Top Offseason Storylines Impacting IDP: AFC Edition
Jason King wraps up his team-by-team look at the storylines, roster questions, and speculative IDP moves that will shape the dynasty offseason.
The offseason is here for 24 teams, eight of which are on the hunt for a new head coach. And in four weeks, the season will be over, and all attention will be on offseason roster building. We’re already there with our dynasty squads, and in part two of this series, we’re asking the questions and examining the storylines that will define the IDP offseason.
Credits: Pressures, pass rush win rates, and alignment data are per Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted. Contract information is derived from OverTheCap.com.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Shop in the Scratch-and-Dent Section for a Banged-Up Bernard
Prior to Buffalo’s Wild Card win in Jacksonville, it didn’t seem unreasonable that Bills ownership may want to move on from Sean McDermott. Such a move would have drastically altered the IDP landscape with any Bills assets, but a change seems highly unlikely now. The big questions I have for dynasty are in the linebacker room. Soon-to-be 31-year-old Matt Milano and soon-to-be 32-year-old Shaq Thompson are in the twilight of their careers and are entering free agency.
Terrel Bernard is signed through 2029, but he may not see any years post-2026 if he endures another injury-riddled season like 2025. With Dorian Williams entering the final year on his rookie contract, I’d be hoping—not counting on—the Bills giving him a real shot at the No. 2 role to see if he’s a long-term fixture. If not Williams, perhaps 2024 preseason star Joe Andreessen can carve out a larger role by 2027, when it’s conceivable he’s the longest-tenured off-ball in Buffalo.
Ultimately, given last offseason’s commitment to Bernard, I’m shopping for shares at a discount, as managers are justifiably frustrated following a season that saw him play just 621 snaps due to various ailments.
Miami Dolphins: Get Chop In the Shop
Miami hit the reset button by moving on from general manager Chris Grier at the end of October, and head coach Mike McDaniel after the season ended. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has been interviewing for head coaching jobs.
Whoever leads the defense, one of their top responsibilities will be to help Chop Robinson become the best version of himself. The speedy 2024 first-rounder turned in a dud of a sophomore season with just 4 sacks and 19 pressures, and suffered two concussions along the way. Further, the second-half surge that many expected following the trade of Jaelan Phillips never materialized. The good news is he just turned 23, and showed production early (56 snaps and six sacks as a 21-year-old rookie). This is still a talent I believe in, and I’m willing to buy at a low price.
New England Patriots: Is There an EDGE to be Had?
Kudos to the Patriots for moving on quickly from the Jerod Mayo mistake and hiring Mike Vrabel, who brought instant on-the-field competence and wins. Outside of rookie safety Craig Woodson, New England mostly fielded a veteran team, and I don’t expect that to change much in 2026.
The main thing I’ll be watching is what moves the Patriots make at the EDGE spot opposite Harold Landry III, who realistically will only see another season or two of the three years remaining on his contract. Free agent-to-be K’Lavon Chaisson was adequate but nothing special. Anfernee Jennings doesn’t seem like a fit for Vrabel’s defense and is sure to be released. New England will have cap money to go after an available EDGE, and I’d expect that EDGE to be a fantasy asset for a couple of seasons.
New York Jets: Maybe Saleh Wasn’t So Bad After All
Well, that was a disaster. Year one under Aaron Glenn resulted in Gang Green’s worst season since Adam Gase roamed the sidelines. While Glenn managed to retain his job (so far), Steve Wilks couldn’t make it through the season as defensive coordinator, and Glenn is on the hunt for a new one.
If you’re looking for bright spots on this roster, Jowon Briggs was a surprise contributor at defensive tackle. A seventh-round pick of the Browns in 2024, Briggs helped ease the pain of the Quinnen Williams trade with 38 pressures and four sacks. His Next Gen Stats pressure rate of 12.2% ranked 21st among all qualifying defensive linemen—yes, that includes EDGE rushers. Briggs is an exclusive rights free agent, so he’ll be back with the Jets. Even if they bring in a big name in free agency or a high draft pick, Briggs should remain active given that the tackle room otherwise lacks juice.
Elsewhere, Quincy Williams is a free agent, and it’s hard to imagine he wants to run it back given Glenn benched him at one point. Rising sophomore Kiko Mauigoa at the moment has a nice path to starter snaps opposite Jamien Sherwood, and should at minimum receive an opportunity to carve out a big role.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Please Don’t Pigeonhole K-Ham
One of the most stable franchises in the league sent a shockwave throughout the NFL when it fired John Harbaugh. Baltimore is, in part, reeling from former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s ascent to Coach of the Year candidate, and it could bring back a familiar face in former defensive backs coach Jesse Minter. It could also go in a totally different direction, and I’ll be watching to see who ends up leading the defense for the foreseeable future.
The primary fallout with the change could be how the new staff deploys its safeties, namely Kyle Hamilton. At his best for fantasy as a do-anything playmaker, whether over the slot, in the box, or showing as a pass rusher on the line of scrimmage, Hamilton is also a good deep safety. Whether out of necessity (Alohi Gilman and Ar’Darius Washington are free agents) or preference, a defensive playcaller who wants to see Hamilton protecting the back end as a post safety would be terrible for Hamilton’s production.
It would also hurt to see the Ravens go with a higher percentage of split-field looks (Baltimore aligned in middle-of-the-field open coverages at one of the lowest rates in the league), which would also pull Hamilton further back of the line. So keep your fingers crossed for your Hamilton shares that the Ravens sign a starting-caliber safety in free agency to pair with Malaki Starks, and hire a head coach or defensive coordinator with strong middle-of-the-field closed tendencies so Hamilton is free to align closer to the line.
I’m also looking for any word on Nnamdi Madubuike’s health. The stud 3-tech suffered a neck injury in Week 2 that kept him out for the rest of 2025, and all’s quiet on the recovery front. If I see any glimmer of good news, I’ll be quick to get out offers that involve Madubuike in defensive tackle-required leagues.
Cincinnati Bengals: Help Wanted
It’s cliché to call the 2025 Bengals a historically bad defense, but they had a rough go of it, and I’m kind of surprised defensive coordinator Al Golden wasn’t jettisoned after one season. Golden’s status aside, Cincinnati needs new faces at all three levels of the defense. At EDGE, Trey Hendrickson is a free agent and is as good as gone. Joseph Ossai is also slated for free agency, and even if he is retained, his snap share needs to drop significantly from the 67% he played in 2025. Due to injuries, we saw little from 17th overall pick Shemar Stewart. B.J. Hill offered little juice as an inside pass rusher, with just 29 pressures over 354 pass rush snaps.
Linebacker play was horrid—not surprising given rookies Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter each played almost 800 snaps. At safety, Geno Stone is a free agent, and I think it’s safe to say folks in the Queen City have seen enough of him in tiger stripes.
There are positives—I had to check myself after writing that, but yes, I believe it. Myles Murphy actually showed signs of life. Not enough that the club would consider picking up his fifth-year option this offseason, but enough that he’ll likely be counted on to play 700-plus snaps entering year four. Jordan Battle cleaned up the missed tackles as the season went along, missing (per PFF) 11 tackles over the first six games, then six over his final 11.
In my mind, the top IDP storyline will be complementary veteran additions on short-term deals, with defensive investments on days one and two of the draft. It’s not a great year to go free agent shopping for defensive tackles or post safeties given the market, but there are a good number of linebackers and EDGE rushers. Essentially, I’m thinking the EDGE and off-ball groups get watered down in the short-term, which, of course, isn’t good for IDP purposes.
I’m not necessarily out on the rookie linebackers for dynasty, but I’d be OK selling either with a likely lower-cost buy-back opportunity after the first week of free agency, or in-season. I’d expect the Bengals to consider an extension for Battle, but given he’s coming off an S1 outing, he’s not a good trade target.
Cleveland Browns: May the Schwartz Stay with You
Since re-emerging as an expansion franchise in 1999, the Browns have had a remarkable history of ineptitude with just four winning seasons. Gross! In 2025, that futility had nothing to do with the defense, and this team is stacked with IDP cornerstones—Carson Schwesinger (my No. 1 dynasty linebacker), Myles Garrett (my No. 6 dynasty EDGE despite his 30 years), and Mason Graham (my No. 12 tackle), plus other rosterable assets including safety Grant Delpit.
The storyline here mainly revolves around the head coaching search following the dismissal of Kevin Stefanski. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz interviewed for the head job, and even if he doesn’t get the gig, any offensive-minded head coach would be smart to retain Schwartz and stay out of his way. If Schwartz doesn’t return, we could see a significant change in coverage scheme since the Browns led the league in man coverage rate (43.4% according to Sharp Football Analytics) in 2025. Of the confirmed or presumed head coaching candidates with a defensive background, only Denver’s Vance Joseph (32.1 percent) comes remotely close to man coverage tendencies.
In terms of specific IDPs, Devin Bush has been excellent as the No. 2 off-ball for two straight seasons, and I’d expect Cleveland to look to bring him back in free agency. If not Bush, I do like any linebacker in that complementary spot should Schwartz return. I don’t think restricted free agent Mohamoud Diabate has necessarily shown enough to be that guy, so the replacement would likely come in free agency or the draft. And if you’re wondering about Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, he’s under contract for 2026 but hasn’t seen a snap since suffering a neck injury in late October 2024. JOK has apparently been present with the team, even serving as a “Dawg Pound Captain” in December, but a return to the gridiron is a long shot.
Pittsburgh Steelers: “There Will Be No Revolution Without Bloodshed,” and Other Tomlinisms
Once again one-and-done in the playoffs, longtime head coach Mike Tomlin turned in his resignation on Tuesday. I was pretty disappointed with the lack of a good Tomlinism in that letter, but he provided plenty over his 19 years in Pittsburgh.
So in tribute, “the standard is the standard,” and that applies to the off-ball linebacker position. Patrick Queen has simply not played up to the Pittsburgh standard, and until Tomlin’s Tuesday bombshell, I had little hope of a return to a higher standard. We have no idea who the Steelers will settle on for their new head coach or how they’ll feel about Queen, but he is the big consideration for IDP—both for the short-term and for dynasty. The rising 27-year-old is entering the final year of a three-year contract and should be a cap casualty from both a numbers (would save $13.33 million against the cap with just $3.86 million in dead money) and a play standpoint.
Should Queen return or even be extended, we’ll maybe never see the IDP monster-in-waiting upside of Payton Wilson, who amassed 126 combined tackles on 732 snaps (a 63% snap share). Pittsburgh’s answer seems to be that Wilson is ill-equipped to handle run-down work, but so is everyone else! Just going by PFF grades, Queen (56), Wilson (57.7) and “run down” specialist Malik Harrison (60.4) are all similar in quality, but “there’s a fine line between drinking wine and squashing grapes,” and in tackle grade, Wilson (61.5) is far superior to either (Queen is an abysmal 30.1 and Harrison isn’t much better at 44.3). In Tomlin terms, “I don’t send messages. I just make moves.” The move at off-ball seems obvious for the new regime.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Life Is Good, and Future Extensions May Be On Tap
Anyone who watched Houston’s dismantling of Pittsburgh on Monday night understands this is one of the top defenses in the NFL. Barring defensive coordinator Matt Burke bagging a head coaching job, there shouldn’t be much drama. There are several key pieces lined up to hit free agency in the 2027 offseason, including 31-year-old EDGE Danielle Hunter, and linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’o To’o. So for the most part, I’m simply looking to see if any of those three get extended—a move that would provide some dynasty stability to those assets.
Indianapolis Colts: Pratt, Anarumo Need to Keep the Bromance Alive
After a successful first season as defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo is getting head coaching looks, which admittedly seems like a long shot—and seemed that way even before Harbaugh entered the market. So I feel relatively good in saying Indianapolis will see a year two of Sweet Lou. For that reason, I’m weirdly interested in Germaine Pratt. He’s a free agent entering his age-30 season, so there’s likely not a lot of meat left on the bone. But he’s Anarumo’s binky, and after the two former Bengals reunited in Indy, Pratt provided LB1 production from Week 6 onward. So while Zaire Franklin may or may not see one of the two years remaining on his contract, I’d bet Anarumo is more than willing to bring Pratt back for another season or two.
There are plenty of other storylines to follow here, starting up front with how big a play the Colts make at EDGE. Laiatu Latu took a nice step forward as a sophomore, but both Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam are free agents. Indianapolis will surely add competition for the spot, but if it’s not a high-level free agent or draft pick, J.T. Tuimoloau will see his stock rise.
Inside, both DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart will be 32 next season, so it makes sense for Indianapolis to draft an eventual replacement for one of them. Buckner is at the stage of his IDP lifespan that I’m just riding his career into its fantasy sunset, unless my team falls out of contention and a contender comes calling with a nice return package.
In the defensive backfield, free agency beckons Nick Cross, one of the top IDP safeties for two straight seasons. Given the investment in Camryn Bynum last offseason, the Colts may be hard-pressed to fork over another big contract at safety, so this could be a nice landing spot for a cheaper strong safety-type. There aren’t any in-house replacements.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Will DuvaLl Llose a Top Llinebacker?
Anthony Campanile is already getting head coaching looks, and that would be a shame for Jacksonville since the first-year defensive coordinator worked wonders with a secondary featuring the likes of Andrew Wingard, Eric Murray, and Antonio Johnson, and finally helped Devin Lloyd realize his first-round potential. Campanile’s fate is a big story, but for IDP, the bigger one is Lloyd.
Should he command a large enough free agent contract to leave Duval County, the new contract should lock him into full-time snaps with his new team and provide an opening for the Jaguars’ No. 2 job. Expect a pair of former fourth-rounders, Ventrell Miller (2023) and Jack Kiser (2025), to see decent value bumps following free agency. Either is worth a stash, even in 12-team leagues, as an ascending asset to move before the NFL Draft or see if one can win the job for 2026.
Tennessee Titans: Hopefully There’s No Gray Area with Young Stud Off-Ball
Job No. 1 for the new defensive coaching staff will be to bring in EDGE help. The EDGE group as a whole surprisingly generated 134 pressures, with Jihad Ward leading the way with 48. Still, Ward, Arden Key, and Jaylen Harrell are not the droids you’re looking for if you’re serious about contending for a division crown. Second-round pick Oluwafemi Oladejo should factor into future thinking, but it wouldn’t hurt to see the Titans prioritize two quality outside pass rushers in free agency given both Ward and Key are free agents.
At safety, rookie Kevin Winston Jr. had a nice close to the season as a free safety and slot defender, and I’d consider Xavier Woods a likely cap casualty in order to cement Winston’s spot as the long-term pairing next to Amani Hooker.
Perhaps the biggest unknown is how the new staff views second-year breakout Cedric Gray, who has vaulted up the dynasty linebacker rankings after a strong LB1 finish. I think the team’s other needs are too pressing to mess much at off-ball—and I don’t see Gray’s breakout as fluky—so I’m not too worried about it. I still like James Williams as a poor man’s Edgerrin Cooper (in time), and I’m still keeping him stashed in 14- and 16-team leagues with big taxi squads. For 2026, he’ll likely have to bide his time behind veteran Cody Barton.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Can Greenlaw Regain Value, or Will He Be Put Out to Pasture?
Denver made a couple of big moves last offseason to bolster a top-five defense when it brought over Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga from San Francisco. Hufanga was a literal smash, giving the Broncos attitude at strong safety. Greenlaw flopped as he struggled with injuries and played just 58.3% of available snaps over eight games. Entering his age-29 season, Greenlaw should have some gas left in the tank, and will be a year-and-a-half removed from his Super Bowl LVIII Achilles tear once the 2026 season kicks off.
It’s possible Denver makes him an offseason cap casualty (he has two years left on his contract, but he’s practically guaranteed to not see year three), but given Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad are free agents, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Greenlaw stick around as the LB2. Should Singleton and Strnad exit Denver as free agents, the stars could align for Greenlaw to slide into a full-time role. Regardless, the IDP world is very down on Greenlaw at the moment—rightfully so—and he’s a cheap buy with upside.
Kansas City Chiefs: McDuffie Slot Stans Unite!
Steve Spagnuolo has been a stalwart since taking over as the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator in 2019, but he’s getting head coaching interviews in this cycle. Regardless of whether Spags returns to Kansas City, the team must address its secondary this offseason. The Chiefs dearly missed Justin Reid as an enforcer and steady presence at safety, and Chamarri Conner struggled while moving into a full-time box safety/slot defender. Bryan Cook is fine as a free safety, but he’s a free agent. Jaden Hicks didn’t make a sophomore leap as many were hoping.
My hope (expectation?) is that however the safety positions shake out, Kansas City shifts Trent McDuffie back to his natural over-slot position. The last time McDuffie manned the slot as his primary position, in 2023, he was a first-team All-Pro and a low-end CB1 for fantasy. On the outside, getting Kristian Fulton healthy, bringing back free agent Jaylen Watson, and seeing continued development from promising 2025 third-rounder Nohl Williams would help the cause of getting McDuffie back inside.
For IDP, I’m watching whether Kansas City’s moves allow for that to happen, and if so, I’m looking to add McDuffie in corner-required leagues. Correspondingly, I’d pivot from Conner if you can find a trade partner who believes Conner’s S1 production is repeatable.
Las Vegas Raiders: Mad Maxx Is Just Mad. Will Vegas Cash Out?
Pete Carroll’s one season in Vegas was an unmitigated disaster, so we’ll have a new defensive coaching staff in place for 2026—or will we? Patrick Graham, the Raiders’ defensive coordinator since 2022, has already survived the deposition of Josh McDaniels and Antonio Pierce. Should Graham keep his job in the post-Carroll era, I suppose that could mean the team might consider bringing back Devin White at off-ball. Once a highly valued IDP asset during his rookie contract years in Tampa Bay, White bottomed out in 2024 during stints with the Eagles and Texans. When on the field, White is consistently productive—and consistently poor in quality of play, according to Pro Football Focus. I’m not exactly going to go shopping for shares, but should White return to the Silver and Black, he very well should remain valuable for IDP purposes, albeit on a year-in, year-out basis.
The real story to watch revolves around superstar EDGE Maxx Crosby, who is said to be at major odds with the franchise in part based on the team’s decision to stick him on injured reserve prior to Week 17. Mad Maxx has been one of IDP’s top assets for several seasons, but Vegas should consider cashing out—and fantasy managers should too. The return has to be really good, of course, but some red flags have my attention.
Tops is his pressures per snap rate, which at 5.67% is Crosby’s lowest since 2020, and second lowest of his career. And I’m concerned that massive snap shares—he’s played 6,449 defensive snaps through seven seasons—may be taking their toll. Crosby has always been great at converting pressures to sacks, so I’m not selling at all costs, but he’s no longer in my elite tier of IDP assets.
Los Angeles Chargers: Minter Rises As Henley Stumbles
The Chargers have a pretty fascinating offseason on tap with plenty of IDP storylines to follow, and I’m having a hard time focusing on just one. Atop the list is Jesse Minter’s likely departure for a head coaching position. The second-year coordinator is one of the top young (yes, 42 sounds young to me, sadly) defensive minds in the game, and in a somewhat shallow pool of coaching candidates, seems almost certain to land a job despite the lack of recent buzz about him from national media types. Minter’s next move will have ripple effects on the Chargers and his next team, with Baltimore being an obvious easy line to draw given Minter’s four years with the organization (2017-20, culminating with his final season as defensive backs coach).
As far as IDPs, Daiyan Henley’s season was certainly a head scratcher given he broke out in 2024 with strong LB2 production, and he was an every-down off-ball in a defense that finished second in zone coverage percentage, according to Sharp Football Analytics. His tackle total dropped from 147 to 103 despite playing just 66 fewer snaps, and his fantasy production was buoyed by 3.5 sacks. I’m watching for news on whether the Chargers are engaged with his camp on a long-term contract extension—Henley is wrapping up year three on his rookie contract—an indication the franchise isn’t concerned with deterioration of play leading to the drop in production. If I see that news before an extension is reached, I’m pushing hard on opportunities to buy, and honestly, I’m shopping for deals on Henley regardless. The point is that if/once an extension is reached, the cost to acquire in fantasy will likely rise.
Elsewhere at off-ball, I’m looking for any positive news regarding Junior Colson. The 2024 third-round pick out of Michigan, where Colson played for Minter and head coach Jim Harbaugh, missed all of 2025 with a shoulder injury. His fantasy value has cratered, but there’s still opportunity should the Chargers finally move on from Denzel Perryman and play it cool at off-ball in free agency and the NFL Draft. Colson may be cooked already, but I still like picking him up for cheap where I can.
The EDGE spot opposite Tuli Tuipulotu is also intriguing. Khalil Mack is entering his age-35 season and is a free agent, as is in-season acquisition Odafe Oweh. The former Raven exploded with 7.5 sacks after being traded before Week 6 despite staying in line with his career season pressure totals. Bud Dupree might not see the final year of his contract, but regardless, if the Chargers fail to bring back one of Mack or Oweh, Kyle Kennard becomes an interesting and free back-of-the-roster stash. The fourth-rounder barely played (80 defensive snaps) and did nothing of note, but he finished his college career with 11.5 sacks in the SEC. Long (6-foot-4 with an 81.5-inch wingspan) and quick off the line, Kennard could emerge as the third edge on passing downs—and Minter likes to put three EDGE rushers on the field together.
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