ADP This or That: Decisions That Could Make or Break Your Draft
Josh looks at pivotal moments in D-UP's ADP that drafters will need to ace if they want to win.
Inspired by the ADP-focused series at PFF and Underdog, today I’m diving into the ADP for FastDraft’s D-UP contest to find those critical decisions in drafts that could make or break your team. I’ll examine two players going back-to-back in the ADP (with one exception) in each round to decide which way drafters should lean.
These decisions will not be tied to one specific team, but for each round, I’ll look earlier in the ADP to consider what type of build this drafter might have when making this decision (since ADP decisions don’t happen in a vacuum).
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Preamble over, let’s get to the draft takes!
Round 1: Will Anderson (9) vs. Zack Baun (10)
Throughout this article, I’ll be referencing each player’s point total by Big 3 Scoring in 2024 (which is similar to D-UP scoring) and Mike Woellert’s projections for 2025 (which include D-UP scoring settings) to help make my case, and according to both metrics, Zack Baun is the better choice here at the end of the 1st round.
Anderson built on his strong 2023 rookie campaign last season, averaging 14.69 PPG across 14 games. Baun, an afterthought in New Orleans, came out of nowhere to average 16.72 PPG across 16 games and finish as LB2 behind only Zaire Franklin.
Baun was rewarded with a 3-year, $51 million deal, while Anderson will be eligible for a new contract after the 2025 season. Both players are premier assets in IDP in every format: dynasty, redraft, and best ball. The choice here is not about hating on one player over the other, but rather grabbing as many points as possible.
There’s every chance Anderson surges to the top of the DL mountain and Baun, while still good, slides back to the LB1/2 range rather than the top 3. But LB is a more stable position year-to-year due to the reliability of tackles versus sacks and TFLs, so once you’re outside of the big 5 edge rushers in round 1 (Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, and T.J. Watt), LB is likely the best path to 250+ points.
Mike has Baun projected for more points in D-UP, and I agree.
Winner: Zack Baun
Round 2: Danielle Hunter (14) vs. T.J. Edwards (15)
Let’s say the team facing this decision selected Nick Bosa in Round 1 (an insane value at 8 overall), and is now wondering: do I go LB or DL in Round 2?
T.J. Edwards is an appealing option here. He averaged 13.8 PPG in 2024 and finished as LB8. In 2023, he was LB6. Danielle Hunter was DL11 last year (13.67 PPG) and was DL4 in 2023. Of all the decisions in this article, this one is the toughest.
It’s reasonable if you want to take Edwards (who Mike has projected for more points in 2025), but the best choice is likely Hunter for one reason: LB value in later rounds is abundant, whereas the DL well dries up quickly. Look at the 5th round:
Terrel Bernard, Josey Jewell, Jack Campbell, and Lavonte David are still available, and while they have question marks, they could all finish as top 12 LBs
The DL options in that round are all DTs (Jalen Carter, Leonard Williams, and DeForest Buckner), all of whom are less likely to finish as top 12 DL
Going with Bosa and Hunter in the first two rounds paves the way for this team to scoop up the abundant LB value in later rounds, especially if they’re angling for a balanced or LB-heavy build. Even if they went LB at 1.07 (say Bosa went before their pick), that makes Hunter an even smarter decision here because failing to lock up a top-tier DL in the first two rounds will likely undermine the upside needed to win a contest like D-UP where, because of the shallow builds, every team is loaded.
Winner: Danielle Hunter
Round 3: Egderrin Cooper (24) vs. Brian Branch (25)
In the middle of the 3rd round, we find the highest-drafted DB in Brian Branch, who finished as the IDP11 in 2024 (sandwiched between Jonathan Greenard and Frankie Luvu, who both went off the board in the previous round), pitted against the #1 IDP in the 2024 fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17), Edgerrin Cooper (26.37 PPG in that span).
Drafting in the middle of each of the previous two rounds, let’s give this team Maxx Crosby and T.J. Edwards, which is why they’re considering Branch here in the 3rd. Getting 2024’s IDP11 a full 14 spots later in 2025 is a value, there’s no doubt there, especially for an ascending player who could perform even better this year.
This decision comes down to two factors:
DB volatility year-to-year makes fading DB one of the wisest decisions in IDP
Collectively at The IDP Show, we are very, very high on Cooper for 2025
To that second point, Mike has Cooper projected as his LB2 for 2025 by D-UP scoring. Mike also loves Branch, though, and has him projected for more points than Cooper by D-UP scoring. If anyone can repeat or even surpass an IDP11 finish, it’s Branch, but 2024 could also be the best season of his career. Cooper, on the other hand, has yet to touch the ceiling we believe exists for the exciting second-year LB.
Winner: Edgerrin Cooper
Round 4: Dexter Lawrence (34) vs. Jamien Sherwood (35)
Adam’s DT5 for dynasty, Dexter Lawrence is as dominant a force for IDP as he is on the football field (PFF’s 3rd graded DT in 2024). Jamien Sherwood, a converted safety, took advantage of his opportunity in 2024 (after C.J. Mosley went out), finishing as LB13 and earning himself a 3-year, $45 million contract this offseason.
For DT-required leagues, this would be a legit conversation, especially given Lawrence’s sack upside (7 sacks per season on average since 2022). But D-UP has no positional requirements, and given that, DTs lose much of their appeal. By Big 3 Scoring, only three of the top 12 DL in 2024 were DTs. In 2023, it was zero.
The needle you have to thread with DTs is so small that the gamble isn’t worth it in a format where only 60 players get drafted. Lawrence gives you a nice tackle floor (3.75 per game since 2022), but it’s not enough to select him over Sherwood, who was less than 1 point away from a top 12 finish in 2024 and should be locked into a three-down role given the big payday the new Jets regime gave him. If we assume this is the same team from the previous discussion, starting with Maxx Crosby, T.J. Edwards, Edgerrin Cooper, and Jamien Sherwood is a beautiful mix of high upside and safe floor.
Winner: Jamien Sherwood
Round 5: Alex Anzalone (46) vs. Jack Campbell (48)
There are many examples in the D-UP ADP of teammates with similar outlooks going several picks (or even a full round) apart. In every instance, I’ll think it’s best practice to simply take the discount: Danielle Hunter over Will Anderson, Jamien Sherwood over Quincy Williams, and now Jack Campbell over Alex Anzalone.
I understand the logic with the first two examples, but I think the market is straight-up wrong on this one. Anzalone missed six games in 2024 with a broken forearm, is seeking a new contract this offseason, and in the last two games of the season (Week 18 and in the Divisional Round), played second fiddle to Campbell (100% snaps).
Those last two facts tell me Campbell is fully cleared for takeoff in 2025, and if anyone loses snaps under new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, it’ll be Anzalone. No matter what kind of build a team has coming into Round 5, if they’re looking for LB and deciding between these two options, Campbell is the Detroit LB they want.
Winner: Jack Campbell
Round 6: Bobby Wagner (59) vs. Laiatu Latu (60)
There are two ways I like to play the 6th round of D-UP drafts: shore up my floor after going with higher upside picks in the previous five rounds, or raise my ceiling after playing it safe. If I’m swinging for upside, I like to do it one of two ways:
Take a low-ownership LB with top 12 upside if injuries happen
Take a low-ownership DL who could lead the league in sacks
Laiatu Latu represents the latter archetype, but even then, he’s not the player I want to take a swing on given that more proven players like Chop Robinson, George Karlaftis, Khalil Mack, Will McDonald, and Harold Landry are going later.
I also think Bobby Wagner is being severely underrated in this contest. The LB17 in 2024 and the LB7 in 2023 almost being undrafted is ludicrous. Yes, I understand that he’s older and that the wheels will fall off at some point. Given that Wagner is PFF’s #3 LB headed into 2025, I don’t think the fall-off is coming this season, though.
I want to finish my drafts with either a 4/2 build (either way) or a 3/3 build, so assuming this team isn’t already rostering four LBs, they should snag Wagner four rounds later than his teammate, Frankie Luvu, who only outscored him by 34 points in 2024. And if they are carrying four LBs into Round 6 and need that high-upside DL to finish things off, they’d be smart to scroll down a bit for better options than Latu.
Winner: Bobby Wagner
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