May ADP Update: 5 Overvalued & 5 Undervalued IDPs
May ADP Update: 5 Overvalued & 5 Undervalued IDPs
Mike digs through the ADP to see who's risen (and fallen) a little too far.
We’re at the end of May and there have been some ups and downs in the ADP already thanks to the NFL Draft. In this article, I’ll look at May’s risers and fallers to see who’s being overvalued and undervalued. We had 12 best ball drafts that finished before the NFL Draft and two drafts that have finished since then. We’ll be averaging the pre-draft ADP for these players and comparing it to the post-draft ADP average.
Without further ado, let’s dig into the ADP.
Undervalued IDPs
1. John Franklin-Myers, EDGE, Denver Broncos (DL 131, EDGE96)
Change: -86.2, from 257.8 to 344
JFM had a precipitous drop in ADP, going from 257.8 to 344 (nearly undrafted in our 31-round best ball drafts). I suppose most of you think the trade to Denver had a perceived negative impact on his playing time and potential in 2024.
I think it’s the opposite. Now’s the time to strike on JFM. Drew Sanders suffered an Achilles tear and looks to be out for the season. I’m not buying reports of him being back in October. I had Sanders projected as an edge rusher, so I do think JFM absorbs more snaps on the edge.
JFM had a 14% pressure rate in 2024 and was just unlucky. He was just a step or two away from adding multiple sacks and finished with 12 QB hits.
Denver has a crowded edge room, and while I think Jonathan Cooper gets close to a three-down role, I do think JFM gets the majority of the snaps opposite Cooper.
2. Justin Simmons, S, Free Agent (DB50, S34)
Change: -56.4, from 224.6 to 281
Look, I get it: Simmons doesn’t have a job yet. But still, a 23rd-round ADP in these post-NFL Draft best ball drafts is too late. I believe Simmons is going to get signed by a team in the coming weeks, so I have no problem drafting him near the tail end of drafts before he does sign (and the ADP shoots up).
Simmons is a perfect fit for a team ready to win the Super Bowl now. He’s a versatile safety who has all the tools to make plays no matter where he’s deployed. He has a career 28% play-on-ball rate that’s resulted in 30 INTs and 64 defended passes.
You’re getting a top-20 DB for free. Continue to take advantage.
3. Eric Kendricks, LB, Dallas Cowboys (LB32)
Change: -0.2, from 87.3 to 87.5
Eric Kendricks has been Mr. Consistent and is capable of producing ceiling weeks. Despite that, Kendricks has yet to see his ADP increase in a meaningful way (it stayed at 87). I have no problem taking a three-down LB in the 7th round or later.
Last season, Kendricks had 7 games of 8+ tackles and finished with a 13.8% tackle rate, resulting in 117 tackles. He missed two games and could have finished with 130+ tackles.
He’s going to have the field to himself at off-ball LB to make plays and should be clean behind Dallas’ defensive line to make tackles. He’s in line to wear the dot, so he should have a three-down role. He does have big play upside, as he’s averaged nearly 8 TFLs and 3 sacks over the last three seasons. He should be deployed on blitzes the same and he’s produced double-digit QB pressures in five-straight seasons.
I do think Kendricks is one of those glue guys who provides a safe floor and can hit those ceiling weeks. After Kendricks, it gets harder to find three-down guys.
4. Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Minnesota Vikings (LB38)
Change: -1.1, from 95.4 to 96.5
I try not to overreact to what I see at OTAs in May. Blake Cashman was seen wearing the dot, the role Ivan Pace Jr. had last season while Jordan Hicks was injured.
Pace entered his rookie year as a UDFA but made an impact in Brian Flores’ defense. He appeared in 64% of the snaps over his first four games. During his 6 games as a three-down LB, he averaged 9.5 tackles and recorded 2 sacks. At his size, Pace looked like a football player. Among rookie LBs who appeared in 100 or more snaps, he was the highest-graded defender with a 77.1 grade.
OTAs are typically a time to get players acclimated to new surroundings and cross-train roles. I think that’s what’s happening here. Pace already has familiarity with Flores’ defense and can communicate effectively.
Has Cashman shed the injury-prone narrative? He’s appeared in 30 games over the last two seasons after playing in just 14 total over his first three. Durability is the best ability, so Cashman has yet to prove that ability.
Take advantage of others’ over-reaction and take Pace at his 96 ADP.
5. Divine Deablo, LB, Las Vegas Raiders (LB48)
Change: +17, from 132.5 to 115.5
I still think Deablo is being undervalued heading into 2024 drafts. In 2023, Deablo missed 2 games but still appeared in over 700 snaps and produced a 13.6% tackle rate. His pace had him at about 120 tackles. Although Robert Spillane wore the dot, Deablo was the clear LB2 and had 10 games with more than an 80% usage rate.
I’m expecting Deablo to see over 80% of the snaps if he can stay healthy. The Raiders’ defense is LB-friendly and there are plenty of tackles to go around for both Spillane and Deablo. Deablo also had the highest blitz usage, as he was sent on 41 blitzes and produced 8 QB pressures.
Deablo has a safe floor as your LB3 and he had 9 games of more than 7 tackles. His ADP is low at 116 but it’s slowly rising. Cody Barton is being drafted ahead of Deablo and I’m taking Deablo 10 out of 10 times. Now’s the time to buy low on Deablo.
Overvalued IDPs
1. Nolan Smith, EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles (DL61, EDGE45)
Change: -8.8, from 108.2 to 117
I’m not sure I’m in on a Nolan Smith breakout this season. I still think he’s 4th in the pecking order and will continue to rotate snaps with Brandon Graham.
Smith is sitting with a post-draft ADP of 117 (9th round). I’m not sure I trust Smith that high and I’m still not taking him ahead of guys like Odafe Oweh, Will McDonald, or Leonard Floyd. Smith still needs development and refining entering his second year. In 96 pass-rush snaps as a rookie, Smith generated a 9.4% pressure rate and a 7.1% win rate. As a 35-year-old, Graham still managed a 29.5% win rate.
Smith had a slightly better second half when he generated 7 of his 9 QB pressures. However, I’m not spending a top-50 EDGE pick on a guy who’s at the bottom of a 4-man rotation.
2. Carl Granderson, EDGE, New Orleans Saints (DL29, EDGE25)
Change: -1, from 41.5 to 42.5
I’m a Granderson fan, but I’m not sure I’m buying him at his ceiling. Granderson had a career-high 8.5 sacks, but does he have double-digit sack potential?
Not only did Granderson hit a career-high in sacks, but also tackles (78). He appeared in 874 snaps and was deployed on 522 pass-rush snaps, which doubled his volume from previous seasons. His role or usage isn’t changing from last season, which is why I think we’ve seen his ceiling.
In the last month, he’s been holding steady around 42 overall (41.5 to 42.5). I’d much rather take chances on guys who have yet to hit their ceiling or even a high-upside rookie. I think someone like Greg Rousseau and Dallas Turner are good candidates. Rousseau has an ADP of 70 while Turner’s is 68.
3. Chase Young, EDGE, New Orleans Saints (DL72, EDGE54)
Change: -32.8, from 128.7 to 161.5
While my level of disdain for Young as an IDP fantasy asset isn’t on the same level as Bret Hart’s hatred for Goldberg, it’s close. Young is someone I’ll usually never consider drafting on my fantasy team.
Young matched his career-high in sacks over two teams (7.5). He was on pace to set a career-high, as he recorded 5 sacks over 7 games with Washington. However, Chase Young remembered he was Chase Young and recorded 2.5 sacks over the last 9 games with San Francisco. He also produced 2 fewer pressures over 326 pass-rush snaps.
There isn’t much incentive to produce in New Orleans, as his contract is guaranteed as long as he appears in 17 games. So, will he make business decisions to try and not get hurt? Young has been dropping, but he’s still way overvalued in the 13th round. I’d much rather draft guys like DeMarcus Lawrence, Preston Smith, or Odafe Oweh.
4. Devin White, LB, Philadelphia Eagles (LB25)
Change: -18.8, from 73.2 to 92
I know I like my three-down linebackers, but I still need efficiency and a ceiling — two attributes that are on the decline for Devin White.
After a down year in 2023, White signed a one-year deal with the Eagles. White ended up losing his play-calling role to Lavonte David and even lost snaps to KJ Britt. White played in 14 games and appeared in 894 snaps.
White produced a 9.3% tackle rate and recorded his fewest number of sacks since his rookie year (2.5). In a contract year, White posted career lows across the board.
White’s ADP slid to 92 post-draft and I’m still passing on him at that spot. I don’t like the sudden decline in production and his unknown role and usage in Philadelphia. They didn’t spend a lot of free agent capital, so he doesn’t have much of a leash.
5. Cooper DeJean, CB, Philadelphia Eagles (DB9, CB3)
Change: N/A (wasn’t drafted before the NFL Draft)
I like Cooper DeJean as a prospect, but I’m not sure what kind of impact he’ll have in IDP leagues as a rookie.
I’m sure I’ll be catching some crap in the hallowed Slack halls of The IDP Show by placing DeJean as an overvalued IDP (editor’s note: he did). The Eagles have a crowded defensive back room and Avonte Maddox is the incumbent slot corner.
The question is, where do the snaps come from? I could see DeJean and Maddox splitting snaps at the slot. The Eagles have outside corners Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell. If the Eagles plan on playing DeJean everywhere, this has Isaiah Simmons written all over it. If you have multiple positions, you have none.
I’m a bit lower than most on DeJean this season, as of now, I’ve got him projected at just over 330 snaps. If he plays all 17 games, that’s around 20 per game. With the depth the Eagles have, they don’t have to rush him.
Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube.