July ADP Update: Keep/Trade/Cut
Let's look at the ADP to find similarly drafted defenders we can keep, trade, and cut.
It’s that time of year when we start making the hard decisions about which IDPs to ride with, which to flip for value, and which to cut loose entirely. This keep/trade/cut article is all about making those tough calls. We're looking at contract situations that could tank a player's value, role changes that might unlock hidden upside, and those underlying metrics that separate the real producers from the fantasy frauds.
This exercise is helpful whether you’re drafting a D-UP squad or preparing for your home league draft. Without further ado, let’s dive into the FastDraft ADP to find some debatable trios and ask ourselves the age-old question: Keep? Trade? Cut?
DL: Will Anderson, Trey Hendrickson, T.J. Watt
Keep: Will Anderson (8.4)
Trade: Trey Hendrickson (6.5)
Cut: T.J. Watt (2.9)
These edge rushers are all top 10 picks in D-UP, with Watt being taken 3rd overall.
I’m keeping Anderson, and I like his value toward the back of the 1st round. He’s coming off an 11-sack season, and I still don’t think he’s hit his ceiling. Anderson played 63% of the snaps and appeared in 14 games. He generated a 14.4% pressure rate, had 4 games of multiple sacks, and never went more than 2 games without.
I’m trading Hendrickson and selling high on his career year in 2024. Plus, the Bengals are playing hardball with him concerning a new contract, and Hendrickson is so entrenched that he might sit out training camp and games. This stalemate has been going on for the last few months with no communication between the two parties. Training camp is in a few weeks, so we’ll see if talks ramp up.
I’m cutting Watt. He’s in a similar situation as Hendrickson and is threatening a holdout. It seems that he wants to be the highest-paid non-QB. I’m not sure of the history with Steelers and contract squabbles, but I’m out on Watt of these three.
His metrics took a steep hit, generating just a 9.5% pressure rate. His pressures dropped 34% from 2023. He’s willing to play through injury, as he’s appeared in 34 games over the last two seasons, after appearing in just 10 games in 2022. Did that contribute to the production drop? He is entering his age-31 season.
LB: Roquan Smith, Fred Warner, Quincy Williams
Keep: Roquan Smith (12.1)
Trade: Fred Warner (13.4)
Cut: Quincy Williams (20.3)
Fred Warner and Roquan Smith are sandwiched right near each other, but I’ll take my chance and trade Warner and take advantage of the name. He might have the tackle share all to himself, as he gets used to playing alongside a new running mate, whether it’s Dee Winters or Nickolas Martin. Backend safety Talanoa Hufanga is in Denver, and San Francisco might be without the services of Malik Mustapha for some time. However, Warner has yet to have a season of over 140 tackles. His career high is 137, and he just seems stuck at the 130 mark. So, is his ceiling capped?
I’m riding with Smith until the wheels fall off. Sometimes, we tend to overthink things and want to recoup value on guys for potential. Well, Smith delivers elite production on a yearly basis. He has 4 straight seasons of 150+ tackles. He’s a constant, not only for the Ravens but in IDP, as well. He’s usually a good bet for 80+ solo tackles, and has the potential for 90+. Why trade for potential when you know what you have?
With the emergence of Jamien Sherwood, Quincy Williams’ tackle share could start to dwindle. After recording 139 tackles in 2022, he had just 116 stops and saw a precipitous drop in solos from 2023 (95) to 74 last season. He’ll get a few sacks here and there, and I will say, is a good source of TFLs, but you’re losing points with solo tackles and drop in totals. I am probably moving on from Williams in 2025.
LB: Edgerrin Cooper, Robert Spillane, Blake Cashman
Keep: Edgerrin Cooper (23.9)
Trade: Robert Spillane (26.2)
Cut: Blake Cashman (27)
I’m all in on Cooper this season. I’ve got him as the LB3 in projections, and he’ll be a tier 1 LB when I release my LB tiers later in the month. I’m betting on the potential here. He played just 491 snaps, but you saw his impact on the field. He produced a 17.7% tackle rate and recorded 13 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. He also added an INT and 4 defended passes. He produced 0.36 points per snap, and from Weeks 14-17, he was the LB9 in scoring. He’s on track for a full-time role in 2025. I’m here for all of it.
I am going to trade Spillane. He’s going to have a three-down role as the green dot in New England, and while I think he’s going to lead the team in tackles, there is a range of outcomes where he’s not as productive as he was with the Raiders. He’s replacing Ja’Whaun Bentley, who never recorded more than 125 tackles and two seasons of more assists than solos. He finished as the LB34 in 2023 and LB29 in 2022.
So, will he have the same tackle share he enjoyed while in Vegas? If you can get a solid return, I might let your league mate find out for himself.
I’m cutting Cashman, who’s been hovering around this ADP for a while. You can always count on Cashman missing a handful of games, as he’s missed at least 3 over the last two, and has 3 seasons of fewer than 10 games. When you’re in a shallow best ball like D-UP, that can be detrimental. For that reason, I’m out on Cashman.
DL: Gregory Rousseau, Dexter Lawrence, Travon Walker
Keep: Gregory Rousseau (31.4)
Trade: Dexter Lawrence (36.8)
Cut: Travon Walker (39.2)
I’m riding out Rousseau’s career, and am keeping him for 2025. He’s a solid source for tackles, with 40+ in three of the last four seasons. He generated a 13% pressure rate on his way to 8 sacks, and he added 17 QB hits, so he was a bit unlucky on his pressures. If he converts 2-3 of those hits, he hits the double-digit mark, which I think he hits in 2025. His win rate was on par with his 2023 season, beating his blockers to a 19.6% win rate. He should absorb some of Von Miller’s 207 pass-rush snaps in 2025.
It’s tough for interior defenders to repeat production from year to year. If there’s anyone who can do it, it’s probably “Sexy Dexy.” Dude was constantly double-teamed, and still produced a 19.3% win rate and 10.8% pressure rate. A dislocated elbow ended his phenomenal season, but he looks to be on track for the 2025 season. Lawrence has some help, but I’m selling high on Lawrence and getting what I can from him.
I am cutting Walker, and I know that’s tough considering he has consecutive seasons of 10+ sacks. I just think it’s smoke and mirrors. His ADP has been on the rise recently, but I am not going to trust anyone with a pressure rate less than 11% over the last two seasons, and he barely scraped the 10% mark last season. He’s winning just 14% of his reps, and I think he’s due for regression in 2025. I’m not liking his pass metrics, and I’ll reach on high upside guys like Laiatu Latu and Chop Robinson.
FLEX: Jordyn Brooks, Kyle Hamilton, Jalen Carter
Keep: Jordyn Brooks (39.96)
Trade: Kyle Hamilton (42.4)
Cut: Jalen Carter (41.99)
In the 40s, you’re seeing a mix of positions. In this area, I’m keeping Brooks, who upped the production during his first season in South Beach. He’s always been a solid tackling machine, recording 140+ tackles in three of the last four seasons. Now he’s added some big plays to the mix. He’s recorded 7.5 sacks over the last two seasons and 10 defended passes, while also being a threat around the LOS with 19 TFLs.
Hamilton produced his first 100+ tackle season in 2024, so it might be a good time to cash out. Production variance is common at DB. Malaki Starks has entered the fray, so will he eat into some of Hamilton’s production or line of scrimmage snaps? The INTs dropped as he played near the LOS, so that big play upside might be lowered, too.
Carter is a solid NFL player, but I don’t see him as a reliable source for fantasy points. He had a promising rookie year with 6 sacks, but the production dipped slightly in 2024 to 4.5, and in most scoring formats, he finished as the DL50 and the 214th overall scorer. I don’t think that’s worthy of being drafted among the top 45 IDPs.
S: Derwin James, Budda Baker, Antoine Winfield Jr.
Keep: Derwin James (51.9)
Trade: Budda Baker (54.7)
Cut: Antoine Winfield Jr. (54.8)
Here’s a tough choice, but I’m keeping James, who’s the most consistent DB producer since his rookie year. He’s averaged 111 tackles in seasons where he’s played 14 or more games and is a good bet for a handful of sacks and TFLs. He plays near the LOS and is always around the ball. He offers a safe floor with the upside to produce ceiling weeks in a best ball format. Last season, he had 5 games of 15+ fantasy points.
I’m selling high on Baker’s career year. His 164 tackles were his highest output since 2019, when he recorded 147. He’s now gone two straight seasons without an INT, and last season was his first with a sack since 2021. He’s an elite tackle producer, but I’m betting on the side of variance and trading Baker and betting against a repeat.
By process of elimination, I’m cutting Winfield Jr. He’s entering his 6th year, healthy, after an injury sidelined him after 9 games. He was on pace for his second-straight 100+ tackle campaign, but as it stands, he has just one such season. We’ll see if the LB2 cuts into Winfield’s tackle share in 2025. But, of this trio, Winfield is the cut.
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