IDP Risers and Fallers: Preseason Edition
IDP Risers and Fallers: Preseason Edition
With the preseason behind us, which IDPs saw their stock rise and fall the most?
We have wrapped up the preseason and Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is in our view. Preseason Week 3 gives us a bit more information and insight that we can go on to prepare for the 2024 season. There are a few players whose stock has risen, and consequently, fallen due to their role and usage during preseason games.
We’ll look at how the preseason games and team dynamics impact their IDP value with the hope of finding that diamond in the rough and avoiding a potential landmine.
RISER: Dorian Williams, LB, Buffalo Bills
The injury to Matt Milano opened an opportunity for the LB2 spot opposite Terrel Bernard. Last season, the LB2 played just over 70% of the snaps. Is a rotation in the cards this season? Possibly, but it looks like Dorian Williams will have the first crack at the spot.
Traditionally, the LB2 in Buffalo has played a full-time role, so there is some value here with Williams. Williams received the “starter treatment” for the preseason Week 3 game and was held out, while Joe Andreessen and Edefuan Ulofoshio each played over 50 snaps (55 and 56, respectively) and Deion Jones saw 20.
Williams looks like the LB2, but comes with a bit of risk. However, he’s a mid-to-late round target who could return LB3 value, so the risk won’t cost you too much. I’d look to draft him as my LB4 in a deeper league.
FALLER: Jordan Battle, S, Cincinnati Bengals
Jordan Battle was in line for a bigger role in 2024. Dax Hill is being moved to the perimeter and Battle was projected to have a role near the line of scrimmage (LOS).
Things got foggy with the addition of Geno Stone, and then downright murky with Vonn Bell coming back into town. I didn’t think too much of Bell’s addition and thought he was added merely for depth and a veteran presence.
Battle produced an elite 13.5% tackle rate while adding an INT and 2 sacks. There was a lot to like about Battle’s prospects heading into the season.
Then the preseason hit. Battle wasn’t treated like a starter while Stone and Bell got the starter treatment and were held out of games. Battle didn’t see any snaps with the first team, so I don’t foresee him being IDP-relevant to start the season.
RISER: Jalen Pitre, S, Houston Texans
It looks like Jalen Pitre’s role is changing for the better and could put him in position to have a solid bounceback season. Desmond King was a cut casualty, so it looks like Pitre’s role as the box safety/slot corner appears real. Pitre has been deployed on the LOS for 19 snaps, including 10 slot snaps. He recorded a 21.7% tackle rate, which resulted in 5 tackles (4 solos) and a TFL.
Pitre played a similar role last season that he did in his rookie year, so the production drop was curious. The safeties dominated the tackle share in 2022. Last season, Blake Cashman and Christian Harris led the tackle share and Denzel Perryman was in the mix.
If Pitre is going to play a role where he’s involved near the LOS more often, that raises his IDP value and I currently project him for 107 tackles. I think he’s a solid DB2 and carries DB1 with a box/slot role.
FALLER: Junior Colson, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
I think we were too quick to anoint Colson as the next big thing because of his draft landing spot. Late training camp surgery (appendicitis) caused Colson to miss out on precious training camp reps, and he didn’t see any action until Week 3 of the preseason.
This allowed Denzel Perryman and Daiyan Henely to get reps as first-team off-ball LBs. Henley has been the LB2 opposite Perryman throughout camp and the preseason.
Colson made the most of his 21 snaps as PFF graded him with an 81.1 grade and was solid in coverage. Colson has an uphill battle to climb for snaps, so his IDP value is minimal as we head into Week 1. He’ll probably be a mid-to-late season waiver pickup, or a buy-low target if he can’t get on the field in the first few weeks.
RISER: Jordyn Brooks, LB, Miami Dolphins
Jordyn Brooks left the friendly confines of Seattle to head to South Beach and his IDP value is on the upswing after Week 3 of the preseason. David Long and Brooks were both on the field for 2-LB packages and that was the primary deployment for the Dolphins. It’s a good sign as we head into Week 1.
Brooks, even when on the field for 75% of the snaps, is an efficient tackler. Last season, he recorded a 13.8% tackle rate, which was down from 16.2% from his previous two seasons. A 13.8% tackle rate puts him in the LB2 range.
A full-time role puts him in the LB2 territory. Miami deploys a bit less zone, but a new DC could change that. I’m still on board with Brooks as my LB2.
FALLER: DaRon Bland, CB, Dallas Cowboys
DaRon Bland had an uphill battle to climb to replicate last season’s numbers, and after the big play specialist suffered a foot injury that will cost him significant time, it appears unlikely to happen. (Spoiler alert: It was never gonna happen.)
Bland suffered a stress fracture which is expected to keep him out for the next 6-8 weeks. We’re looking at 4 games, at least, and potentially up to 6 games.
RISER: Josey Jewell, LB, Carolina Panthers
Questions were abundant on Josey Jewell’s role after signing with Carolina.
Jewell has a relationship with defensive coordinator Ejero Evero, so that was a good sign for his role in the defense. Shaq Thompson is returning from an injury that caused him most of the 2023 season, and he was the incumbent signal-caller.
Jewell has been a productive tackler, but injuries have been his kryptonite. His role was solidified in Week 3 of the preseason, as he was the one wearing the dot. If we assume this remains, he’ll have a three-down role this season.
Jewell’s ADP should start creeping up, but he’s still a solid LB2 wearing the dot.
FALLER: Rams/Titans Linebackers
I’d be remiss if I didn’t touch on the Ernest Jones trade, but I’m not going to go too much into the trade fallout, as I’ve got you covered here:
Ernest Jones Trade Fallout and Green Dot Linebackers
Projected Green Dot and Full-Time Linebackers
RISER: Leonard Taylor III, EDGE, New York Jets
Leonard Taylor is coming off a huge preseason and the UDFA made the final 53-man roster. It was a bit of a surprise he went undrafted but he was a high-profile UDFA signing and was unstoppable during the preseason. Over 87 preseason snaps, PFF graded him with a 77.5 pass-rush grade. The other elements of his game need a bit of refining, but he’s a bull in a china shop and you just let him disrupt the offense.
As an interior defender, he generated a 14% pressure rate and a 28.6% win rate. Taylor finished with 2.5 sacks, 4 TFLs, and 4 QB hits. Taylor will be someone to keep an eye on this season.
FALLER: Frankie Luvu, LB, Washington Commanders
Frankie Luvu signed with the Commanders and Dan Quinn is envisioning him as his Micah Parsons in the defense.
He played half his snaps on the line in Week 1 of the preseason, even though it amounted to just 2 snaps. He saw more snaps at off-ball LB in Week 2. If Luvu plays more snaps on the edge, it could lessen his tackle efficiency, as he has fewer opportunities to make plays on the ball.
I’m targeting Luvu as an LB3 and will allow others to reach for him at his current ADP.
RISER: KJ Henry, EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals
The Commanders made the mistake of allowing KJ Henry to get away and the Bengals scooped him off waivers.
Henry played sparingly in his rookie season, appearing in 281 snaps. Nothing really stood out from that time, generating just a 6.5% pressure rate.
Henry was in line for more responsibilities and additional snaps on the defensive line. He showed promise during the preseason, as he saw 75 snaps and generated a 19.6% pressure rate and 29.4% win rate.
The Bengals landing spot is intriguing. Myles Murphy and Cam Sample both landed on IR and a path to snaps has opened during the regular season. He’ll be a name to keep an eye on this season with a potential for snaps.
FALLER: Nick Cross, S, Indianapolis Colts
Julian Blackmon and Nick Cross have been in a positional battle at safety, specifically for the LOS role. I’ve had Cross projected snaps closer to a part-time role. Cross and Blackmon rotated while each got some work to play near the line of scrimmage.
Cross ended up with just 29 snaps near the LOS and was deployed as a deep safety on nearly 60% of his preseason snaps.
Blackmon received the starter treatment throughout the preseason, as he saw just 25 total snaps. Blackmon played 64% of his snaps on the LOS.
Cross’ IDP value takes a hit with his deep role. There still could be a rotation, but Blackmon should be the Colts’ safety of choice. I’m staying away from Cross.
RISER: Derick Hall, EDGE, Seattle Seahawks
I was impressed with Derick Hall’s preseason and now his opportunity to contribute has opened up thanks to an injury. Uchenna Nwosu suffered a sprained MCL and is expected to miss anywhere between 2-6 weeks. Hall saw 308 snaps as a rookie and graded out with a 57.4 pass-rush. Nothing to write home about, especially with a pressure rate of less than 10%.
Once again, Hall stepped up during the preseason and is showing promise heading into the regular season. Hall generated a 23.6% pressure rate and a 31.6% win rate.
His IDP stock is on the rise, but just keep an eye on Trevis Gibpson. I do believe he was added more for depth.
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