May 2025 ADP Update: 5 Overvalued & 5 Undervalued IDPs
Mike looks at the D-UP contest's ADP to see who's being over (and under) drafted.
Draft season is heating up, and if you’re like me, you’ve been grinding through drafts and watching ADPs shift daily, trying to identify where the market is getting it wrong. Taking a look at the ADP for FastDraft’s D-UP contest, some guys are still flying under the radar despite monster production, while others are getting drafted way too high based on name recognition or draft capital alone.
That’s exactly what we’re diving into today: five players being overvalued, and five who are undervalued. The beauty of IDP is that production often trumps pedigree, but drafters don’t always see it that way. That’s where we can find an edge.
Undervalued IDPs
1. Nik Bonitto, EDGE, Denver Broncos (DL18, 33.66)
Even though his ADP has climbed a few spots, there’s still a bit of a discount on Nik Bonitto, who is being drafted at the start of the 4th round behind rookie Abdul Carter and before a run of defensive tackles. I even got him in the 5th last week.
Bonitto is coming off a career year where he generated a 14.2% pressure rate, an 18.3% win rate, and 13.5 sacks. He also added 11 QB hits. Normally, stats and metrics like that would catapult you to the top 5 (or at least the top 10) at your position.
Drafters might not be buying into the third-year breakout, but it’s not like Bonitto was a part-timer. He was on the field for 761 snaps. I think drafters will come around and his ADP will continue to rise, so strike while the iron is hot.
By the end of June, Bonitto could be a 2nd round pick.
Keep in mind: he is entering the final year of his contract and there have been discussions on an extension. However, he’s seeking $20 million/year. I think a deal gets done and Bonitto locks down at a full-time role opposite Jonathon Cooper.
2. Chop Robinson, EDGE, Miami Dolphins (DL29, 59.46)
Chop is one of my favorite breakout candidates for the 2025 season. I’ll gladly scoop him up higher than his ADP, as I’ve been snagging him in the 40s. If you see ADP rise in the coming weeks, you can assume that was me, as he’s right on the borderline of being drafted and has a low ownership percentage of just 18.9% so far.
Robinson had an impressive rookie year despite the production concerns coming out of Penn State: 11.5 sacks over three seasons. However, he recorded more sacks as a rookie (6) than in any season in college. Combined with elite metrics, including a 24.9% pressure rate and 23.8% win rate, there’s a lot to like heading into 2025.
One of the concerns that could suppress his ADP is his usage with the return of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. I’m betting on the talent here.
3. Jack Campbell, LB, Detroit Lions (LB23, 48.08)
If you’re like me and think Jack Campbell is in for a big third year, he’s a steal in these drafts as the 48th defender off the board. He’s a frequent 5th-round target for me.
Campbell saw 974 snaps in 2024 and produced a 13.4% tackle rate. I could see the solo-to-assist ratio and lack of big plays giving drafters pause. Campbell produced a 1.6% big-play rate in 2024, but I think a correction is coming in that department. I also see Campbell leading the Lions in solo tackles, even ahead of Alex Anzalone.
In my latest run of projections, I’ve got Campbell as the 17th highest scoring IDP by D-UP scoring. My average ADP for him has been 43, which I’m more than okay with, as he should outperform his draft position in 2025.
4. Bobby Wagner, LB, Washington Commanders (LB29, 57.53)
I have no evidence that Bobby Wagner’s play is in decline, so until he retires, I’m going to keep drafting him. I can’t believe he’s the 59th IDP off the board, essentially making him the last pick in most drafts. He’s being drafted behind Nakobe Dean!
Wagner had another season of 130+ tackles, though his solos fell below 80. In my projections, I’ve got Wagner back in the 80s for his solo tackles. Wagner is still a good bet for double-digit TFLs, sacks, and a few forced fumbles and recoveries. Last season, he produced a 2.3% big play rate, right on track with his career 2.4% rate.
I’ve got Wagner as the 28th highest projected IDP by D-UP scoring. If you’re looking in the 5th/6th for an LB, here’s a snapshot of our IDP Draft Assistant:
5. Antoine Winfield, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DB4, 55.23)
Drafters might be wary of Antoine Winfield’s injury history, as he’s played two full seasons in his career. Winfield played just 9 games in 2024 and still averaged nearly 13 points per game (12.7) by Big 3 Scoring, which was tied with Julian Love, Jessie Bates, and Xavier McKinney. In 2022, he averaged 13.2 PPG, and in 2021, it was 14.1.
Winfield is two seasons removed from his monster 2023 season, when he averaged 17.8 PPG. He’s a reliable producer, as he’s recorded a 10.3% tackle rate over his career and a 2.4% big play rate. It’s tough to project injuries, but with Winfield, I think you can take his upside. He’s productive no matter where he lines up on the field.
He played the majority of his snaps deep in 2024, but had a 39.7% line-of-scrimmage (LOS) rate, slightly lower than his 2023 season (42.8%). His ADP is 55, and I think you can do a lot worse for your 6th IDP based on Winfield’s historical production.
Overvalued IDPs
1. Abdul Carter, EDGE, New York Giants (DL15, 29.44)
I don’t like relying on a rookie to be one of my top producers, no matter the draft capital. Abdul Carter was the 2nd defender selected (if you count Travis Hunter) in the NFL Draft, but I’m not assuming an 80% snap rate as a rookie. I still think the Giants want to see what they have in Kayvon Thibodeaux, so I see an almost equal rotation; however, I do see Carter leading that rotation by season’s end.
A 50% usage rate certainly lowers his floor and caps his ceiling. Carter’s ADP is on a slight rise, 3.5 spots higher over the last few weeks, and is right around 30.
I am happy to take Gregory Rousseau, Nik Bonitto (mentioned earlier), Jamien Sherwood, Josh Hines-Allen, or Alex Singleton, all of whom are being selected after Carter. You can see where I have the rookie projected in D-UP:
I like Carter’s upside, but I’m afraid of his inconsistencies in his rookie year.
2. Jalen Carter, IDL, Philadelphia Eagles (DL21, 41.18)
Jalen Carter has name value and is emerging as one of the better defensive players in the NFL. However, I don’t think Carter’s skill set translates to IDP numbers.
Last season, Carter finished as the DL34 and the 103rd overall in Big 3 Scoring with just three big spike weeks of 20+ fantasy points. He had 9 games of 3 tackles or fewer, and his sacks decreased from 2023 (6) to 2024 (4.5).
As of now, he’s still being drafted just outside the top 40, which is still way too rich for my blood, especially for a defender who finished outside the top 100.
I will gladly let someone draft Carter, and I’ll take any of the defenders being drafted after him, including Budda Baker, Jordyn Brooks, and Lavonte David.
3. Ivan Pace, LB, Minnesota Vikings (LB32, 59.91)
I don’t see Brian Flores going away from what works in his defensive scheme and philosophy. The Vikings were in their dime defense with one off-ball LB on nearly 30% of their snaps. Pace missed 6 games in 2024, but when looking at his gamelogs, he was the LB off the field in dime, and Blake Cashman was the green dot LB.
Pace had 8 games of fewer than 70% of the snaps. He is, however, a producer when he’s on the field. Last season, he averaged 13.3 PPG, but had 4 games of fewer than 10 fantasy points. At his ADP of 59.91, I get gambling on the upside, but there are IDPs capable of higher PPG going after him, including Devin Lloyd (11 picks later).
4. EJ Speed, LB, Houston Texans (LB34, 60)
Stop drafting EJ Speed. The former Colts linebacker tested the free agent waters and found the waves to be rather choppy, without a strong market for his services.
When looking at his PFF grades, it’s clear to see why. He was a solid run defender, but, as it turns out, there’s not much demand for an LB who struggled tackling (48.2) and in coverage (46.3). The Colts moved on and appear to be all in on a duo of Jaylon Carlies and Zaire Franklin, leaving Speed to sign with division rival, Houston.
However, he enters a relatively crowded LB room where he’s not guaranteed any significant snaps. As of now, he’s behind Henry To’oTo’o on the depth chart as the LB2 opposite Azeez Al-Shaair. Even in their base defense/3-LB packages, he’s behind Christian Harris. His floor is 0 if he doesn’t see consistent snaps, which is a luxury you can’t afford with just six roster spots. I’ll take my chances with Lloyd or even Carson Schwesinger, who I see having a clearer path to snaps in Cleveland.
5. Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles (LB25, 50.6)
There’s too much uncertainty surrounding Nakobe Dean for me to even think about drafting him in FastDraft, where there are just six roster spots, meaning fantasy points are at a premium. I’ve been autodrafted Dean on a few teams because I forgot to take him out of my ranking early on, and I feel like I just donated.
Best case scenario, Dean is on PUP and misses 4-6 games. That’s 4-6 weeks where one of your slots is accumulating 0 points. That means your 5 other defenders need to hit their ceiling every week to keep you afloat. That’s too risky.
Even at his ADP of 50, it’s still too high. He shouldn’t be drafted ahead of guys like Logan Wilson, Derwin James, Bobby Okereke, or, well, anybody.
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