14 Dynasty IDP Buys Before the NFL Draft
Now is a great time to scour the dynasty landscape and add talent to your roster.
With most of the dust finally settled from free agency and the NFL Draft still a few weeks out, now’s a good time to take stock of the dynasty landscape, find the value, and add starters, future starters, or solid depth pieces.
For this pre-draft dynasty buys article, I’m more or less going to stay away from the IDPs covered elsewhere in various free agency post-mortems — unless, of course, I have a take that goes opposite to the masses. And as per usual, my goal is to provide IDP managers with some options that are somewhat off the radar. For those of you in leagues with 16 teams, 11 IDP starters, and roster sizes that stretch up toward 100 spots, it can be tough to find relevant content. My hope is you’ll come away from this article with more than a few players you can target in trades or scoop off waivers.
Edge Rushers
Before we get into the buys for this position, we need to examine the metrics that explain why certain defensive linemen are “buys” even if their box score stats or year-end finish weren’t the most impressive. First, sacks. While a major driver of scoring for defensive linemen in fantasy, sacks are a bit of a fluky stat and not always a measure of a great play by an individual defender. The pocket might break down because the pass coverage is so good, the quarterback might trip over his own feet and fall down, or a well-executed stunt allows a looping pass rusher an unblocked run at a quarterback. To summarize: not all sacks are created equal.
Tackles for loss and quarterback hits (making physical contact with the quarterback) are better statistical indicators of disruption. PFF pressures are widely seen as another sure indicator of pass rush goodness. I look at that number, too.
There are two specific, slightly more complicated metrics I like as well. The first is called “QB hurries and hits to sacks ratio.” (Not a sexy name, to be certain.) With hurries, PFF is trying to put a number on the number of times a pass rusher affects the quarterback’s throw, so they’re at least getting close to paydirt. I take PFF’s quarterback hurries and hits - two of the three numbers that go into PFF pressures (sacks are removed) - and use it as the denominator to a player’s official sack total. I can’t remember who to credit with the term “positive regression,” but that’s what we’re trying to identify with the “QB hurries and hits to sacks ratio.”
The second metric I like is “backfield disruption score.” It’s the sum of quarterback hits and tackles for loss, divided by defensive snaps, and multiplied by 100. I use numbers from Pro Football Reference, which match the NFL’s official statistics. Defensive linemen scoring 5.0 and above in this metric are typically in the running for the top 10 at the position (i.e. Nick Bosa with a 6.212 and Justin Madubuike with a 5.945). Really good but not great defensive linemen (i.e. Carl Granderson and Christian Barmore) are in the 3.8 range. EDGEs like Kwity Payes and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are down in the 2.4s. The names more or less fall about where you'd expect.
With that (important) preamble concluded, let’s talk buys at EDGE!
Gregory Rousseau, BUF
Buffalo has been steadfast in its commitment to a rotation on the edge, and it’s been a total bummer for Rousseau. In 2023 he led all Buffalo edge rushers with 585 snaps, a career high for the talented 2021 1st-round pick. I’m not confident the Bills will veer from their strategy, even after losing Leonard Floyd, and considering Von Miller’s decline as he enters his age-35 season. So why is Rousseau a buy? Honestly, he’s a lot better than those five sacks he posted in 2023.
Granted with fewer snaps it’s easier to achieve greater efficiency, but Rousseau’s backfield disruption score of 5.128 ranked 11th among edge rushers playing 400 or more snaps. In 2022, he was eighth with a score of 5.184. And while he was getting into the backfield, the sacks weren’t coming like they should. His QB hurries and hits to sacks ratio (0.102) was tied for 10th lowest among the same group of edge rushers. With that level of backfield disruption — even with the lower-than-desired snap count — Rousseau should be up in the 8-9 sack range, as he was in 2022 when he finished as a low-end DE2.
I’m making a fairly safe assumption that Buffalo exercises his fifth-year option and Rousseau is locked in there for at least two more seasons, and that’s not ideal as long as Sean McDermott is at the helm. But if low-end DE2 is the anticipated floor, Rousseau should be a good buy coming off his 2023 campaign. He’s also just entering his age 24 season, so there are another eight to 10 years of fantasy life in him.
Rousseau is my 16th overall dynasty EDGE and my No. 47 overall dynasty IDP. Adam has him as his 26th EDGE and 50th best dynasty IDP, and lists him with a 2nd-round trade compensation value. That seems fair given the first IDP comes off the board at 2.07 in Bobby’s Rookie Mock 2.0, and I’ll gladly take Rousseau over any of the incoming rookies.
Odafe Oweh, BAL
Like Rousseau, Oweh entered the league in 2021 and was also a 1st-round pick. He’s also failed to earn a large snap share. In fact, his 437 snaps played (in 13 games) represent a career low. The Ravens lost Jadeveon Clowney in free agency, however, and Kyle Van Noy’s return is up in the air. Oweh and David Ojabo find themselves atop the EDGE depth chart for now.
While Oweh’s backfield disruption score isn’t quite at Rousseau’s level, Oweh’s 3.670 mark is very solid. His five sacks weren’t representative of his impact though, and Oweh’s QB hurries and hits to sacks ratio of 0.109 reveals a path for higher output. I’m perhaps most excited about Oweh once he gets out of Baltimore. Both Za’Darius Smith and Matt Judon had to escape the 410 before hitting double-digit sacks, and I’m sort of expecting a similar career arc for Oweh.
Adam and I share a similar ranking on Oweh. I have him at No. 129 overall while Adam lists him at No. 130. Adam also lists him with a trade compensation value of a 3rd-round pick, and that’s fair, but I think you can get him at an even lower cost.
Malcolm Koonce, LV
Continuing with the trend of third-year edge rushers, Koonce (26 in June) is another target of mine following a breakout in the second half of the season. From Week 7 onward, Koonce provided us with high-end DE2 fantasy production, something I’m not sure anyone (Koonce included) could have seen coming after the Raiders drafted Tyree Wilson to pair with superstar Maxx Crosby.
Was it a fluke? I don’t think so. Koonce’s backfield disruption score of 5.190 put him in the top 10 among edge rushers playing 400 or more snaps. His 52 PFF pressures were comparable to both Rousseau (55) and Oweh (51). His eight sacks were right in line with what we should expect given his backfield disruption and pressures.
Can he exist as a fantasy asset with Crosby and Wilson? Absolutely. Following Las Vegas’ Week 13 bye, when Koonce’s snaps finally eclipsed the 50% mark, defensive coordinator Patrick Graham and staff seemed to decide they needed to abandon the existing game plan for Wilson, who was for the most part lining up outside the tackle. From Weeks 1-12, Wilson lined up outside the tackle on 302 snaps, 3 at tackle, and 18 snaps at 4 or 4i. From Weeks 14-18, Wilson was used in a much more versatile role, similar to his collegiate usage:
4 snaps at nose
32 at tackle
61 at 4 or 4i
72 outside the tackle
Assuming Wilson can thrive in that role — and he was at his best during that stretch with 15 of his 24 pressures and five of his eight quarterback hits — Koonce will receive the lion’s share of snaps on the right side of the defensive line.
While I’m not quite as high on Koonce as Adam (35th overall EDGE for Adam vs. 43 for me), I agree with the rookie 3rd-round trade value. And entering the final year of his rookie deal, I could see Koonce cashing in as a free agent next off-season.
Interior Defensive Linemen
This is a great offseason to shop for studs in your defensive tackle-required leagues. Two of my top four dynasty interior defensive linemen — Quinnen Williams and Dexter Lawrence — underperformed in the sack column in 2023.
Note that I’m including more interior defensive linemen than other positions, as it’s typically more difficult to find good advice on dynasty defensive tackles. Perhaps that’s due to the prevalence of three-position (DL, LB, DB) leagues due to Sleeper (see Scott Soltis’ excellent “State of IDP” article for more), but regardless I’m here for lineup requirements with two starting DTs.
Quinnen Williams, NYJ
In defensive tackle-premium leagues, poking around on Williams is almost always a non-starter. But it’s not often you have the opportunity to buy the consensus No. 1 overall option at a position on a dip, and that’s what we have with Williams, the top dynasty DT as agreed upon by Adam and all four IDP rankers at DLF (including yours truly).
Williams, of course, had a bit of an outlier season in 2022 with 12 sacks. His backfield disruption score of 5.797 ranked third among all defensive linemen (behind Nick Bosa and Josh Sweat), and his QB hurries and hits to sacks ratio hit a very unsustainable mark of 0.308. It was a season very similar to 2023’s top outlier, Justin Madubuike of the Ravens: 13 sacks, a 5.945 backfield disruption score, and a QB hurries and hits to sacks ratio of 0.260. But in 2023, Williams’ hits and hurries to sacks ratio dropped to 0.086, 23rd lowest among all interior defensive linemen with at least half a sack and 400 or more snaps played. His PFF pressures actually rose from 42 in 2022 to 70 in 2023, but his sack output fell to 5.5. A rebound is likely.
With Williams, you really need the right roster and trade partner to make something work. This will be a pricey purchase, as that studly 2022 season is still recent enough to be memorable, and Williams still hit low-end DT1 numbers in 2023. Adam lists Williams’ trade value as a 1st-round rookie pick; for a 26-year-old established stud, it’s probably going to have to be in the upper half of the 1st round in a one QB setup. Whether or not that’s worth it to you will depend on your team build and readiness to compete for a title, but in general, I’m good with it at 1.05 or 1.06 (and as high as 1.08 in a superflex) if it’s a defensive tackle-required league.
Dexter Lawrence, NYG
Among dynasty DTs, Lawrence ranks 4th for me and 9th for Adam. Like Williams, Lawrence saw his sack total dip from 2022 (7.5) to 2023 (4.5), but the rest of his metrics were stable. And like Williams, Lawrence is entering his age 26 season and has contract stability with his current franchise.
I get the knock on Lawrence: he lines up at nose or in the A gap much more than desired (502 of his 709 defensive snaps, according to PFF charting). But his strengths — quick feet and pass rush moves — still allow him to have success penetrating into the backfield. His 65 PFF pressures actually topped Madubuike (64) in 2024, but he lagged way behind in the QB hits and hurries to sacks ratio with a mark of 0.076, 18th lowest among all interior defensive linemen with at least half a sack and 400 or more snaps played.
As for trade compensation, Adam lists him with a 2nd-round value. The top rookie IDPs seem likely at this point to start coming off the board in the middle of round two in 12-team setups, and I prefer Lawrence to any of them except in leagues that tilt tackle-heavy.
Zach Allen, DEN
If you’re not willing to pay up for the likes of Williams or Lawrence, consider Allen, who is entering his age 27 season, his second in Denver. He’s progressively improved in each of his five seasons in the league, and saw his snaps jump from 660 with Arizona in 2022 to 913 in Denver last season. His PFF pressures rose from 35 to 60 over that timespan, but his sacks remained steady (5.5 in 2022, and 5 in 2023) and his QB hits and hurries to sack ratio dropped considerably from 0.190 to 0.094. Should his snaps remain consistent, the sack total should rise. There’s easy DT1 upside for my 16th-ranked dynasty defensive tackle, and the price to acquire (Adam lists it as a rookie 3rd-round pick) is reasonable.
Alim McNeill, DET
I wrote up McNeill in the defensive line free agency preview series, but McNeill’s situation has only improved over the past month. There’s still a perception that McNeill is a nose, but he’s totally shifted into 3-tech work, playing just 9 of his 559 snaps at 0- or 1-tech in 2023. This offseason, the Lions upgraded at nose from Benito Jones to D.J. Reader, further signaling a commitment to McNeil as the primary 3-tech.
Given he logged five sacks with a healthy backfield disruption score of 2.86, this isn’t so much of a buy from the standpoint that McNeill is an obvious candidate for more sacks, but he should if he plays a full slate of 17 games (he missed four games down the stretch with a knee sprain).
PFF's sixth-highest-graded interior defensive lineman, McNeill is a rising asset with three seasons under his belt before his 24th birthday. He’s also entering the final year of his rookie contract and has that extra motivation to produce headed into free agency next offseason.
Gervon Dexter, CHI
Justin Jones departed the Windy City for the desert climate in Arizona, taking 740 defensive snaps that have yet to be replaced. Gervon Dexter, who I also wrote about in the interior defensive line free agency preview, stands to be the main beneficiary as the top 3-tech on a thin depth chart. Dexter has quick feet and adequate size at 6-foot-5 and 312 pounds, and he’s already shown the ability to get into the backfield in pass sets, with 12 quarterback hits (tied for second among rookies with Calijah Kancey, behind only Kobie Turner, both of whom played significantly more snaps) and a PFF pass rush win rate of 11.9% (equal to fellow rookie Tuli Tuipulotu). The price of acquisition should be minimal.
Linebackers
Good dynasty linebacker buys are tough to come by right now. A ton of long-running dynasty IDP leagues never adjusted to the true position switch or scheme changes that led to fewer full-time linebackers. In tackle-heavy formats with up to four linebacker starters, off-balls (especially those who are proven and young) are expensive. In these leagues, my approach is to invest draft capital in youth and hope I hit, then buy old guys to bridge the gap and fill in on misses.
If I had a longer list of dynasty linebacker buys, you’d see many of the names that Mike Woellert included in his free agent landing spots summary: Azeez Al-Shaair (Houston) for now and long-term, and Josey Jewell (Carolina), Bobby Wagner (Washington), Kenneth Murray (Tennessee), and Jordan Hicks (Cleveland) as short-term (one- to two-year window) options. I’d also throw in Lavonte David (returned to Tampa Bay). Father Time is undefeated, but David’s giving him a run for his money.
For real dynasty buys, I have three names.
Trenton Simpson, BAL
Perhaps the biggest dynasty linebacker winner of free agency, Simpson’s rise-to-be was obvious the moment Baltimore selected him in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft. A hedge in case of Patrick Queen’s departure as a free agent, reality has played out in Simpson’s favor. As long as new defensive coordinator Zach Orr (a former Ravens linebacker) doesn’t switch to a primary single-linebacker scheme (I don’t expect that), Simpson should see close to full-time work next to Roquan Smith.
Simpson was an elite-level linebacker prospect despite slipping to the 3rd round. His 9.83 RAS demonstrated athleticism showcased by an ability to fly to the ball in pursuit, and those athletic attributes should help him transition well to the run-and-chase role with upside as a blitzer. And though we barely saw Simpson last season, he did see 26 snaps (42% snap share) in Week 18 with Smith resting for the playoffs. In that game, Simpson notched a sack and seven total tackles (two in the backfield).
I have an aggressive dynasty ranking on the soon-to-be 23-year-old Simpson at LB14 (No. 31 overall). Adam is much lower at LB28 (No. 79 overall), and offers a 2nd-round rookie pick as just compensation. I’m all over that one. Using DLF's trade finder I tool, I found a 32-team, two-copy contract league with a salary cap of $255.4 million. Simpson, with three years remaining on a rookie contract valued at $1.725 million, was traded for two 2024 picks: the 2.13 and 3.09. I'm taking that one too.
Frankie Luvu, WAS
I’m going contrarian here. Mike listed Luvu among his worst free agent landing spots, but Luvu still has my heart even after the Commanders doubled down on free agent linebackers by signing Bobby Wagner. Reuniting with Dan Quinn (the two were together in Seattle in 2013-14), Wagner is the easy favorite to lead the team in tackles. I won’t dispute that.
But Luvu signed a three-year deal, and it’s probable Washington envisions a versatile role for him, similar to the one he played during his breakout 2022 season in Carolina with 549 snaps in the box, 302 at EDGE, and 78 lined up over the slot. That usage allows Luvu to be at his hair-on-fire best, and provided fantasy managers with high-end LB1 production.
Even though Luvu will turn 28 just after the season kicks off, the 3rd-round rookie pick trade value Adam lists is a steal. He remains high in my dynasty rankings at No. 43 overall and No. 19 among linebackers.
Kyzir White, ARI
Arizona seems like a prime landing spot for a top rookie linebacker, but even with rookie competition, White looks safe as the Cardinals’ top option for at least another season. After that? Who knows, but as a 28-year-old linebacker coming off a season-ending torn bicep, you’re not paying a high price to begin with. My dynasty LB37, you can probably pluck White away for a 4th-round rookie pick.
The potential return for 2024 is a mid-level LB2, which is what White was providing fantasy managers before his injury. It shouldn’t shock anyone if White sticks in Arizona for another two to three seasons given his experience with Jonathan Gannon, so White has a decent shot to be more than a one-year rental.
Safeties
Unlike most other positions, the open market for safeties still offers some meat on the bone. Jamal Adams, Julian Blackmon, Quandre Diggs, Eddie Jackson, Kareem Jackson, John Johnson III, Marcus Maye, Justin Simmons, and Tracy Walker are among those still available at the time of this writing, so there are still some potential shake-ups on team depth charts.
Mike placed five safeties among his top 19 free agent landing spots: Taylor Rapp back to Buffalo, Xavier McKinney to Green Bay, Brandon Jones to Denver, Jeremy Chinn to Washington, and Kamren Curl to the Los Angeles Rams. I agree to varying degrees on all, and would be fine sniffing around for potential trades in leagues where you lack safety depth.
In particular, I’m all in on McKinney, and bumped him up to my overall S5 (No. 70 overall) after seeing him sign with the Packers. He’ll play every snap and should be a force near the line of scrimmage. He’d be on the pricier side for a safety buy, but certainly cheaper than top options like Antoine Winfield Jr. and Kyle Hamilton. Adam put his trade value at a rookie 3rd round pick, and I’m probably good with that given the top five IDPs came off the board by the end of the 2nd round of Bobby’s most recent rookie mock.
I’m typically not one to target popular safeties in trades though, so my buys are going to be found on the clearance rack rather than in the store window.
Julian Blackmon, FA
Blackmon was still shopping himself around at the end of March, but Indianapolis didn’t seem ready to close the door on the relationship. After all, job No. 1 for Chris Ballard is to keep the Colts’ own, and the Indy general manager may have started seeing other safeties (Kareem Jackson visited) but there has not yet been an offer to stick around for more than dinner and conversation.
A high-end S2 from 2023, Blackmon found his niche as a versatile downhill safety in Gus Bradley’s scheme after three seasons of uninspiring play in the post. While the rest of the NFL has long ago embraced pre-snap split-field coverage looks, Bradley harkens back to the Legion of Boom days with his heavy use of a single box safety. Per PFF, Blackmon lined up in the box a whopping 468 of his 987 defensive snaps in 2023, leading to 88 total tackles over 15 games.
Now’s a great time to buy for fantasy while the player is still a free agent. You can likely get him thrown in on a larger deal, or pick him up for a late rookie pick. The price will increase if (when?) he returns to Indy.
Donovan Wilson, DAL
Despite Mike Zimmer’s experience with Jayron Kearse in Minnesota, Dallas has not brought back the veteran, and doesn’t seem likely to with Markquese Bell and Juanyeh Thomas serving as capable backups to Wilson and Malik Hooker.
Wilson’s 2023 season started slowly, but after Week 5 he only dipped below 69% of snaps once, and finished as a low-end S2 from Week 5 onward. With a starting safety role all but assured, I’m anticipating a return to 2022 numbers, when Wilson tallied 101 total tackles and mid-S2 production on the season.
Now 29, Wilson is a short-term rental. And that’s fine at safety: cycling through cheap, short-term veterans is a viable dynasty strategy. Wilson should indeed come cheaply in any trade, especially if he’s rostered by a non-contender.
Ar’Darius Washington, BAL
If you’re in a large league and doing your safety shopping in the bargain bin, they don’t come much cheaper than Washington. I recently picked him up in a 14-team IDP-only league for a rookie pick trade down from 6.01 to 7.07 (and I probably overpaid). The biggest cost of acquisition is the roster spot he’ll fill. They also don’t come much smaller than Washington, who stands 5-foot-8 and has a listed weight of 177 pounds. If there was a reason he went undrafted in 2021, that was it.
In spite of the size limitations, Washington is no pushover. He’s strong, having reportedly squatted 640 pounds at TCU, and he put up 17 reps on the bench at the 2021 NFL Combine. He plays with the physicality of a linebacker.
What I like about Washington is opportunity, and a potential large role based on a small sample size from 2023. Washington served as Baltimore’s starting nickel defender for the first two weeks of the season, playing 98 snaps in the slot and 83% of available defensive snaps, before sustaining a chest injury that knocked him out for the remainder of the regular season. During those two weeks, he collected one sack on two quarterback hits, six solo tackles, five assists, and two passes defended. That was good for S2 fantasy numbers. Yes, two weeks is too small a sample size to read into, but the usage and production were promising.
Following free safety Geno Stone’s escape for the greener pastures of Cincinnati, the Ravens are without a doubt going to add to their safety room. Baltimore already has one of the best one-two safety punches in the NFL in Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, but nothing else on the current depth chart other than Washington. He figures to battle Arthur Maulet for primary slot duties, and if the two can effectively man the role, Hamilton should see significantly less time there going forward.
Washington will enter the 2025 off-season as a restricted free agent, so if he makes the most of his opportunity he’s locked into a good spot for two seasons.
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