Top 10 Rookie Defensive Backs (Pre-Draft)
Top 10 Rookie Defensive Backs (Pre-Draft)
Mike Woellert sorts through a divisive DB class to find his favorite pre-draft prospects.
This year’s crop of defensive backs is tough to rank. You could ask 10 people and get different rankings, let alone a consensus number one overall. As we head into the NFL Draft and IDP rookie drafts, here are my pre-draft top-10 defensive backs.
1. Jaden Hicks, Washington State
Hicks checks a few boxes here. He had a 58% box rate and produced a tackle rate near 10% in 2023. An ankle injury has kept him from testing at the Combine, but he improved his stock at his Pro Day with a 4.48 40-yard dash. He’s one of the hardest hitting safeties in the draft and has good instincts in the pass game, allowing him to cover tight ends in space. He’s a violent hitter, runs through blocks, and has no problem playing up in the box.
As a deep safety, he had a 19.3% play-on-ball rate, which resulted in 2 INTs and 4 defended passes. He’s a proactive player and can see plays before they happen, allowing him to make the play instead of reacting to the play. He’s a solid tackler and two bad games (8 total misses) skewed his missed tackle rate. He just needs to be more consistent in man coverage. He has the traits of a linebacker and is projected as a safety who can play consistently near the LOS.
2. Beau Brade, Maryland
Brade is a physical safety and isn’t afraid of anyone. I’d love to see him take on Derrick Henry. He can handle a full workload of snaps, as he’s played over 1,500 snaps over his last two seasons. During the 2023 seasons, he played just over 50% of his snaps in the box and had a 71% LOS rate. Although the production dipped from 2022 to last season, he did play one fewer game and has still produced a 10.4% tackle rate while playing a three-down role.
Brade’s instincts and play anticipation make up for any lack of speed. You may not find anyone with more hunger to get to the ball. Strong communication to wear the dot and can read formations pre-snap with the best of them. Good length and wingspan, and uses them to his advantage to separate from blockers and contact. Brade just needs to clean up his tackling and make more fundamental tackles, as opposed to taking risks. He has a good build and has a plan to get around offensive linemen to get to the ball.
3. Malik Mustafa, Wake Forest
Mustapha earned a starting role in 2022 and never looked back. He turned in a solid 40, running a 4.54 with a 1.58 10-yard split. Mustapha has good range and improved his tackling and run defense during his time with Wake. He had solid production considering his snaps and produced a 12.5% tackle rate during his two full-time seasons with the Deacons. He had a 49% box rate and played 74% of his snaps on the LOS. He will hit you with the force of Ivan Drago and is a tone-setter.
Just look at this tackle against FSU:
He’s a well-rounded safety who can set the tone against the run, get to the QB, and track the ball in coverage. During his time at Wake, he produced a 20% play-on-ball rate, resulting in 7 defended passes and 3 INTs. Mustafa moves smoothly across the field like a sleek Doberman and has incendiary top speed. He’s a reliable tackler and puts an end to drives and snuffs out big plays. He plays quick and with control. Like a lot of safeties, he’ll put power ahead of fundamentals.
4. Kamren Kinchens, Miami
Kinchens looks like a solid target in Big3/big play scoring formats. He’s a solid athlete and has a good eye for the ball. He follows QBs and has good anticipation of where they’re going with the ball. In three seasons, Kinchens produced a 29% play-on-ball rate, resulting in 15 defended passes and 11 INTs. He matches up well against receivers and explodes when making the tackle. I love his hands and he competes for the ball. He has smooth strides and doesn’t lose any speed in pursuit. He’ll need some patience in the RPO games and can be a tad over-aggressive in pursuit. Landing spot will be key and if he’s drafted by a team with a solid DC, the sky’s the limit.
5. Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
The range of outcomes for Nubin’s draft spot is all over. Again, ask 10 people and you’ll get 10 different rankings. I’m comfortable slotting him in as my DB5. He’s got really good size and was a three-year starter with Minnesota. He fits that Kyle Hamilton mold of multifaceted players who can play anywhere. Last season, he played the majority of his snaps deep (468) and earned an 89.7 PFF grade as a deep safety.
He’s pro-ready and a solid Big 3 Scoring format target due to his big play potential. Nubin recorded 9 INTs and a 40% play-on-ball rate over his last two seasons with the Gophers. He’s a smart safety with honed instincts and speed to come in and be a day one contributor. I’m not getting swayed by his RAS. He’s made enough plays to convince me that he can play. He has uncanny timing, anticipation, and does a great job undercutting routes, which can mask those poor measurables.
These are the types of plays that may not show up in measurables:
He’s fluid and was utilized more in the pass rush in 2023. He had 13 pass-rush snaps and produced 5 pressures. He wins the jump ball and is explosive in run support.
He’s not a burner and his range could be exposed at the next level. But his on-field play should translate to the NFL. He’s got enough athleticism and football IQ to make an impact in any scheme as a deep or in-the-box safety.
6. Cooper DeJean, Iowa
My first corner here. He’s a versatile defender who can line up anywhere you ask him. He started as a special teamer in 2021 and then earned a starting role in 2022, appearing in 746 snaps. Mostly lining up outside, DeJean did play 140 snaps in the slot and 89 snaps in the box. He has good size at 6’1” and his football IQ allows him to see the whole field, communicating pre- and post-snap.
He seems to find a way to make plays and produced a 30% play-on-ball rate, resulting in 13 defended passes and 7 INTs. If the ball is near him, he’ll pounce. Although he has a good frame, he’s not fluid. He can be an impact player with his ball skills and can play anywhere on the field. I don’t think his late-season foot injury should hinder his draft stock. Defensive coordinators are going to love his football IQ.
The dude can play football.
7. James Williams, Miami
The first thing that stands out is his size. Safeties with his build and frame are rare. His RAS doesn’t stand out at the safety position, but when you see him on the field, he can play. For his size, he does have good speed. He explodes downhill and brings the pain when he makes a tackle. His IQ allows him to diagnose rapidly and be in position to make plays. His size gives him a wide catch radius to high-point the ball.
Here, he makes a play on the NC State QB, preventing a first down:
He also has the measurements to take on tight ends. Although he had a career 9.1% tackle rate, his production went up every year. He finished 2023 with a 10% tackle rate. His height may work against him when he needs to change direction and he can get confused with complex routes.
Wherever he’s drafted, there’s a good chance he gets converted to LB where he can play up in the box and make plays in the run or against tight ends. He’ll be a menace if he plays the slot. He’s a multifaceted safety that can be used to take advantage of matchups.
8. Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Mitchell will be a nice CB target in Big 3 Scoring where you’re getting 4 points for a defended pass and 6 points for an INT. Mitchell has an aggressive style and plus ball skills. He takes it personally when you target him. Coaches will love the fact he plays until the whistle. Mitchell produced a 30% play-on-ball rate that resulted in 45 defended passes and 6 INTs. QBs had a tough time completing passes against him, as he allowed a career 45.9% completion rate.
His straight-line speed will allow him to keep up with any receiver in man. Mitchell ran a 4.33 40-yard with above-average arm length. He’ll fly downhill in support. Mitchell gives QBs a false sense of security, as he has good recovery to get back into the play. He has a smooth backpedal and makes a break to the ball in an instant. Whether he makes the play or a tackle, he limits YAC.
To say he’s a ballhawk is an understatement:
His aggression can hinder him and he’ll stare down the QB. He’ll be asked to try and cause more turnovers. I think he’ll make an instant impact no matter his landing spot and a case can be made that he’s the CB1 in IDP rookie drafts.
9. Tykee Smith, Georgia
Smith transferred to Georgia from West Virginia and settled in as a slot/box safety. He produced an 11.1% tackle rate in 2023 and played 92% of his snaps on the LOS. He doesn’t miss many tackle attempts, as he missed 15 tackles in two full-time seasons at Georgia. He recorded 46 solo tackles and 8.5 TFLs during his senior season.
He takes precise angles and has excellent awareness of what’s going on around him. As Yoda would say, “Judge me by my size, do you?” as he plays more physically than his 5’11” frame would suggest.
He can change direction on a dime and closes in on the ball carrier or pass catcher:
He sometimes has trouble shedding contact but isn’t afraid of it. Quicker athletes can take him off the snap. He is bigger than most nickelbacks and has a good first step.
10. Daquan Evans, USF
Here’s a name to keep an eye on. Evans is a versatile DB who can play any position on the field. He played 95% of his snaps on the LOS, including 443 in the slot. Evans produced a 9.2% tackle rate and was a menace near the LOS with 14 TFLs. Last season, he added pass rushing to his arsenal. He generated a 21.7% pressure rate and finished with 4 sacks and 3 QB hits.
Here’s a sack he recorded in a game against Alabama:
Evans does his best near the ball thanks to his explosiveness to weave past blockers and disrupt plays in the backfield. He has the instincts and range to cover space in zone coverage.
Here, he makes a nice play on a screen pass:
Does he have a position in the NFL? I mean, the dude can play football and shows great IQ. He’s a bit undersized so there is an issue with durability if he continues to play like a heat-seeking missile. He’s a unique prospect. He’s an edge rusher in a DB body. I think a DC can develop him and take advantage of his versatility. I do think he’s landing spot-dependent, but I love the ability here.
Here are some DBs who barely missed the cut, but should be considered:
Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Arnold is a converted safety and one of the youngest prospects in the draft. According to PFF, he had as good a grade in the slot (75.9) as he did outside (82.6). Playing opposite Kool-Aid McKinstrey allowed him to see more targets. Arnold had a 27% play-on-ball rate on 64 targets, resulting in 12 defended passes, 5 INTs and a 53.1% completion rate for opposing QBs.
Calen Bullock, USC
Another young DB who is still developing. He’s a ballhawk with range and length. Bullock produced a 24% play-on-ball rate during his three seasons with USC, resulting in 15 defended passes and 9 INTs. He had a lower tackle rate than I’d like (7.4%), so I’m hoping where he lands, he’s put in a position to make tackles.
Kitan Oladapo, Oregon State
I love his tackle production, as he notched 223 tackles and a 10.1% tackle rate over three full-time seasons with Oregon State. He plays like an LB and has the frame to play both positions. His excellent size allows him to compete and run with tight ends and he’s comfortable playing at all areas of the field.
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