DL Streaming 101: Week 7
Professor IDP looks at the best DE and DT streaming options in your IDP fantasy football leagues for Week 7.
Welcome to the Week 7 edition of DL Streaming 101! We are officially riding a hot streak despite byes and injuries with four straight weeks of picks averaging at least 10 fantasy points per game! Before looking ahead, let’s take a quick look back at some article alumni, last week’s picks, and season-long performance.
Before we get into last week’s picks and our season-long performance, I wanted to give a quick shout-out to some DL Streaming 101 alumni from earlier this year who finished in the top 24 within their position group this week: Alim McNeil (DT2), Vita Vea (DT8), Grady Jarrett (DT14), and Nik Bonitto (DE23). If these guys aren’t yet rostered in your leagues, you may want to consider making some speculative adds in deep leagues as they will likely appear in some future editions as well.
Week 6 saw the highest average among streaming recommendations at 13.36 points per game (using the NPLB scoring). Highlights from last week include A.J. Epenesa’s overall DE2 performance and DeMarcus Walker’s overall DT5 output. A 10-point outing is a floor that I strive for with streamers and this week 75% of calls hit this mark so two outliers did not drive the overall average. Arden Key, Maliek Collins, and T’Vondre Sweat all had disappointing fantasy showings. Still, each played at least 76% of snaps so I am not abandoning hope on them yet just like I won’t chase points for guys whose underlying metrics don’t suggest a repeat performance in the near future.
For the season, we are now over 10 points per game overall and within each of the three top tiers (we have not yet had to dip into Tier 4 - Educated Dart Throw territory just yet). It is getting more difficult to find available players in the Ideal tier so some of those metrics are lagging behind but this is likely due to small numbers since grades and snap shares for that group are aligned with expectations. Across all DL in Week 6, my model had a season-high .398 correlation with actual performance so there are no changes as we head into Week 7!
DL Available in 75% of IDP Leagues
Jarran Reed, DT, SEA (🎓🎓🎓)
Reed is at the cusp of being ineligible for this article in the future as a 1% change in rostership next week would make this his final appearance. Reed is 10th in overall PFF grade through six weeks and has excelled as a pass rusher with the seventh most pressures in the NFL among interior defensive linemen with 19 (but only two sacks). Two factors keep Reed just outside of the Ideal Tier. First, Seattle is expecting the return of talented rookie Byron Murphy in Week 7 and traded for veteran Roy Robertson-Harris this week. When Seattle has had a full complement of interior defenders, Reed has played 54-62% of snaps compared to the 69-82% range he has enjoyed when at least one teammate was out. Seattle also faces an Atlanta team that has been among the toughest in the league to opposing DT allowing only one 30+ point performance, one 20+ point performance, and five 10+ point performances this season (no Panther DT broke 10 points in Week 6).
Tuli Tuipolotu, DE, LAC (🎓🎓🎓)
An active Joey Bosa would drop Tuipolotu a tier as it would likely mean a 15-30% reduction in snaps. While suffering through a sophomore slump as a pass rusher (only seven pressures, zero sacks, and a pedestrian 57.3 PFF pass rush grade), Tuli’s underlying run defense grade of 72.6 is impressive. The Cardinals are a slight plus matchup for DE this season with four of six opponents scoring higher than average at the position this season and some big games to non-elite pass rushers along the way (32.4 to Dorance Armstrong in Week 4 and 22.2 to Leonard Floyd in Week 5). If Bosa plays, look for another Solid Tier player to plug in instead, or consider Tuipolotu a Solid (Deeper) Tier play if necessary.
Maliek Collins, DT, SFO (🎓🎓🎓)
Just as I don’t run out to buy players who have big weeks if the numbers don’t back it up, I also don’t sell players after a down week unless the metrics raise alarm bells. Collins had a forgettable fantasy Week 6 but still played 76%of snaps and put up 59.2 grades against both the run and pass which are not too far off of his season averages. While the Chiefs have not been a favorable matchup for opposing DTs this season, they allowed over 20 points each and 50 points combined to Khalen Saunders (59.0 overall PFF grade) and Bryan Bresee (37.9 overall PFF grade) in Week 5 before their bye.
B.J. Hill, DT, CIN (🎓🎓🎓)
Hill thrived in his revenge game in Week 6 putting up season-high fantasy stats on his way to an overall DT7 performance. The Bengals are the healthiest they have been at DL all season and Hill still played an impressive 70% of snaps against the Giants. Hill is among the most consistent DTs this season and is only one of seven at the position to earn run defense and pass rush grades of 66 or better. The Bengals face the Browns in the Battle for Ohio this week and have given up 34.59 fantasy points per game to opposing DTs in 2024 which places them near the league average. Despite a neutral matchup, Hill has the opportunity and talent to warrant streaming consideration.
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, MIA (🎓🎓)
Back after the Dolphins' bye, much of what I had previously written about Emmanuel Ogbah still rings true. His snap shares are near ideal at 75-83% in the two weeks leading into the bye, his PFF defensive grades are good, not great at 64.4 (run) and 58.2 (pass) and he has been moderately productive with 10 pressures, 18 tackles, two sacks, and a memorable interception this season. After allowing a combined 73.8 points to Jaguars DEs in Week 5, the Colts held strong in Week 6 allowing 23 fantasy points to Harold Landry and 1.5 to all other Titans DEs. Ogbah is expected to draw a tough matchup against Bernhard Raimann who is the 6th best pass-blocking OT in 2024 but remains a viable streaming option for deeper leagues.
Mike Danna, DE, KC (🎓🎓)
After missing Week 4 with an injury, Danna was back in Week 5 and played a season-high 77% of snaps. The Chiefs face the 49ers this week and there looks to be little competition for snaps as Danna has established himself as the clear #2 to George Karlaftis in the KC edge rotation. Danna has a modest 58.7 pass rush grade but that number increases slightly to 60.9 in true pass rush sets. Danna also has a nice floor with 14 tackles (eight solo) in only four games this season and only one true dud performance. In a picked-over DE population, there are several DT I like more than Danna this week but if you are looking for a high-snap edge in DE-required formats, Danna is worth considering but it is worth noting that he has a questionable tag early in the week. If he is out and Anfernee Jennings in New England is still available, I would look in that direction for a replacement.
DL Available in 90% of IDP Leagues
Travis Jones, DT, BAL (🎓🎓🎓)
As I noted above, I don’t recommend chasing points unless the underlying numbers are there and they certainly are for Travis Jones. Jones jumped onto the DT scene last week with a 25.95-point performance against the Commanders. What makes this even more impressive is that he accomplished this feat without seeing a significant uptick in snaps (71% in Week 6, 67% in Week 5, 69% in Week 4). Jones is quietly PFF’s 4th overall rated IDL in 2024 with an 80.6 run defense grade and a 69.2 pass rush grade. With teammate Nnamdi Madubuike drawing attention after a breakout 2023, Jones looks to continue to build on his own momentum in Week 7 against Tampa Bay.
T’Vondre Sweat, DT, TEN (🎓🎓🎓)
There was a song by the Velvet Underground featured in 2007’s Juno called “I’m Sticking With You” that I can’t help by hear as I think about T’Vondre Sweat. Sweat had his worst outing of the season in Week 6 but is still PFF’s top-rated rookie IDL and 20th overall. I’m sticking with Sweat this week as he looks to bounce back against the Bills who have been a tough matchup for opposing DT this season but have also given up several solid DT fantasy performances and are suspect in the interior offensive line with only Center Connor McGovern rated in the top third of their position.
Adam Butler, DT, LVR (🎓🎓🎓)
Despite no real breakout game, Butler is a DT2 this season currently ranking 24th in scoring at the position. He is the definition of a floor play never scoring under seven fantasy points in a single game but also not exceeding 22. Butler is averaging 85% of snaps over the last three games, an incredibly high rate for an interior defensive lineman. His performance on the field has been solid posting run defense and pass rush grades over 60 on the season. This week the struggling Raiders face the Rams who have been trending in the right direction as a fantasy matchup with two of the last three DT groups they faced exceeding their season average and the Pacekers (pre-bye) doubling their average when playing the Rams.
Azeez Ojulari, DE, NYG (🎓🎓)
If you listen to the IDP Start/Sit Show on Sunday mornings, you would know that a few weeks ago I thought someone was asking if they should start Azeez Ojulari and stopped just short of saying it was a terrible question (the listener was actually asking about Azzez Al-Shaair). What a difference a few weeks can make! With teammate Kayvon Thibodeaux going on IR but stud edge Brian Burns and unstoppable interior force Dexter Lawrence (an alumni of past years’ “DL Deep Dives”), Ojulari finds himself in a position to thrive in New York coming off a two-sack performance in Week 6 while playing 77% of snaps. The Eagles have been a slightly advantageous matchup this season allowing at least one 18+ point fantasy DE in every game this season making Ojulari a good but somewhat speculative play given his small sample size.
Note: If you are not listening to the IDP Start/Sit Show on Sundays at 10 ET on YouTube and Twitter, you really should since Jeff Pomazal and a rotating group of guests do a fantastic job answering every single question submitted (even when it takes over 2.5 hours)!
Arden Key, DE, TEN (🎓🎓)
Since Tennessee is “Music City, USA” and I used “I’m Sticking With You” to describe my feelings for teammate Sweat, let’s just say “I’m Never Gonna Give You Up” about Arden Key! Technically, that’s not 100% accurate as a dip in snap share or performance would have me moving on from Key but despite burning readers last week in the fantasy column, he still played 76% of snaps and earned a 68 overall PFF grade (good for 33rd among all edges in Week 6). The Bills have allowed 20.87 fantasy points per game to the DE position in 2024, making them the worst matchup possible this week. Still, given the other DE options available in as many leagues as Key, I will opt for opportunity and talent over an advantageous matchup.
Charles Harris, DE, CAR (🎓🎓)
Harris has emerged as a staple for the Panthers' defensive line with a snap share of 76% when teammate Jadeveon Clowney missed last week's game with D.J. Johnson acting as Clowney's replacement. Neither Harris nor Johnson have put up great PFF numbers or fantasy output so, to be clear, this is primarily a volume play. The Panthers face the Commanders who have been a tough matchup for opposing DEs this season allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to the position and their pace of play ranks 16th. Suppose Harris once again plays 70% of snaps and the Commanders hit their season average of 62 offensive plays per game. In that case, there are roughly 44 opportunities for Harris to make a few tackles to be a viable deep streamer.
Good luck and if you have any questions about deep DL plays, my office is always open on Twitter (@ProfessorIDP). While this article is a freebie, please consider supporting me, the show, and the broader IDP community by adding your league(s) to the 2024 State of IDP Survey!
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