Darkhorse IDP Candidates to Finish as the EDGE1 in 2026
These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning ED1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.
Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.
The EDGE position is a difficult group to expect major change at the top of the yearly finishers, evidenced by T.J. Watt taking the top spot in three of the past five years. This is also because the best and most consistent pass rushers will remain the most stable annual bets, and more often than not, one of the highly drafted EDGEs comes through and finishes as the overall ED1. That being said, it doesn’t mean it’s impossible for positive sack variance to swing in favor of an unexpected high-end pass rusher to break through.
These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 12 at their positions, according to our ADP IDP-only best-ball drafts, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found here.
Before locking in our choice for the dark horse EDGE1 for 2026, it’s important to look back at the past few seasons to see the anatomy of what made each EDGE1 finisher in IDP.
Step one to delivering even a top-12 performance at the position is almost certainly going to require at least double-digit sacks, and for those who don’t reach the high-end of that range, the need for another position-leading statistic like tackles, QB hits, or other big plays will be key.
This was the case with T.J. Watt in 2024, who, despite managing just 11.5 sacks on the year, filled the rest of the stat sheet, which included a league-leading six forced fumbles.
Tackle production is important, and to reach that EDGE1 finish, players will often need to deliver at least 40 tackles (excluding sacks), with the lone exception being Myles Garrett last year, who made up for it by breaking the NFL single-season sack record.
The primary focus in putting a player over the top will be sacks, and to predict who will push for high-end sack totals, we need to dive into the underlying metrics.
Expected Sacks, as explained here, are our most stable and predictive metric for future sacks, so performing well in this regard will be crucial to 2026 success.
Each of these ED1 finishers all delivered near the very top of the position in Expected Sacks during those seasons.
Each of the past five ED1 finishers in Big-3 Scoring also finished no worse than top-10 in PFF pass-rush grade (min. 250 pass-rush snaps) in those seasons.
Typically, we’re looking for players well above average in pressure rate and win rate per season (min. 250 pass-rush snaps).
With all of these criteria in mind, we can turn our attention to the top candidates to finish as the darkhorse ED1 this coming season.
Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts
Latu enters Year 3 of his NFL career on a positive trajectory in both production and underlying metrics. Building on a strong rookie season in 2024, Latu delivered new career highs in PFF pass-rush grade (77.0), overall grade (84.1), run defense grade (72.4), total pressures (61), sacks (8.5), and Expected Sack ranking (92nd percentile). Everything we want to see a highly drafted defensive lineman improve in during their sophomore season, Latu accomplished handily, as expected of an elite performer in our prospect model.
The first two seasons of a defensive lineman’s NFL career are often considered developmental, with players typically truly reaching their potential in Years 3 and 4. For Latu, considering his early success already in the league, that leap could be substantial in 2026, to the point where he really could deliver on his elite prospect profile and not just crack the top-12 scorers at his position after finishing as ED13 last year, but truly push for a position-leading finish.
While Latu doesn’t check every box we’re looking for yet, his trajectory entering Year 3 is what we’re banking on to help him meet all those requirements with ease. Latu’s snap share jumped from 54% as a rookie to 68% last year, with the potential to reach ~75% in Year 3, as is the norm for most top EDGEs. With increased playing time, Latu has more potential for sacks and tackles, putting that 40-plus target well within reach after finishing with 39 last year. Latu also finished just outside the top-20 in PFF pass-rush grade and win rate in Year 2, but considering his talent and prospect profile, he’s on track to deliver there as well.
Currently being drafted as the overall ED20, Latu should, at the very least, be a value for IDP managers betting on his Year 3 leap, even if the overall ED1 doesn’t come to fruition. However, with all the evidence backing him and his elite potential, Latu gets the first nod for me as a darkhorse ED1 option in 2026.
George Karlaftis, Kansas City Chiefs
As a former first-round pick, Karlaftis hasn’t quite lived up to his potential as an IDP, though he’s been a solid and reliable NFL asset for the Chiefs’ defensive line. Up until last season, Karlaftis was also arguably underwhelming as a pass rusher as well, but he seemingly found a new gear in Year 4, delivering career-highs in PFF pass-rush grade (75.8), pass-rush win rate (16.6%), total pressures (66), and Expected Sacks ranking (95th percentile). If Karlaftis is going to perform at this level as his new norm, he’ll be a clear candidate to push for a top IDP finish in 2026.
With Karlaftis’ pass-rush metrics finally catching up to his playing time, he has real potential to check every box necessary to meet our requirements and push for that ED1 range. The pass-rush potential was one of the final pieces of the puzzle for Karlaftis to collect, as he’s typically averaged over 75% of defensive snaps over his past three seasons, and the tackle production at that level of playing time should come more often than not. Karlaftis has also delivered above the 65th percentile mark in Tackles versus Expected for the first time in his career, as his efficiency has finally improved.
With Year 4 being such an important one for defensive linemen, it was promising to see Karlaftis hit these new career highs by such a wide margin, and if he continues to improve into 2026, he’s well worth targeting in drafts. Much like Latu, Karlaftis should, at the very least, outperform his current ADP of ED30. Even if he doesn’t finish as the overall ED1, highlighting him here as a player to target should still pay off for you, the valued reader and savvy IDP gamer.
Jaelan Phillips, Carolina Panthers
Phillips being on this list will almost certainly be a point of contention for some IDP managers who have heard this song and dance in the past, before he ultimately lets us down. And as a Jaelan Phillips apologist, I nevertheless understand the frustration around him as an IDP. However, I’m nothing if not a glutton for punishment and a believer that positive regression is real (it is), and Phillips will be a beneficiary of good luck with his new team in Carolina.
This past season, Phillips played 17 games after combining for just 12 in the two seasons prior. Health has typically been Phillips’ biggest hurdle, and if the injuries are truly behind him, like he proved last season, then that’s one massive step toward him achieving ED1 success for the first time in his career. And Phillips has come close to cracking that top-12 in the past, finishing as the overall ED16 in 2022, and was ED9 in points per game in 2023. This production has often been driven by strong underlying pass-rush metrics and high-end tackle potential, with him finishing in the 94th percentile in Tackles versus Expected in 2022 and 2023, and the 70th percentile in 2025 while playing for two separate teams.
Phillips posted his second career 90th-plus percentile finish in Expected Sacks this past season, and, given his status as the unquestioned ED1 with the Panthers now, he should get every opportunity to realize that pass-rush potential. And it is real potential, despite what his underwhelming sack total from last year will tell you; Phillips’ Expected Sack mark and top-10 win rate for the position indicate clear positive regression and a player due for so much more.
Of course, ED1 overall is a long shot for any player, and probably even more so for Phillips, but as an IDP being drafted as the ED22 right now, there’s so much more potential for him, specifically, especially if he can stay healthy. And that’s really what we’re looking for from this group: a healthy season is what we need to help them reach their elite IDP potential.
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