What Should We Do with Dallas Turner?
What Should We Do with Dallas Turner?
Turner's positional eligibility is in question after running with the LBs at the Combine.
We’ve got a Dallas Turner Situation.
Not to be confused with the Bonnie Situation. We’re not trying to remove a dead body before someone’s wife comes home. However, it’s a delicate circumstance, since we have the makings of a muddled positional designation on our hands.
Dallas Turner turned heads with his monster showing at the NFL Combine. Most notably, his 40-yard dash. Turner ran a 4.46 with a 1.54 split. Running QBs better take note because this dude will run you down like a Terminator chasing John Connor. Turner’s 40 was faster than Jalen Hurts and hundredths of a second behind Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson.
Dallas Turner was Will Anderson’s sidekick over the last few seasons, but he escaped Anderson’s shadow when he left for the greener pastures of the NFL. Turner was just as incendiary and disruptive as his former running mate.
His 40 confirmed his off-the-snap burst and closing speed, and if he finds himself on a team utilizing a wide-9, he’ll be a problem. He builds up his momentum, which will be an issue for mobile, running QBs.
During the 2023 season, Turner generated an 18.9% pressure rate and a 32.5% win rate, besting Anderson’s 17% pressure rate and 27.1% win rate in 2022. Turner’s athleticism is off the charts and he’s played for winning programs throughout his football career.
There is nothing not to like about Turner’s upside and prospects of a prosperous NFL career.
So, why is this a problem for his potential IDP managers?
Well, Dallas Turner ran with the linebackers at the Combine. However, he’s not a traditional off-ball linebacker, which muddies the waters a bit in terms of how to draft him.
College Alignment
2021: 361 DL/EDGE snaps, 1 off-ball LB snaps
2022: 569 DL/EDGE snaps, 61 off-ball LB snaps
2023: 616 DL/EDGE snaps, 12 off-ball LB snaps
That’s 1,546 edge snaps and just 74 snaps as an off-ball LB. This matters for a few reasons:
Your league’s scoring
Positional designation flexibility
Turner is productive from a big play standpoint but recorded an 8.2% tackle rate, resulting in 53 tackles. If he’s classified as an LB, this rate is well below the ideal rate of 10% we want our off-ball linebackers to generate. It’s not representative of the player Turner is and he shouldn’t be compared to the other off-ball LBs in this year’s class.
If you’re using a balanced or big play scoring format like Big 3 Scoring, his LB designation may not be an issue. Big 3 Scoring takes into account and scores for these plays, in addition to sacks (the number in parenthesis represents Turner’s 2023 number):
QB hits (11)
Tackles for loss (14.5)
Sack yards (68)
Now, if you’re in a tackle-heavy format, he’ll be devalued as a designated LB. Over his three seasons at Alabama, he produced a 7.2% tackle rate, resulting in 120 tackles. At 2 points per solo/1 point per assist, he’s going to be well behind the top off-ball LBs when it comes to tackle production.
So, what do we do with Dallas Turner?
When Turner hits your fantasy platform, he might have dual eligibility or the EDGE/DL designation. In that case, you’re good. You can draft Turner with confidence.
But what if he has the LB tag? In that case, evaluate your roster and your league’s scoring. If you’re in a tackle-heavy format, and set at LB and need help at the DL spot, I think you can afford to take Turner and project his position to change during an update or next season.
No matter the format, I’m usually a proponent of taking the best player available no matter the position. If you’re loaded at LB, I think it’s worth the risk of the positional change. With all things being equal and you’re just looking to add depth, I’m taking Payton Wilson over Dallas Turner.
In a big play format, I’m once again evaluating my roster closely. Dallas Turner and Payton Wilson are close. With Big 3 Scoring, solo tackles are 1.25 points, but those added stats make Turner more intriguing. A sack usually triggers the other stats: points for the sack, QB hit, and tackle for loss.
I still might be taking Wilson over Turner, mainly because of positional scarcity. The number of three-down LBs continues to dwindle, especially LBs who contribute right away. I believe there’s a closer gap between Turner and the other edge rushers in this draft: Laiatu Latu, Bralen Trice, Jared Verse, Mohamed Kamara, and Chop Robinson.
I’m also a big “get your guys” advocate, so if you key in on Turner as a “my guy,” by all means, have some fun and get your guy. The NFL Draft is a great time of year, but we’re still trying to project the unknown.
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