AFC Coaching Changes: How the 7 New Defensive Coordinators Will Impact IDP
Mike Woellert looks at the new DCs, their philosophies, and who to target in IDP drafts.
The NFL doesn’t stay out of the minds of fans for very long. There’s about a month of dead noise after the Super Bowl, then the Combine and free agency. The next thing you know, the draft is here and we’re on the way to OTAs.
Now that free agency is settled, we can examine how the coaching changes, especially the defensive coordinator, will impact IDP leagues as we head into the 2024 season.
We’ll look at the new DCs, their philosophies, and who to target in IDP drafts.
Baltimore Ravens
I don’t anticipate too many changes with the overall philosophy and principles the Ravens plan to deploy in 2024. Don “Wink” Martindale left in 2023 and the team didn’t miss a beat with Mike Macdonald. As a unit, the Ravens were the top-scoring defense in 2024, allowing just 16.5 points per game.
Defensive Philosophy
From a schematic standpoint, I would expect Zach Orr to tinker, but not overhaul the system. Hell, they allowed the fewest points while forcing the most turnovers and led the league in sacks. The defense will still be aggressive and Orr will continue to stress chaos and not give away answers to the test pre-snap.
This was Baltimore’s most deployed lineup and they used 2-LB packages on nearly every snap last season, which was a departure from season’s past.
Defensive Line Unit
Michael Pierce was a beast up the middle. Pierce was a top-10 IDL in total run stops according to PFF (26), where a “stop” is a failure for the offense. Of his total tackles, 36 resulted in the ball carrier being short of the first down. So, if you needed that first, it was advantageous to try and run away.
Orr should be happy that Justin Madubuike returned, as he will be a focal point at the front line. He set a career-high in sacks (13) and QB pressures (77).
The Ravens lost Tyus Bowser and Kyle Van Noy on the edge, so they’ll rely on David Ojabo and Odafe Oweh. Oweh and Ojabo combined for 53 QB pressures with Oweh accounting for 51 of them.
Linebacker Unit
The linebacker unit will look a bit different with Patrick Queen off to Pittsburgh. Roquan Smith will still man the middle, but it’s unclear who’ll be his running mate. As of now, the only other off-ball LBs are Trenton Simpson and Malik Harrison. Simpson enters his second year having played very well in Week 18, when he saw 42% of the snaps. He’d finish with seven tackles, two TFLs, and a sack. He looks to be the favorite to take Patrick Queen’s vacated snaps.
Orr could go more dime/single-LB if he feels the LB group is the weakness of the team.
Defensive Back Unit
Kyle Hamilton was deployed like their overhang DB, where he played 701 combined snaps in the box and slot. He has looked every bit the safety that he showed on tape at Notre Dame. I don’t see his role in the defense changing.
IDP Targets for 2024
Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, and Justin Madubuike are your clear targets. The key position battle will be the LB2 role opposite Smith. Trenton Simpson is a potential second-year breakout. Malik Harrison is entering his fifth year but hasn’t appeared in more than 25% of the defensive snaps. Odafe Oweh is an intriguing big-play target who generated a 16.1% pressure rate and 24.8% win rate but managed just five sacks.
Buffalo Bills
I don’t expect too much to change for Buffalo’s defense this season. Bobby Babich was promoted from linebacker coach to defensive coordinator. I figure he’ll still be Sean McDermott’s puppet; however, it’s up to McDermott. He could hand over the playcalling duties.
Defensive Philosophy
Babich has been with the Bills under McDermott since 2017. He started as the DB coach and then moved up to safeties coach in 2018. He served that role until 2022 when he was promoted to LB coach. Linebackers and safeties have prospered under Babich, most notably Terrel Bernard last season.
I expect Babich to carry over the same principles and concepts that Buffalo has deployed over the last several seasons: a heavy defensive line rotation and a nickel defense with two off-ball LBs on the field.
This will probably be a common look for their defense:
Defensive Line Unit
One of the key losses to this unit is going to be Leonard Floyd. Von Miller is entering his age 35 season and appeared in 12 games coming off an Achilles injury in 2022. It was the first time in his career that he failed to record a sack. The Bills brought back A.J. Epenesa and he was heavily involved in the rotation, seeing 41% of the snaps. Gregory Rousseau led the rotation and was in on 60% of the snaps. The EDGE unit is a young group, as Casey Toohill is the oldest at 27.
On the interior, Ed Oliver led the way. Oliver set a career-high in sacks (9.5) and tackles (51). Oliver saw 68% of the snaps, while there was a rotation alongside Oliver with Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips.
Linebacker Unit
With Tremaine Edmunds off to Chicago, there was a positional battle for the MIKE. Bernard ended up with the role and saw a three-down role opposite Matt Milano, who suffered a fractured leg/torn ACL in Week 5. His health will be in question all offseason. Worse yet, Buffalo lost Tyrel Dodson to the Seahawks in free agency. The Bills have been a 2-LB defense, so we’ll have some news to monitor. Dorian Williams is entering his second year and could see snaps if Milano starts the year on PUP.
Defensive Back Unit
This will be a retooled unit. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are gone. Taylor Rapp signed an extension, so he’ll man the back end of the secondary and play up on the line of scrimmage. Mike Edwards joins from Kansas City. Taron Johnson signed a three-year deal and became the NFL’s highest-paid nickel corner.
IDP Targets for 2024
I’ll have Terrel Bernard as a top-5 LB and Ed Oliver is looking like a DT2 in DT-required leagues. I’m not counting on a repeat of his sack numbers, but is a solid tackler. Taylor Rapp and Taron Johnson are my DB targets. Rapp is a versatile safety who can play all over the LOS. Johnson has a 9.8% tackle rate over the last two seasons.
If Milano misses time at the beginning of the season, Dorian Williams will be a late-round flyer.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars added former Saints/Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen after parting ways with Mike Caldwell. I like Nielsen’s aggressive approach and will bring some physicality to the team.
Defensive Philosophy
Nielsen runs a 43 base but deploys a seek-and-destroy mentality and depends on his corners to cover man-to-man. They deployed man coverage just over 40% of the time and relied on a four-man rush to get pressure. Nielsen blitzed just 22% of the time. The Falcons doubled their sack total from 2022 under Nielsen. The Falcons deployed 2-LB packages the majority of the time, but their most deployed look was a 3-3-5 with Bud Dupree on the edge.
Defensive Line Unit
Travon Walker had the quietest 10-sack campaign I can remember. After recording just 3.5 sacks as a rookie, he nearly tripled his sack output (10) and improved his pressure rate from 8.9% to 12.2%. Nielsen is going to have some fun with Walker. We know what Josh Allen is capable of. He finished with a career-high 17.5 sacks and a 17.5% pressure rate. The Jags added Arik Armstead in free agency, so he’ll help bolster the interior.
Linebacker Unit
Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd led the LB group in 2023 and saw the majority of the snaps. Lloyd battled through injuries but missed just two games and appeared in 87% of the snaps. Oluokun saw over 1,100 snaps and produced his third-straight season of 170+ plus tackles. Barring injuries, I don’t foresee Chad Muma seeing any significant snaps.
Defensive Back Unit
The DB unit lost Rayshawn Jenkins to the Seahawks. Who’ll step into his role? The Jags brought in missed tackle machine Darnell Savage. Andre Cisco has been decent but has played the deep safety role. He’s produced seven INTs and 17 defended passes in his career. Tyson Campbell has been their best corner but he missed 6 games last season. I’m still not sure if they have the personnel to deploy man coverage consistently. Ronald Darby was a good veteran addition.
IDP Targets for 2024
Foyesade Oluokun will once again be one of the top LBs in IDP. Devin Lloyd is looking like a solid LB2. Josh Allen is their top edge rusher and will be one of the top DL/EDGEs off the board. Travon Walker is looking like a DL2 in big-play formats. None of the DBs interest me.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers overhauled their coaching staff and made a splash with the hire of Jim Harbaugh as head coach. Harbaugh brings in a friend from the Michigan stuff, Jesse Minter, to be his defensive coordinator.
Defensive Philosophy
Minter spearheaded the top-ranked defense in the nation in 2023. His previous NFL coaching experience was with the Ravens between the 2017-2020 season, where he finished as a DB coach.
I believe he’ll use multiple fronts and rotations, as well as disguised looks. So what his defense looks like pre-snap, might look different at the snap. The Chargers could look like the Wolverines with a 34 base but primarily run nickel packages.
Defensive Line Unit
The Chargers could look like Michigan. If your fantasy platform doesn’t use true position, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Tuli Tuipulotu could switch to an LB designation. I do love Tuipulotu’s upside this season. He finished with an 11.5% pressure rate. Khalil Mack produced his highest total pressures (88) since the 2019 season; resulting in a 16.5% pressure rate.
Linebacker Unit
The Chargers will probably be in nickel primarily, so two off-ball LBs will be the norm. As of this writing, they have just three off-ball LBs on the roster: Nick Niemann, Daiyan Henley, and Troy Dye. I love Henley entering his second year. The Chargers could look to add an LB in the draft.
Defensive Back Unit
It was criminal the way Brandon Staley used Derwin James last year. Minter plans to unleash James this season and will adapt his defense to him. He’s going to allow him to play on instinct and let him roam free. So, he’s going to have tackle and big play upside this season.
IDP Targets for 2024
I’m targeting Daiyan Henley, Derwin James, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Khalil Mack this season. Joey Bosa is too injury-prone, so I’m fading.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins parted with Vic Fangio after one season and added Anthony Weaver as their new defensive coordinator.
Defensive Philosophy
Weaver had been with the Baltimore Ravens since 2021, serving as assistant head coach and defensive line coach. He deploys an aggressive style if you look at his stint as DC with the Houston Texans. With the Texans, they blitzed 32% of the time. In Baltimore, he used two high safeties and multiple fronts.
Weaver is going to be flexible and fit scheme to his players.
Defensive Line Unit
The Dolphins lost a big piece up front in Christian Wilkins. Zach Seiler and Neville Gallimore will have some big shoes to fill. Da’Shawn Hand enters his second season in Miami and they added Jonathan Harris in free agency. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are trying to come back from severe injuries, so they’ll look to Shaq Barrett to fill the pass rush void.
Linebacker Unit
The Dolphins lost Jerome Baker to free agency but added a veteran presence in Anthony Walker and former Seattle LB, Jordyn Brooks. David Long enters his second season with the Dolphins. I’m not quite sure what the future has in store for Channing Tindall.
Defensive Back Unit
I think one of the beneficiaries of Weaver’s coaching will be Jalen Ramsey. He might be allowed to shadow more and he’ll also be able to move around, as opposed to staying stationary on one side. Miami lost Brandon Jones and DeShon Elliott but added an AFC East rival, Jordan Poyer. Jevon Holland was one of the top-graded safeties according to PFF. Injuries limited Holland to 12 games, however, he did play nearly 47% of his snaps near the LOS, which was up from his 24% usage rate in 2022.
IDP Targets in 2024
I think Jordyn Brooks sees a full-time role with Miami, so he might be the lone LB target. I could see David Long and Anthony Walker in rotation as the playcaller. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips can probably be had on the cheap, as their health is in question, but still worthy of late-round fliers in leagues with deep benches. Jevon Holland looks to be a solid DB2 and Poyer is a late-round flier if he plays near the LOS.
New England Patriots
For the first time in nearly two decades, Bill Belichick will not be on the New England sideline. Jerod Mayo takes over as the head coach and he’s tabbed DeMarcus Covington as his defensive coordinator.
Defensive Philosophy
I don’t expect much to change under Mayo and Convington. Physicality, discipline, and fundamentals are always a staple of a New England defense. Covington has been the DL coach since 2020, and plans on calling the plays as DC. The Pats’ defense ranked 7th and their run defense ranked 4th.
It will still be an attacking defense with multiple fronts. Their most used personnel was a 3-3-5 and also used a 2-3-6 and 2-4-5. They used four up front to get pressure.
They used Ju’Whaun Bentley as an off-ball LB but also used Jahlani Tavai in the slot and on the edge, as well.
Defensive Line Unit
The Patriots brought back edge rusher, Josh Uche. Keion White is entering his second year and he’ll have a lot to prove. Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux are stout up front. Matthew Judon is coming off a torn bicep as enters his contract year. Judon was on his way to a monster year, as he produced a 17% pressure rate and four sacks in just four games.
Linebacker Unit
The LB unit always seems to be a “no name” unit, but somehow manages to be a top defense. For IDP purposes, Ju’Whaun Bentley is the only off-ball that produces. Bentley was the play caller of the defense and I foresee that carrying over to the 2024 season. Marte Mapu is going to be an intriguing name this season. I might take a chance on his upside over the Pats LBs.
Defensive Back Unit
New England brought back Kyle Dugger on the transition tag. Jabril Peppers enjoyed one of his best seasons as a pro, earning his best PFF grade in his career (87.3). Christian Gonzalez got off to a solid start through three games before a torn labrum ended his season.
New England was split between a one-high and two-high look. A typical one-high is one deep safety and the other DBs playing man. A two-high is to prevent deep, big plays. The safeties are playing deeper, covering their half of the field.
IDP Targets for 2024
New England players (both offense and defense) have been tough to nail down for fantasy. I feel confident in Ju’Whaun Bentley as the wearer of the green dot and seeing an every-down role. As long as New England gets Kyle Dugger’s contract worked through, I’m targeting him as a DB2. Matt Judon is a DL/EDGE2.
Tennessee Titans
Dennard Wilson was named Tennessee’s defensive coordinator after serving as DB coach for the Baltimore Ravens in 2023.
Defensive Philosophy
Wilson is going to deploy an aggressive defense that attacks at all points. The Titans lost some key defenders to free agency, but there are some guys who’ll fit nicely. Wilson is going to blitz more often, as the Titans blitzed on just 19% of their snaps. There will also be more of a split between zone and man coverage.
Wilson’s DBs are usually near the ball and make plays.
Defensive Line Unit
One of the key losses from the DL unit was Denico Autry as he heads to division rival Houston. Harold Landry, Arden Key, and Jeffrey Simmons will be the anchors of the line. Sebastian Joseph-Day could be an underrated addition to bolster the interior.
Linebacker Unit
Azeez Al-Shaair is another key loss, as he joins Autry in Houston. Tennessee added Kenneth Murray to replace Al-Shaair and Jack Gibbens could see a full-time role opposite Murray as the LB2. There’s not much else to get excited about with this unit.
Defensive Back Unit
Not nearly as talented, but Amani Hooker could be the Kyle Hamilton of the secondary. Hooker had a 32% box rate and was deployed along the LOS on nearly 67% of his snaps. Hooker missed four games and could have reached the 100-tackle mark. He’ll probably maintain his role under Wilson.
Wilson is working with a less-than-stellar CB room. Roger McCreary has just two career INTs, so maybe Wilson can help develop and coach him up. Tennessee added Chidobe Awuzie in free agency, so that’s a slight upgrade.
IDP Targets for 2024
Kenneth Murray has the opportunity to be a top LB in IDP thanks to his potential snap volume. I’m probably targeting Jack Gibbens as an LB4/5 in deeper leagues if Wilson deploys more nickel/2-LB packages. Amani Hooker is a solid zero-DB target. Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry will be big play targets. Landry has 22.5 sacks over the last two seasons.
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