlies remains a big upside swing with potential E.J. Speed production. Carlies spent his rookie year learning the ropes as a linebacker after converting from college safety and showed enough over his 242 defensive snaps to merit strong consideration for a full-time job in a system that uses two full-time off-balls.
As excited as I am for what’s ahead for my many Carlies shares, the reality is that the Colts would be foolhardy to ignore the position in the draft. I’m hoping the draft investment doesn’t come until Saturday, and if that’s the case, any investments we made in Carlies are going to pay hefty dividends.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CLE
Owusu-Koramoah suffered a neck injury during a Week 8 collision with Derrick Henry—a scary moment that resulted in a trip to the hospital for JOK. He hasn't played since, and Owusu-Koramoah’s timetable for a return to the field is a total unknown. There’s speculation that he may never play again. Hence, Cleveland has ample depth at linebacker already, with elder statesman Jordan Hicks leading a room that includes castoffs Devin Bush and Jerome Baker, and homegrown youngsters Mohamoud Diabate, Nathaniel Watson, and Winston Reid.
Should the Browns open Friday night with a linebacker, or even use one of their two third-round picks (67 or 94) on the position, I’m going to be even more concerned about JOK’s football future.
Akeem Davis-Gaither, ARI
Davis-Gaither bided his time in Cincinnati behind Logan Wilson and Pratt, and took advantage of Wilson’s injury in 2024 to put together good enough play to earn a decent payday ($5 million guaranteed) with Arizona. With Mack Wilson the only other proven option on the depth chart, you could argue ADG was one of free agency’s big winners from an IDP point of view. I’m dubious on whether that win will carry through the draft, as the Cardinals have been linked to Alabama prospect Jihaad Campbell in the first round.
If Arizona opts for other positions, ADG is in a really good spot to provide linebacker value. He served well as a low-end LB2 from Weeks 13-17.
Trenton Simpson, BAL
Was there a bigger linebacker bust in 2024 than Simpson? Once Patrick Queen took his talents to Pittsburgh as a free agent, Simpson, a 2023 third-round pick, seemed set to assume the role he was drafted for. Instead, he flopped and fell heavily out of favor over the final third of the regular season and earning just 15 total snaps following Baltimore’s Week 14 bye.
The Ravens will most certainly draft a linebacker. Other than Roquan Smith and Simpson, the team has nothing else to speak of (Jake Hummel?), so depth is needed. An early pick at the position may be the nail in the coffin for Simpson’s life as a fantasy asset.
Dee Winters, SF
I’ve liked Winters as a down-the-road lottery ticket since last offseason, when he started garnering praise from the franchise as a potential future starter. Following Dre Greenlaw’s departure for Denver, a development that San Francisco seemingly did not expect, Winters’ time has now come. That is unless the 49ers fall for one of the draft’s better off-ball prospects. San Fran has four picks in the top 100, and I’d think they’ll prioritize the offensive and defensive lines first and foremost. Any day one or day two pick at linebacker would be cold water on Winters and rising sophomore Tatum Bethune.
James Williams and Cedric Gray, TEN
Any investment in the 2024 rookies was a small one, especially in the case of Williams, who impressed me with his versatility and play on limited snaps. So, the value drop would be minimal for either Williams or Gray. But there’s opportunity in Tennessee for one or both, with Cody Barton representing the only “sure thing” at the second level. The Titans have plenty of other needs—namely quarterback and EDGE, unless Arden Key, Lorenzo Carter, and Dre’Mont Jones float your boat as a fearsome threesome—and a big gap between picks 35 and 103.
Junior Colson and Denzel Perryman, LAC
Perryman requires no explanation; he seems like one of those linebackers with one foot out of the league, but he keeps getting chances due to the misfortune of others. But Colson? Truth be told, I’m not that worried, but the Chargers have apparently shown serious interest in Carson Schwesinger, bringing the UCLA prospect in for a pre-draft visit after sending linebackers coach NaVorro Bowman to the Bruins’ pro day. Should Schwesinger (say that 10 times fast) end up in L.A. along with breakout Daiyan Henley, it would certainly cap Colson’s three-down potential. And Perryman wouldn’t even be worth consideration as a short-term injury handcuff.
Safeties
I’m not overly smitten with this safety class. In fact, it’s pretty weak, and that’s been a recent draft trend. I could see five to seven off the board by the end of day two, and the depth just isn’t there. There are multiple teams with safety needs and not a lot of immediate help in the draft. This could create higher demand for Nick Emmanwori, Malaki Starks, and Xavier Watts, and in particular, I’ll be watching to see if there’s an impact on any of the following veterans.
I’ll be actively rooting for the top safety options to go to Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami, the New York Jets, Seattle, and Tampa Bay.
Jaquan Brisker, CHI
The Bears are probably feeling fine about Kevin Byard for another season, and Jonathan Owens is also in the fold here. Brisker, though, is a concern due to the concussion that sidelined him for the final 12 games of Chicago’s season. The Bears need to address the position with an eye toward 2026 and beyond, but a round-two pick (Chicago owns picks 39 and 41) could spell trouble for Brisker’s health.
Geno Stone, CIN
The Bengals went all in on Stone last offseason, and his 2024 play doesn’t warrant the nearly $8 million cap hit. Cincinnati doesn’t have anywhere else to turn at the moment, but a first-round investment on Emmanwori or Starks would impact Stone’s viability as a fantasy S3.
Ji’Ayir Brown, SF
Brown endured an up-and-down season, and San Francisco was clearly frustrated with him at times in 2024. But Talanoa Hufanga left in free agency, leaving a void next to new starter Malik Mustapha. Brown is the odds-on favorite over free-agent signee Jason Pinnock, but I could also see the 49ers going safety in the second round if the board breaks that way.
Sydney Brown, PHI
Brown is shaping up to be a major winner following Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s trade to Houston. If you’ve been patient with the rising third-year safety, you should see a payoff in 2025. A high pick at safety seems like a remote but still possible option.
Isaiah Pola-Mao, LV
The 2022 undrafted free agent inked a two-year deal with Vegas for borderline starter money. The Raiders also brought in Jeremy Chinn, but Pola-Mao would certainly be considered a draft loser should the Raiders go safety at either 37 or 68. He’s S3 material should he not be impacted by a draft pick.
Demani Richardson, CAR
The undrafted rookie had some big tackle outings when called upon last season, and by the looks of Carolina's depth chart behind signee Tre’Von Moehrig, the Panthers may be calling upon Richardson a lot in 2025. Still, it seems likely that Carolina will address this position at some point before day two concludes. If not, Richardson looks like a nice end-of-roster addition.
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