July ADP Update: Biggest Risers and Fallers
Mike examines the IDPs rising and falling in July's drafts to identify the best values.
Training camp is in full swing, and the ADP movement is getting wild. Some guys are climbing fast on camp buzz while others are inexplicably falling despite nothing changing with their situation.
With the August draft season approaching, these shifts are creating real opportunities. Whether it's a linebacker suddenly getting first-team reps or an edge rusher dropping for no good reason, the market is still trying to figure out July’s new information.
In this article, I’ll look at the biggest shifts in ADP over the past six drafts that have been added to our ADP and tell you the risers worth buying into and the fallers you should be targeting on their way down.
Riser: Nate Landman, LB, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 182.1 (up 4.3 spots)
Now’s the time to jump on Nate Landman as a cheap three-down LB in the 14th round. Why? He’s potentially the green dot for the Rams, which means you’ll soon start to see his ADP rise. The dot doesn’t equal production, but it equals snap volume with a three-down role.
Landman is a solid run defender and tackler, as he reduced his miss rate from 14% in 2023 to 10% in 2024. Troy Reeder has been a liability in the middle over the last few seasons.
Landman was on the field for 88% of the snaps after missing 4 games early in the season and recorded a 13.6% tackle rate. However, the Falcons shifted their philosophy and used Landman primarily on early downs, and went with personnel that favored stronger coverage.
Landman is a productive LB, and if he maintains a three-down role, he could be one of the bigger draft values. He does carry a bit of risk if his role changes during the season, but he’s worth a sprinkle.
Faller: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 78 (down 21.3 spots)
Dallas Turner’s drop is one of the bigger drops at EDGE that I’ve seen over the last several weeks. I don’t think it will last.
Training camps have opened, and Turner has caught some buzz, as he’s starting to turn some heads. He’s glued himself to Jonathan Greenard, and the results are surfacing in practice. He’s showing off spin moves and his burst around the edge.
At this point, the buzz hasn’t caught up to the ADP. Oh, but it will. Now’s the time to buy the dip, as he’s going to be heavily involved in the rotation, and might even play some off-ball LB. I have a more detailed write-up on him here, but he’s looking down the barrel of an 8-sack season.
I don’t think his ADP should be dropping, so take advantage while you can. The Vikings defensive line has plenty of production to go around.
Riser: Christian Rozeboom, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 173.1 (up 24.9 spots)
Christian Rozeboom wasn’t getting drafted early, but that’s going to change. Josey Jewell was released due to health concerns (concussions) and it appears Rozeboom will be wearing the dot on defense in his absence.
Rozeboom is coming off a career-high in tackles (135) and saw 74% of the snaps for the Rams in 2024. I don’t suggest looking at his PFF grades—there’s not a lot of green or blue to be found, but there should be plenty of snaps.
Rozeboom will lead the defense and Trevin Wallace should be the LB2 alongside him, but Rozeboom seems to be one of those Alex Singleton types, where he’s always around the ball for the tackle
I’m not anticipating a 16% tackle rate, but if he has a three-down role and maintains roughly a 14% tackle rate, he’s a value pick. Like Nate Landman, there’s some risk if he ends up losing his role during the season.
Faller: Jordyn Brooks, LB, Miami Dolphins
ADP: 34.4 (down 3.7 spots)
There’s been a lot of volatility at the LB position, but Jordyn Brooks dropping is a bit of a surprise. The Miami Dolphins LB has been a consistent producer, and I’m not letting the fact that he’s not wearing the dot stop me from drafting him. He’s still a three-down LB and plays nearly 95% of the snaps (98% of the snaps in 2024).
Brooks has averaged 150 tackles over the last four seasons, and over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 3.5 sacks and 9.5 TFLs. By Big 3 Scoring, Brooks was the 17th overall scorer last season and averaged 14.4 PPG. After the bye week, Brooks had 6 games of 15+ fantasy points, and never recorded fewer than 10 points.
If you’re getting him as your LB3/4 in the late 30s/early 40s, thank your leaguemates.
Riser: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 91.5 (up 9.1 spots)
With news out of camp that Jihaad Campbell is healthy, his ADP should continue to climb. Not only is he healthy, but Campbell is already running with the first team at linebacker, which is good news for his IDP value. He can move all over the field, so I’m sure he’ll have opportunities to get to the QB, but if he’s starting at LB alongside Zack Baun, then most of his production should come from tackles.
Although he’s been in limited reps, Campbell is showing the athleticism that made him a first-round talent at Alabama. He’s learning both LB spots and is sticking around Baun and Nakobe Dean to learn the ins and outs of the defense. If he plays as well as his Alabama tape, he’s going to make life difficult for Dean when he returns.
Faller: Abdul Carter, EDGE, New York Giants
ADP: 47.2 (down 30.1 spots)
It’s “overreaction in shorts” season now that training camps have opened. We’re seeing the traits that made Abdul Carter shine at Penn State. Watching some of his training camp reps, I’d probably consider retirement if I had to block him all day.
And yet, his ADP has gone down over 30 spots over the last several weeks.
Carter is going before a few more established options like Alex Singleton, Bobby Wagner, Will McDonald, and Zach Allen. Playing alongside Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence, Cater is going to have an impact as a rookie. Will he perform like a top-50 defender? I’m not sure if I’m pulling the trigger there.
If you pass on Carter, you can grab Donovan Ezeiruaku (my #1 ranked rookie EDGE prospect) about 13 rounds later.
Riser: Chris Jones, IDL, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 54.1 (up 17.8 spots)
Is Chris Jones still an elite producer? His ADP has seen a boost over the last few weeks, but I’m not so sure it’s warranted. Jones has climbed into the top 60, but I’m not so sure he’s still a top IDP. Last season, by Big 3 Scoring, he finished as the DL64, averaging just 9 fantasy points/game, and finished 190th in overall scoring.
Yes, you’re getting some consistency, but his spike weeks were few and far between. He had just four games of double-digit fantasy points and six games of fewer than 5 fantasy points. Is that what you’re looking for from your IDL?
IDLs are already volatile week-to-week, and Jones is entering his age-31 season. He missed two games last year and has appeared in over 2,400 snaps over the last three seasons. I’m a bit skeptical of the ADP jump, especially with guys like Zach Allen, Chop Robinson, Jeffrey Simmons, and George Karlafits going after.
Faller: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Chicago Bears
ADP: 92.6 (down 20.5 spots)
I think we’ve seen Tremaine Edmunds’ ceiling, and it was his rookie year when he recorded 121 tackles and a 2:1 solo-to-assist ratio. He’s recorded a career 12.2% tackle rate since 2019, but just an 11.5% tackle rate since arriving in Chicago.
Those are barely LB3 numbers.
It’s not surprising his ADP has dropped over 20 spots over the last few weeks. Even as a green dot, he’s not super efficient. Tyrice Knight, Carson Schwesinger, and Tyrel Dodson are all being drafted around him. I’d rather have any one of those guys.
Riser: Dee Winters, LB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 218.7 (up 77.9 spots)
The 49ers drafted Nick Martin in the 3rd, and it might have signaled the end of Dee Winters, but in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.”
The 2nd-year LB saw more snaps as the 2024 season went on. From Weeks 1-9, Winters saw a 25% usage rate and never recorded more than 4 tackles. From Weeks 10-18, he averaged a 65% usage rate and had three games of 6+ tackles, ending up with an 11.1% tackle rate.
Winters is starting to establish himself as the frontrunner for the LB2 spot opposite Fred Warner, and it might be tough to keep him off the field. He’s showing off sideline-to-sideline range and Warner is noticing his growth.
He’s still free in drafts, and if he does win the spot, you could get a solid LB3 in the tail-end of drafts before the ADP starts to rise.
Faller: Cooper DeJean, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 124 (down 19.8 spots)
The DB position is always an interesting one. Cooper DeJean brings some upside, as he could be moving around and playing multiple roles near the LOS.
Last season, DeJean was Philly’s primary nickel as he saw 773 snaps in the slot and just 8 snaps outside. He’d finished with an 8.1% tackle rate, but he didn’t see a full-time role until Week 5, and he didn’t play in Week 18.
So far in camp, DeJean is getting some safety work, especially with Andrew Mukuba nursing an injury.
Is he going to be a better real football player than an IDP asset? I think that’s the question IDP managers are trying to answer. In Big 3 scoring, he averaged 7.7 points, however, he had 3 games of fewer than 0 pts (including a negative). But when you look at his stretch after becoming a full-time player, he had 9 games of 10+ fantasy points.
I think I’m willing to take a chance on DeJean’s fantasy production in 2025.
Riser: Jaylon Carlies, LB, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 128.2 (up 88.9 spots)
I think the IDP world has finally caught up to Jaylon Carlies. He’s had a nearly 90-spot climb over the last few weeks. I wrote him up as a breakout candidate for Draft Kit subscribers, and the Colts probably feel the same way, as they didn’t address the LB position in the draft or free agency, and let EJ Speed walk in free agency.
In his rookie year, Carlies appeared in 10 games and 242 snaps, recording a 14.9% tackle rate. He’s in line for a full-time role opposite Zaire Franklin, so 900+ snaps is a clear possibility.
Plus, he has dual eligibility on Sleeper (and maybe some other platforms), which gives him a bit more value since he’ll be able to play at LB and DB. Drafters are taking advantage of that cheat code. I don’t have an issue targeting him as an LB2/3.
Faller: Azeez Al-Shaair, LB, Houston Texans
ADP: 45.5 (down 9 spots)
I’ve been “meh” on Azeez Al-Shaair in best ball this offseason, as he’s not someone I’ve actively targeted, but the 9-spot drop is interesting. Al-Shaair looks to be the three-down guy in Houston and should wear the dot. Snap volume shouldn’t be a concern. Is it his propensity for physicality that could lead to suspensions?
Al-Shaari dealt with injuries and missed three games due to a suspension for unnecessary roughness. Even missing six games, Al-Shaari recorded a 12.2% tackle rate, which puts him in LB3 territory.
Now that he’s dropping into the 40s, there are still a few LB targets I’d rather have in that 4th-5th round range, including Terrel Bernard, Lavonte David, and Jack Campbell (whose ADP is still criminally low at 51.6).
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