One IDP Question for Every AFC and NFC East Team
Mike Woellert turns his attention to the AFC and NFC East teams and one question that will have ramifications on the IDPs in these divisions.
We’re on to the third installment in our offseason “one question” series, this one focused on the AFC and NFC East. If you missed the first installment, we’ve already covered the North and South teams. These divisions are home to legends like Bobby Wagner, up-and-coming talents like Donovan Ezeiruaku, and players we’re hoping for bounce-backs from (hello, Chop Robinson).
There’s a lot more to dig into here, so let’s get into it.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Which IDPs will benefit under new defensive coordinator, Jim Leonhard?
Jim Leonhard has spent the last few seasons with Denver as the DB/Assistant Coach and Pass Game Coordinator. He now gets the chance to lead a defense as the new DC in Buffalo. Although you might see a slight change in their base, Leonhard and the Bills will still be nickel-heavy with multiple looks and an emphasis on turning the ball over with structured pressure.
Gregory Rousseau might play more as a stand-up edge in the new front, especially if they play more 5-man fronts. I would expect a higher blitz rate, as Denver was 5th in blitz rate at 32.1% and led the league in sacks (68). I’m buying Rousseau as a high upside DL2, as he could be Leonhard’s Nik Bonitto.
There’s a bit of uncertainty at the LB position. Terrel Bernard has had some health concerns, Matt Milano is a free agent, and there are still some questions about whether Dorian Williams and Joe Andreessen can handle a bigger workload. The off-ball LBs will be asked to stop the run and be sent on selective blitzes.
If Leonhard is going to continue to utilize a nickel base, I like Taron Johnson’s prospects at IDP production. He’ll profile well for tackle volume. If the Bills look to go split-safety/match coverages, there’s usually a downhill runner and I think that guy is Cole Bishop.
At this point, I’m targeting Greg Rousseau, Taron Johnson, and Cole Bishop.
Miami Dolphins
Is 2026 the breakout year for Chop Robinson?
After a promising rookie year, Chop Robinson disappointed in his sophomore campaign. He saw a drastic decrease in his pass rush metrics across the board. It also didn’t help that his usage decreased by 35%, as he appeared in just 417 snaps.
66% decrease in pressures
52% decrease in pressure rate
33% decrease in sacks
I’m actually surprised he finished with 4 sacks. If we’re going to look at the glass half-full, Robinson’s production picked up a tick after the bye week. Over the final 6 weeks, Robinson had 4 games of 2+ pressures. His pressure rate remained around 7.7%, but he recorded sacks in three of his final 6 games.
Robinson comes in with a plan, as he uses his hands to swipe, sees the QB moving, and uses a spin to disengage and get the sack:
What was also encouraging was his pass rush get-off (0.87 seconds) and time to pressure (2.78 seconds). New DC Sean Duggan should keep a 43 base, which should play to the strengths of the roster. Robinson is an explosive pass rusher who has provided elite metrics. Bradley Chubb’s release offers some salary relief, so I foresee an increase in Robinson’s snaps, and if he’s on the field, we’ve seen he can produce.
New England Patriots
If the Patriots don’t bring back K’Lavon Chaisson, who steps up as EDGE2?
K’Lavon Chaisson is expected to hit, and while the Patriots want to bring him back, I’m sure there will be competition for his services. As the roster stands, who steps as the EDGE2 if Chaisson dips?
Anfernee Jennings has 7.5 sacks over his five seasons with New England and has produced a career pressure rate of 9.1%. He’s also added 19 career QB hits. These aren’t numbers that signal he’s ready to be a contributor. In 2024, he appeared in 831 snaps with 348 pass rush snaps and generated an 8.9% pressure rate with 3 sacks.
Elijah Ponder was a bit of a surprise as a UDFA. He finished with 4 sacks and an 11.4% pressure rate, while adding 4 TFLs over 314 snaps. He was used primarily as a pass rush specialist, as he saw just 83 run snaps. This was an impressive pass rush rep against All-Pro, Tristan Wirfs:
Fifth-round pick Bradyn Swinson only saw 27 total snaps in his rookie year. Mike Vrabel likes Swinson and did what he could to keep other teams from poaching him from the practice squad, bringing him up to the 53-man roster in November. He was a productive edge at LSU, so we’ll see if he has the opportunity to earn snaps.
Things are going to change with New England’s EDGE room between now and the draft, but I think Ponder has the most upside at this point.
New York Jets
Was Malachi Moore a one-hit wonder?
Out of the 2025 safety rookie class, I didn’t expect Malachi Moore to be the tackle leader of the group. Over his first 5 games, he had a full-time role in just 1 of them. But from then on, he was a full-time safety. Moore appeared in 949 defensive snaps and played 60% of his snaps near the line of scrimmage (LOS), including a 34% box rate.
Moore had 25% of his tackles (24) come as an off-ball LB, while 49% came as a deep or free safety. He was consistent throughout the season, with 11 games of 5+ tackles and 6 games with 8+ tackles. He finished the season with a 10% tackle rate, which is a solid number for a DB.
On this play, he sheds like an LB and gets the tackle on Bijan Robinson, limiting him to just 2 yards:
With Quincy Williams scheduled to be a free agent, I’d expect Moore’s usage near the LOS and as a box to continue. The Jets hired Brian Duker as their DC, but I expect Aaron Glenn’s fingerprints to be all over the defense.
I like Moore as a DB2/3 in 2026 redraft formats.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
What can we expect from Donovan Ezeiruaku in his second year?
I had Donovan Ezeiruaku as my DL/EDGE1 among the 2025 rookie class. Although he fell a bit short of expectations, I thought there was a lot to like during his rookie year.
He had 9 games of multiple pressures and finished second among the Dallas edge rushers in pressures (36). Although you wanted to see more sacks, he produced 12 QB hits and was dependable in the run with 40 tackles, 9 TFLs, and 18 run stops (tackles that resulted in a failure for the offense).
If you watch the film, you see an NFL edge rusher. He has a moveset and a plan to get to the QB. There were multiple pass rushes where he was just a step short of recording a sack. This was a solid pass rush rep against one of the best LTs in the league, Jordan Mailata. He gets a good jump off the snap, uses his hands to swipe away at the block, and dips under, just missing on a sack:
Under new DC, Christian Parker, Ezeiruaku should see more time as a stand-up EDGE, and should move around to exploit favorable matchups. If they disguise rushes, that plays right into Ezeiruaku’s advantages by setting up tackles with his setup and counters. Parker has also stressed teaching, so that can translate into tighter rush plans and improved hand usage/counters.
I think Ezeiruaku is in for a big sophomore campaign in Dallas’ defense.
New York Giants
Which IDPs will benefit from new DC, Dennard Wilson?
Here’s what we know about Dennard Wilson: he likes to use simulated pressures, rotations, and relies on his fronts to create pressure. How does that translate?
First, I think we can expect to see a bump in sack production out of Abdul Carter. Carter had just a half-sack over his first 10 games, but finished with 3.5 sacks over his final 5. The pass rush metrics were well above average, producing a 13% pressure rate and 20.9% win rate, while leading the Giants in pressures (66) and QB hits (18). His athleticism and pass rush traits looked to translate. Wilson’s approach to aggressive coverage could create more coverage sacks.
Brian Burns, although he didn’t win as many reps, was a relentless pass rusher and recorded a career-high 16.5 sacks. He also added 22 TFLs. Burns will be utilized to manufacture pressure without selling out on the blitz. You could see more stunts and cleaner rushes.
Wilson likes to use movement and stress protections to help create more 1-on-1 matchups, which is right in Dexter Lawrence’s wheelhouse as a game wrecker. I think Lawrence will bounce back from a disappointing 2025 season.
The linebacker position is in a bit of flux. Micah McFadden is a free agent, and Bobby Okereke is the subject of salary cap cuts. However, Okereke is still on the roster and should keep the green dot responsibility. Wilson’s scheme should allow the LBs to be around the ball and clean up any plays around the LOS.
Defensive backs Dru Phillips and Tyler Nubin should also benefit. Phillips has a dependable tackle floor as a slot/nickel corner. Wilson’s defenses also rely on disguised coverages and safeties who can rotate down to clean up tackles. Wilson uses nickel/sub-packages over 70% of the time with a zone focus.
In IDP leagues for 2026, I’m targeting Carter, Burns, Lawrence (DT/true position), Phillips, and Nubin.
Philadelphia Eagles
Can Jalyx Hunt reach 10 sacks in 2026?
Jalyx Hunt was a popular breakout/post-draft hype candidate in 2025 following his solid playoff run in 2024. During that run, he generated a 13% pressure rate with 1.5 sacks. He produced a 25% pressure rate in the Super Bowl and contributed a half-sack.
His 2025 got off to a sluggish start (to say the least). He didn’t produce a sack for the first 7 games, but generated consistent pressure with a 13.9% rate.
From Week 8 on, over the next 10 games, he produced a 17.8% win rate and a 17.4% pressure rate, resulting in 6.5 sacks. He also produced 10 QB hits. Coincidentally, it was around this time that the Eagles acquired Jaelan Phillips.
There were a few instances where he was just a half-second short of the sack. I thought this was a good rep here, as Taylor Decker just moved him off the path:
The metrics indicate a double-digit sack season is doable for Hunt. He finished the season with a 15.9% pressure rate (4% quick pressure rate) and 17 QB hits. Vic Fangio’s defense, which creates 1-on-1 matchups and his two-high shells, forces the QB to hold the ball longer than they want.
Even if the Eagles don’t bring back Phillips, Hunt carries double-digit sack upside in 2026, especially playing alongside Moro Ojomo and Jalen Carter.
Washington Commanders
If the Commanders don’t address the LB position in free agency, can Jordan Magee be a viable LB2?
The Commanders’ LB room is in a bit of a transition period as of now. Bobby Wagner is a pending free agent, leaving Frankie Luvu as the veteran of the group. Jordan Magee saw 364 snaps in 2025, mostly playing on early downs and as the LB3 in their base defense. He finished with a 14.8% tackle rate and added 3 TFLs.
I’m not sure I see a three-down role, let alone a full-time LB here. Against the run, he showed good burst off the snap, but didn’t have the processing or natural instincts to put himself in position to make plays. He’d often overrun his run fits and run into traffic. In coverage, he’d often lose track of his assignments.
When you look at his PFF grades, they tell the same story. Kain Medrano was drafted in 2025 and he showed above-average coverage skills and has a bit more athletic upside than Magee. Ale Kaho also provides a bit more coverage upside over Magee. He also gets to gaps a bit quicker.
Even if the Commanders don’t address the position in free agency, I’d imagine they’ll bring in competition in the draft.
I am not counting on Magee to have a significant role in 2026.
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With Okereke out who are you targeting?