NFC Coaching Changes: How the 10 New Defensive Coordinators Will Impact IDP
After looking at the AFC, Mike Woellert examines the new NFC defensive coordinators and their impact on IDP leagues.
Last week, we looked at the potential impact of new defensive coordinators in the AFC. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC and its 10 new DCs.
Below, we’ll look at the new DCs, their philosophies, and who to target in IDP drafts.
Atlanta Falcons
Ryan Nielsen departs after one year with the Falcons. New head coach Raheem Morris brings in Jimmy Lake as his new defensive coordinator.
Defensive Philosophy
It does look like there’ll be a scheme shift to a 34, but it’ll use multiple fronts as soon as they see 11 personnel or less. Lake wants them to play fast and physical. I would expect the Falcons to deploy more subpackages than remain in their base.
Lake and Morris share the same defensive principles. In his stint with the Rams, he deployed dime/single-LB 46% of the time.
Defensive Line Unit
Ryan Nielsen did a solid job with the DL unit. They doubled their sack output from 2022 to 2023. Will a scheme change hinder their progress? Grady Jarrett is entering his 10th season. Arnold Ebiketie had a nice season on the edge alongside Bud Dupree, combining for 12.5 sacks. They still need to get more production from this group. An off-ball LB shouldn’t be third among defenders in sacks.
Linebacker Unit
Troy Andersen should be at full health as he returns from a pectoral injury. I love that Barrett Ruud is the LB coach, and should be able to coach and develop these guys. Kaden Elliss enjoyed a breakout season. Nate Landman was productive thanks to the volume he inherited once Andersen was lost for the year.
Defensive Back Unit
Richie Grant was a three-down player through nine weeks but saw a steady decline in snaps. At one point, he saw 11% of the snaps in Week 15. I’m hoping Lake utilizes him in the same way, up near the line of scrimmage.
IDP Targets in 2024
Updated 07/29/2024: I’m not too keen on any of the defensive linemen. If I’m looking for a late-round EDGE, Arnold Ebiketie has some upside. I might be off Tory Andersen, as he’s on the outside looking in as the LB3. I think whoever gets the dot will be the lone off-ball to own. Right now, Nate Landman and Kaden Elliss are rotating when on the field together. Richie Grant and Jessie Bates are the two DB targets I’m drafting.
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears opt to go with Eric Washington as their defensive coordinator. This is his second stint with the Bears after serving as defensive assistant and defensive line coach between 2008-2010.
Defensive Philosophy
Washington looks to bring a pass-rush presence and improve a unit that ranked near the bottom in sacks. Matt Eberflus will still call the defensive plays; however, Washington will still be able to put his imprint on the unit.
I’d expect the Bears to remain a nickel defense, but Washington might implement some multiple fronts or odd looks. Coming from Buffalo, he could use more of a rotation on the line, but the Bears are bereft of the talent upfront Buffalo had.
Defensive Line Unit
The addition of Washington could help Gervon Dexter and Montez Sweat. Dexter had one start as a rookie but did play all 17 games in the B-gap. Dexter and Sweat are going to be an interesting duo. I also like the potential of DeMarcus Walker. Sweat will probably see the majority of the snaps, but there could be a rotation among the other linemen.
Washington did wonders with the Bills and AJ Epenesa and Ed Oliver enjoyed career years.
Linebacker Unit
The linebacker unit is pretty simple. It’s a 2-LB system and they used single-LB well below the league average and three-LBs above the league average. TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds are the names here.
Defensive Back Unit
The safety room has become a bit crowded with the addition of Kevin Byard. The Bears were in nickel nearly 75% of the time and their base 25%. Hopefully, their defense isn’t as vanilla in 2024. Jaquan Brisker had a 44% box rate, and I’m expecting that to continue in 2024. Byard fits what Washington wants to do.
IDP Targets in 2024
Montez Sweat is a DL1 and I like Gervon Dexter as a sleeper in DT-required leagues. TJ Edwards is a weekly LB1 and Tremaine Edmunds is a weekly LB2. I’m targeting Jaquan Brisker as a DB2 with DB1 upside as long as he maintains his LOS/box role.
Dallas Cowboys
A familiar face returns to the NFC. Mike Zimmer returns to the NFL as the defensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys.
Defensive Philosophy
Mike Zimmer has always emphasized physicality with a focus on run defense. He’ll be versatile in his fronts and will bring pressure. In his last season with the Vikings, his most deployed look was a 4-2-5 nickel and he blitzed nearly 25% of the time. He still brought pressure with 4-man fronts. There will be an emphasis on pressure without blitzing.
This is what I think you can expect a Mike Zimmer defense to look like.
Defensive Line Unit
This unit begins and ends with Micah Parsons. As he goes, so do the Cowboys. I think Zimmer would be foolish to move Parsons around from EDGE to off-ball LB. Sam Williams is a high-upside sack specialist. Mazi Smith has upside in his second season and should see an increase in usage at 3-technique or even a 1-tech.
Linebacker Unit
Leighton Vander Esch retired and Zimmer was fortunate that Eric Kendricks changed his mind about joining the 49ers. We’ll see how quickly Demarvion Overshown will be ready after tearing his ACL ahead of his rookie year. Another question is how Markquese Bell will be utilized. He was deployed in the box for the majority of his snaps. Damone Clark still lurks in the LB room, as well.
I’m still projecting Zimmer to be a nickel/2-LB defense. Zimmer is more than familiar with Kendricks and he should wear the dot to call the plays. Zimmer likes bigger bodies, so that bodes well for Overshown and Clark to play alongside Kendricks. Whoever wins the LB2 role will have IDP value.
Defensive Back Unit
I can see Zimmer moving Markquese Bell from LB back to DB, as he’s a bit lighter than Zimmer likes in his LBs. Probably as a single-high safety and he’s got the flexibility to play man and zone.
IDP Targets for 2024
Micah Parsons will be a top DL/EDGE target in all formats. Eric Kendricks should be considered a top-20 LB, as he should be the one calling the plays. As I mentioned, whoever wins the LB2 spot will be an IDP target.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have moved on from Joe Woods and dipped their toes in the college ranks for their defensive coordinator position. Jeff Hafley joins Green Bay after serving as Boston College’s head coach for the last four seasons.
Defensive Philosophy
Hafley inherits a defense with some solid pieces. He’ll run a mix of zone and press coverage, with a preference for man. He’ll keep it simple, and will probably run a base 43 and deploy an attacking style that has been compared to the 49ers and Texans.
Even though the base will be 43, it’ll adapt based on the opponent. Although the NFL is primarily a 4-2-5, they could run their base 30% of the time, which means three LBs.
Defensive Line Unit
The Packers are stout up front with Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt. On the edge, you have Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, then second-year rusher Lukas Van Ness. Van Ness had a strong finish to his rookie year, producing an 11.5% pressure rate and sacks in five of his last nine.
Linebacker Unit
The Packers released veteran De’Vondre Campbell. Hafley didn’t say whether Quay Walker would continue to man the middle and their LB2 is Isaiah McDuffie. They do need to add some depth if they plan on fielding three LBs on 30% of their snaps.
Defensive Back Unit
The big addition is Xavier McKinney. McKinney is definitely a fit for Hafley’s defense, but the cupboard is a bit bare at safety outside of McKinney. The cornerbacks are a solid group. Keisan Nixon should return to man the slot and kick-off returns.
IDP Targets for 2024
I like Kenny Clark as a DT2 in DT-required/true position league formats. Lukas Van Ness has upside heading into year two; however, I’d still target him as my 4th edge rusher. The off-ball LBs have some questions. After reading Hafley’s thoughts on Walker, I might be tempering expectations. Maybe an LB3. I like Keisan Nixon in CB-required leagues, and Xavier McKinney is a top-10 DB.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams promoted Chris Shula to defensive coordinator after former DC Raheem Morris accepted the Atlanta Falcons’ head coaching position.
Defensive Philosophy
As of now, Shula doesn’t have a base scheme, but there won’t be much difference between what you saw last season and this season. Shula has coached the inside and outside linebackers, and defensive backs. The core structure and principles will remain intact. He expects his players to play fast and fit the players to the scheme.
The Rams’ most deployed lineup was a 3-3-5, but they deployed one off-ball LB over 45% of the time.
Defensive Line Unit
The defensive line room is going to look completely different after the retirement of Aaron Donald. Kobie Turner is an upcoming interior defender. He’ll have a lot to build on after a nine-sack rookie year. Edge defender, Byron Young, is entering his second year, as well, and coming off an eight-sack campaign of his own. Shula is going to love unleashing these guys weekly.
Linebacker Unit
I’m expecting the Rams to deploy a similar look, using single-LB packages. Ernest Jones should remain the lone three-down LB. Shula confirmed he’ll continue to wear the dot.
Defensive Back Unit
The Rams lost some key pieces in Jordan Fuller and John Johnson III. They did add former Washington safety Kamren Curl in free agency, who should bolster the back end and provide support up front.
IDP Targets for 2024
Kobie Turner is looking like a DL3/DT2 depending on your league format and positional requirements. I don’t see any reason why Turner can’t match last season’s numbers; however, we’ll see if he’s the benefactor of the Aaron Donald effect. Byron Young will be an edge target in big play formats. Ernest Jones is the only LB I’m targeting and should be a top-10 LB. Kamren Curl should be considered a top-10 DB, as I see him being utilized similarly to his usage in Washington.
New York Giants
Don “Wink” Martindale’s tenure lasted just two seasons after he butted heads with the rest of the Giants’ coaching staff. The Giants decided to go with Shane Bowen as their DC.
Defensive Philosophy
Bowen typically runs a zone-heavy 34 scheme. He wants his players fast and to run downhill. In a pass-heavy NFL, Bowen still emphasizes stopping the run. He doesn’t rely on the blitz, but on four-man rushes to get pressure up front. As Titans’ DC, Bowen blitzed just 19% of the time and zone coverage 63% of the time. He also deployed 3 man fronts 10% of the time. Bowen utilized 4-2-5 packages 46% of the snaps and went dime/single-LB 18% of the snaps.
Keep in mind, Bowen’s single-LB usage was well above league average.
I think this is what you can expect Bowen’s defense to look like:
This is what his single-LB package could look like:
Defensive Line Unit
Bowen is going to love unleashing Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns. Lawrence is one of the best interior defenders at getting pressure. The Giants traded for Burns to bolster their pass rush alongside Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Linebacker Unit
Bobby Okereke appeared in over 1,110 snaps and recorded his second-straight season of 145+ tackles. He should be the primary off-ball LB in Bowen’s defense and call the plays. Since Bowen will go dime, the LB2 in this defense might only see 70%-75% of the snaps. That could be a damper on Micah McFadden’s IDP value.
Defensive Back Unit
The secondary is going to look different without Xavier McKinney in the backfield. No one stands out to me.
IDP Targets in 2024
Bobby Okereke is a top-5 LB. Brian Burns is a top-5 DL/edge rusher. You can target Dexter Lawrence as a top-20 DL/DT1 in DT-required leagues. I’m staying away from Thibodeaux.
Philadelphia Eagles
Much to most of the NFL’s surprise (and the Eagles’ delight), Vic Fangio was let go by the Dolphins and landed with Philadelphia.
Defensive Philosophy
Fangio uses a lot of zone and cover-4. The players in the secondary need to be athletic and need to have discipline in their coverage assignments. They also need to be aware of what’s around them so that no player is free in the zone.
Fangio runs a base 34 and rarely blitzes, opting to generate pressure up front. He has the linebackers tight on the LOS. However, he uses multiple fronts pre-snap to disguise his look. He also likes the two-high safety deployment.
I think this is what you can expect a Fangio defense to look like:
Defensive Line Unit
Last season, the Fangio deployed 4-down linemen just under the league average. The Eagles added Bryce Huff, and as of this writing, Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick are still on the roster. Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are going to be relied on to bolster the interior with the retirement of Fletcher Cox. Fangio is going to enjoy deploying Sweat, Reddick, and Huff, who combined for 201 QB pressures. Nolan Smith is the wild card of the defense. He played some off-ball LB but saw 92% of his snaps on the edge.
Linebacker Unit
Fangio is going to deploy nickel/2-LB packages consistently and keep them near the LOS. Fangio also used dime/single-LB well above the league average, so the LB2 might see around 75%-80% of the snaps. Devin White could be the three-down LB with the dot with Nakobe Dean as the LB2.
Defensive Back Unit
Fangio uses two-high safeties. Philadelphia lost Kevin Byard to the Bears but added C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Reed Blankenship can play deep and up in the box and Sydney Brown has big play potential. I can see Blankenship and Brown both playing deep with CJG playing the box/slot role.
IDP Targets for 2024
As of now, all three edge rushers are solid targets. Huff has DL1/2 upside this year if he earns a larger snap share. Reddick is a consistent DL1 and Sweat is a DL2 target. I think I’m fading Devin White and Nakobe Dean, and letting others draft them this year. CJG was limited to just three games, but he produced a 9.1% tackle rate and looked solid through the first two games of the season.
San Francisco 49ers
For some reason, the 49ers used Steve Wilks as the fall guy and let him go after the Super Bowl. They decided to go with Nick Sorensen, who has served as the defensive pass game specialist.
Defensive Philosophy
I don’t expect too much change from the defensive side schematically. I expect them to remain physical and disciplined.
The 49ers were pretty simple. They deployed four up front and forced you to stop them. They were primarily a 2-LB defense, so I’m expecting that to continue into 2024.
Defensive Line Unit
Javon Hargrave was the big free agent addition in 2023 and was stout, mainly lining up in the B-gap. The 49ers added free agent Leonard Floyd to provide Nick Bosa with some help, and also added interior defender Maliek Collins. Bosa will continue his dominance on the edge.
Linebacker Unit
Fred Warner is the constant here. Unfortunately, they lost Dre Greenlaw to a torn Achilles in the Super Bowl, so his availability for the beginning of the season is in question. To fill the gap, they added De’Vondre Campbell after Eric Kendricks decided to go to Dallas. The LB2 in the defense will have IDP value.
Defensive Back Unit
The 49ers unit is a solid group. Talanoa Hufanga missed six games due to injury but should be ready for training camp. The corners are led by Charvarius Ward.
IDP Targets for 2024
Nick Bosa is a weekly DL1 and Leonard Floyd should be a solid DL3. Fred Warner is a top LB and De’Vondre Campbell, who’s getting up in age, still should provide LB3 value with his projected usage as the LB2 opposite Warner. I like Hufanga as a DB2, as he played 40% of his snaps up on the line of scrimmage.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks moved on from Clint Hurtt and go with first-time defensive coordinator, Aden Durde.
Defensive Philosophy
Durde is going to preach fundamentals in all three areas. He joins the Seahawks after serving as the Cowboys’ defensive line coach and will look to bring the same attack-minded unit to Emerald City. He spent six seasons as an LB in NFL Europe, so he brings a bit of credibility to the LB room.
I would expect the Seahawks defense to look similar to Baltimore’s, where Mike Macdonald came from. Aggressive up front with multiple fronts.
Defensive Line Unit
The unit is stout up front with Dre’Mont Jones, Leonard Williams, and Jonathan Hankins. Seattle lost edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu to a torn pectoral but the team is confident he’ll be ready for Week 1. The pass rush missed his presence, but Boye Mafe picked up the slack. Durde should enjoy deploying these guys and generating pressure.
Linebacker Unit
The linebacker room will look different without Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks. Seattle brought in Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker in free agency, and those are the guys who should see the majority of the snaps in Durde’s defense. Seattle spent 13% of their snaps in 1-LB, however, the LB2 should see over 85% of the snaps.
Defensive Back Unit
We’ll have to see how the line of scrimmage snaps are split between Julian Love and Rayshawn Jenkins. Love played 480 snaps in the box/slot while Jenkins played 678 snaps in the box/slot. GM John Schneider mentioned two-high safety looks with Jenkins and Love.
IDP Targets for 2024
Boye Mafe carries double-digit sack upside heading into his third year. Mafe generated a 13.1% pressure rate and a 20% win rate. I do like Leonard Williams returning and Dre’Mont Jones provides tackle numbers and is good for 5-6 sacks. I prefer Tyrel Dodson over Jerome Baker at the LB position.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders were able to sway Dan Quinn to join the Commanders as head coach and he brought over Joe Whitt as his defensive coordinator.
Defensive Philosophy
I think Whitt will bring a very physical and violent mentality to the defense. I really like what he could have in store for Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. Whitt wants his defensive unit to wake up and choose violence with an emphasis on generating turnovers. See ball. Get ball.
I don’t think the Commanders will be a strict 43/34, but will utilize Dan Quinn’s concepts from the Cowboys.
Defensive Line Unit
Quinn used a combination of four-man/three-man fronts with Dallas with a sprinkle of 43 under/over. I could see him and Whitt using similar deployments with Washington. I’m not enamored with the edge rushers, but Payne and Allen could thrive in this defense. Four DEs are entering their second year, so it’s a young group. Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler reunite with Quinn in Washington.
Linebacker Unit
Frankie Luvu could be Whitt’s watered-down version of Micah Parsons. Luvu has 43 QB pressures as an off-ball LB. Bobby Wagner brings a veteran presence to the entire defense. Wagner and Luvu should be full-time LBs in Whitt’s defense.
Defensive Back Unit
Darrick Forrest and Quan Martin could be beneficiaries in Whitt’s defense. Whitt could help the corners generate more turnovers.
IDP Targets for 2024
From the defensive line, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne should be targeted in DT-required leagues. I think Allen will have value in DL-general leagues. Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner will be top LB options. As of now, I consider the DBs just to be weekly streamers.
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Hey Mike, what has you fading Thibodeaux this year, snap count concerns?