One IDP Question for Every AFC and NFC South Team
Mike Woellert poses one question for all eight South teams that IDP managers need to be thinking about headed into 2026.
Our offseason “one question” series rolls on this week. Last week, I answered eight questions that could have IDP ramifications with teams in the AFC North and NFC North. This week, our attention shifts to the AFC South and NFC South.
With big news from this past weekend surrounding the Atlanta Falcons and James Pearce Jr., the NFC South in particular is in the spotlight. Let’s dive into it.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Has Will Anderson hit his ceiling?
Will Anderson enjoyed a third-year breakout (after his second-year breakout) in Demeco Ryans’ defense, racking up 12 sacks and 11 QB hits alongside Danielle Hunter, whom he has benefited playing alongside over the last two seasons.
After recording 11 sacks and 60 pressures in 2024, Anderson led the league in pressures in 2025 with 102. (He was one of four edge rushers to record triple-digit pressures.) His pressure rate ballooned to 19.3% while his win rate improved from 21.9% to 32.6%. He only had two games with fewer than 4 pressures.
There were a few instances where he was close to finishing sacks and could have had at least 14. He just missed on this one against Indianapolis:
Have we seen Anderson’s ceiling? I don’t think we have. If he tweaks his finishing mechanics and lowers his time to sack (5.2 seconds), I think 15 sacks is in the conversation. He had a 6.7% quick pressure rate—which is a pressure generated in fewer than 2.5 seconds—and a 2.72 time to pressure. If he just flattens those rushes and finishes, we could see him hit his ceiling in 2026.
Indianapolis Colts
Will the Colts move on from Zaire Franklin?
If there was a year for the Colts to move on from their longtime LB, this is it. Statistically, Zaire Franklin had one of his worst years since becoming a starter, recording fewer than 160 tackles since 2021. He also failed to reach 90 solo tackles for the first time in the last three seasons.
Although he had fewer missed tackles than in previous seasons (21), he missed tackles at a higher rate (13.9%). He also had his worst career PFF grades across the board:
Overall: 38.4
Run Defense: 54.9
Tackling: 47.3
Coverage: 29.9
Those numbers aren’t great. I’m not sure I’m buying the ankle injury, but it was a factor, and he may not be a great fit in Lou Anarumo’s system. More 5-2 fronts, a higher man coverage rate (9 fewer tackles in zone this year than last), a better offense, fewer defensive snaps, and a decreased tackle share contributed to his decrease.
The Colts can get out of Franklin’s contract with a $2.5 million dead cap hit. If Franklin lands with a new team, I might be a bit higher on his chances of a bounce back, but if he remains with Indianapolis, I’m not targeting him as an LB1.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Is Jack Kiser in line for a second-year breakout?
I envision a friendly LB2 competition in Jacksonville this year, especially if Devin Lloyd leaves to test the free agent waters (which is expected).
Jack Kiser cut his teeth as a rookie primarily playing special teams. Kiser had a 75.2 PFF special teams grade and recorded 4 tackles in 14 games (he finished the season on IR). In 43 snaps across those 14 games, he produced a 32.6% tackle rate.
If you take Lloyd out of the equation, the LB2 competition could be made up of Ventrell Miller, Yasir Abdullah, and Branson Combs. Even though Kiser was a 4th-round pick, there’s an expectation of development in his second year and a chance to compete for the role.
It’s also possible, but unlikely, that the Jaguars could move on from Foyesade Oluokun. I was playing around with the new Armchair GM tool, and if Jacksonville makes Oluokun a pre-June 1 cut, it saves just over $2 million. But if they give him a post-June 1 designation, it frees up $11.5 million. He will be 31 for the 2026 season.
I think Kiser is a buy in dynasty, and if he wins the job, has LB3/4 value in redraft.
Tennessee Titans
Which IDPs will thrive under Robert Saleh’s defense?
Robert Saleh typically features a single-high/Cover-3 and uses a four-man front to generate pressure. He has the philosophy that the front is the driver of the defense: generate pressure, play fundamental coverage, and limit explosive plays.
He wants his line to be gap sound, set edges, force and swarm, and let the back end clean up the mess. I’m not expecting a high blitz rate, as the 49ers were near the bottom in blitz rate at 21.1%. The 49ers and Titans run a similar zone scheme.
Saleh inherits a disruptive and dominant 3-technique in Jeffery Simmons. He’s coming off a career-year in sacks (11) and the most QBPs generated since 2021 (64). Simmons also produced a solid tackle rate for an IDL at 8.8%. Saleh’s scheme should continue to generate 1-on-1 situations.
Saleh will probably shift from a 34 to a 43 look, but will still be nickel-heavy, utilizing a four-man front. They’re going to need to address the edge in free agency or the draft.
Cody Barton will probably return, but he does carry a dead cap of $4.9 million (with $3.23 million saved) if they want to move on. Cedric Gray was the playmaker of the defense, and I foresee that continuing in Saleh’s defense. His scheme/Cover-3 structure should allow for more tackles.
With Gus Bradley on as DC, he and Saleh share similar philosophies. This year, however, could be big for a safety. Bradley usually deploys a consistent safety in the box/near the line of scrimmage. The role here is the extra hitter who can trigger on the run/pass quickly. Amani Hooker, as of now, looks to be that box safety.
I like Kevin Winston to remain at the nickel, and with offenses living in 11-personnel, he should see plenty of snaps and could be part of the underneath coverage structure.
I’m targeting Simmons, Gray, Hooker, and Winston in IDP leagues.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Who steps up with a potential James Pearce Jr. suspension?
Well, James Pearce Jr. got into a heap of trouble and is facing some serious charges (including prison time). There is a wide range of outcomes here, but he’s facing a lengthy suspension, and if Arthur Blank wants to cut his losses, Pearce could just be released. Just as Atlanta seems to find their footing with their edge rushers, a big Molotov cocktail was thrown into the locker room.
So, who’ll step up in a potential Pearce absence?
Leonard Floyd and Arnold Ebiketie are free agents, so they become priority signings. Even though Ebiketie is coming off a career-low 2 sacks, he generated a 13.7% pressure rate and 21.4% win rate over 183 pass rush snaps. Floyd is getting up in age, so Atlanta could look to free agency to add a veteran.
Can Jalon Walker step up in his second year? Walker missed a few games, but wasn’t as efficient as an EDGE. He finished with 5.5 sacks but a 10.3% pressure rate, adding just 33 tackles. His snaps/usage will go up in his second year, but will the efficiency?
Brandon Dorlus had a productive season as an IDL. He finished with a solid 8.3% pressure rate; however, his pressure-to-sack conversion rate is highly unsustainable at 32.7%.
After a promising 2025 season, the Falcons are in a position to address the edge once again after spending two first-round picks on the position last year.
I’m probably fading Dorlus and Walker in redraft leagues.
Carolina Panthers
Did the Panthers stumble into their EDGE1 in Nic Scourton?
After toiling in mediocrity post-Brian Burns trade (and that’s putting it nicely), the Panthers might have found a diamond in the rough with Nic Scourton.
The Panthers traded 4 picks to move up to 51 to secure his services.
While he started slow, with just 6 pressures over his first 6 games, he had 9 games of multiple pressures over his next 11, with an 11.6% pressure rate and 5 sacks. He finished the season with sacks in 3 of his last 4 games, a 12.2% pressure rate, and an 18.6% win rate. He’d finish the season appearing in 68% of the snaps. A pretty hefty workload for a rookie.
I thought this was a solid rep, where he uses his speed-to-power to get leverage on the tackle and generate the turnover:
I think there’s a lot to like about Scourton headed into his second season. Just watching him, you could see the motor and his run defense improved throughout the season. He finished 4th among rookie edges with a 63.9 run grade and 2nd in run stops (23).
He had a strong finish to his rookie year and has emerged as the DL1 of the group. If Scourton can get some help, and if his pass rush development continues, there’s a case for him being a DL3 in deeper leagues.
New Orleans Saints
Is Danny Stutsman ready for the green dot?
I believe Danny Stutsman was drafted as Demario Davis’ heir apparent and that he’s ready for the green dot in 2026. As a rookie, Stutsman wasn’t asked to do too much, as he appeared in just 204 snaps. However, he saw more time near the end of the season, appearing in 45% of the snaps over the final three games (91 snaps). He produced a 15.4% tackle rate, tallying 14 tackles over that span.
He’s showing good instincts and processing already. Here, he does a good job of seeing the cutback and clogs the gap on the back, resulting in a tackle of no gain:
If Davis does indeed leave New Orleans, I’m buying Stutsman as the next green dot. Why? When I evaluated him coming into the NFL, I projected him to be a solid off-ball LB in schemes that prioritize run defense and allow him to attack downhill, and a zone-heavy scheme that limits his man-coverage exposure, leveraging his instincts and blitzing ability. The Saints ran zone nearly 78% of the time, and Stutsman graded much better in zone (65.9) than in man (30.9).
While not the coverage LB that Davis was, Stutsman is vocal and did show flashes in the run and check-downs. He also plays with tenacity and has a high motor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What will Tampa Bay’s LB room look like if Lavonte David leaves?
If Seattle can move on from Bobby Wagner, it’s possible Tampa Bay can move on from Lavonte David, who is set to be a free agent again in 2026.
If David does leave, the first name to pay attention to is SirVcea Dennis, whose first season as a full-time off-ball LB saw some ups and downs. Coverage was an issue, as he was frequently picked on by opposing QBs. He saw 60 targets, was responsible for 635 yards, and was 4th among off-ball LBs in YAC (434 yards). He was a solid pass rush backer and provided above-average run defense. He’s still on a cheap contract.
Anthony Walker and Deion Jones are set to be free agents after signing one-year deals. Nick Jackson signed a two-year deal as a UDFA. I’m intrigued by Jackson’s potential, even though he played just 18 snaps. He showed some flashes during the preseason—granted, it was against backups. Jackson is a nice throw-in in a dynasty deal, and I might sell high on Dennis.
We’re probably looking at a revamped LB room, as the Buccaneers are likely addressing LB long-term through free agency or the draft. I’ve seen Sonny Styles and CJ Allen mocked to Tampa Bay in the 1st. I’ve also seen Jacob Rodriguez in the 3rd.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a run at guys like Devin Bush, Devin Lloyd, or even Nakobe Dean in free agency. Lloyd would fit in with his pass rush and turnover potential. If David has truly played his last down as a Buccaneer, this room could look vastly different in 2026 and beyond.
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Is Carlie’s from Indy a cut at this point?