May 2026 ADP Update: 5 Overvalued & Undervalued IDPs
Mike Woellert covers which defenders are being drafted too early — and which bargains could swing your league.
We’re almost in June, and drafts are starting. We’re beginning to see some interesting ADP and how drafters are valuing defenders this year.
There were a few double-takes that made me raise my eyebrow like The Rock.
In this first pass of ADP, here’s who I think is being over-valued and under-valued as we head into the summer.
Overvalued
ED T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 6.0 (ED5)
I will not have any Watt this season, and I think the decline is beginning. He’s dealt with various injuries over the last few seasons. While he played all 17 games in 2023-24, he missed three last season, and, most importantly, his pressure metrics have been declining.
He’s two years removed from generating a 15.6% pressure in 2023, but over his last two seasons, he’s barely registered 10%. Over the last two, he’s produced a 9.7% pressure rate; however, he’s still converting at 17%. But as pressure eases, the pressure-to-sack conversion is tough to sustain; it dipped to 15.3% in 2025.
His win rate has also dipped below elite; last year, he posted a 15.7% win rate despite a 0.87-second pass-rush burst.
I’m not buying Watt at a top-5 EDGE price with all these red flags waving in my face.
ED Abdul Carter, New York Giants
ADP: 12.8 (ED10)
All of you are ready to crown Abdul Carter as a top-10 EDGE, and while I’m here for a potential breakout year, I’m not ready to pay a premium.
Carter’s pressure rate was just below the elite level at 13%; however, he really picked up momentum and burst through the rookie wall, generating a 19.7% pressure rate over the last 5 games while producing a 12.5% conversion rate. I mean, he did produce 3.5 sacks over those five weeks of the season, so his owners certainly aren’t complaining.
However, you’re drafting Carter among the elite, and I get it, you’re buying the upside and ceiling. Not sure I’m ready to crown him and take him over someone like Danielle Hunter (same ADP) or Jared Verse.
His underlying metrics and 84.5 PFF pass rush grade certainly indicate a breakout on the horizon, but I'm not sure I’m going to pay the price.
ED Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 19.0 (ED15)
Andrew Van Ginkel is coming off his first injury-plagued season and missed five games, which led to his lowest pass rush snaps since 2022 (173).
Van Ginkel’s production and fantasy points have been boosted from big plays, which, for me, are unsustainable to rely on. In 2024, Van Ginkel had two interceptions, both of which were returned for scores. He finished with a 5.4% big play rate. Last season, before injury, he was 6.5%, thanks to a career-high 10 defended passes.
I also think his pressure-to-sack conversion rate is due for regression. Over the last two seasons, he’s converted 17.5% of his pressures to sacks.
I’ll wait a few picks for Dallas Turner, or even another round for Laiatu Latu.
ED Micah Parsons, Green Bay Packers (ADP 8.3; EDGE8)
ADP: 8.3 (ED8)
I love Micah Parsons and everything he brings to a defense. But how many games will that be in 2026?
Word around the Green Bay locker room is that he could land on the PUP list ahead of training camp, and it’s expected that he could miss the start of the season.
Parsons tore his ACL in mid-December, so these late-season ACL injuries are usually no bueno, no matter how hard someone works in their rehab. Parsons had the surgery a few weeks after he suffered the injury.
I don’t want my DL1 to miss any games, let alone a quarter of the season. There’s no doubt his metrics are elite, but how much rust will there be once he returns?
I can’t go Parsons over someone like Nik Bonitto or Jared Verse.
LB Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 19.6 (LB3)
I love Fred Warner and everything he does on defense. He’s one of the best off-ball linebackers in the NFL, and his absence was noticeable.
From a fantasy standpoint, he’s finished among the top-10 twice in the last four seasons, but has never finished among the elite (top-3). Now, he was on his way to one of his better fantasy seasons as he was the LB6 through the first five weeks.
He has been a consistent tackler, producing 130+ tackles over four straight seasons until last season, with a career tackle rate of 12.9%.
He’s coming off a severe leg injury, and even though he was ready to go in the playoffs, we’ll still need to see how he responds once the season starts. He’s being drafted among the top 20 IDPs and is the LB3. I love Warner, and if I miss out on him at that price, I’m good with Blake Cashman, Roquan Smith, or Nick Bolton as my LB1.
Undervalued
ED Jaelan Phillips, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 40.2 (ED21)
The Panthers are building a strong front four. They added Jaelan Phillips to go along with up-and-comer Nic Scourton and Derrick Brown.
Phillips’ pressure metrics with both Miami and Philadelphia were elite, generating a 17.7% pressure rate and 24.8% win rate between the two stops. The pressure-to-sack conversion wasn’t great (6.6%), but he’s due for some positive regression in that category.
Vic Fangio’s scheme allowed him to generate pressure; he just didn’t finish. Phillips should benefit from simulated pressure and more one-on-ones, and he himself said he needs to work on finishing, turning disruption into production.
I think Phillips has double-digit sack upside and is a strong value as the EDGE21.
LB Patrick Queen, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 86.0 (LB37)
Call me crazy, but I think Patrick Queen is in for a career year in tackles.
After seeing what Patrick Graham’s defense did for Devin White last season, that’s now the same scheme Queen operates in. Queen and White are similar off-ball LBs; they struggle in coverage and run defense but will benefit from volume.
Graham’s scheme will create holes and gaps for his linebackers to attack and make tackles. Here’s one such play from last season on a tackle made by Devin White:
White also finished with his highest TFL output since 2020 with 11. Queen’s career-high in tackles is 133 in 2023, and I think that’s achievable. I’m higher on Queen, I’d imagine, than the consensus, as I have him as my LB12. He has a career 11.3% tackle rate, but if he can nudge that up to 12%-13%, he’ll achieve those tackle numbers.
S Chamarri Conner, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 171.1 (S29)
Apparently, 2026 IDP drafters have no confidence in Chamarri Conner.
I don’t think his production was a fluke, and over 50% of his tackle production came from the line of scrimmage. Conner played 83% of his snaps near the line and had a 40% box rate.
Conner was an efficient tackler, and even if his deep tackles decline, he’s in a position to make tackles from anywhere on the field, evidenced by his 11.4% tackle rate. An elite number for a defensive back.
Now, would more big plays help strengthen the argument? Sure. His big play rate was just 1.6%.
That being said, Conner finished as the DB15 in Big-3 scoring, and he’s currently being drafted as the DB29. I don’t anticipate Conner’s role and usage changing, so if I can get him as a DB3/4, and he can return DB2 value, sign me up for that.
ED Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 53.1 (ED26)
I think Gregory Rousseau is going to thrive in Jim Leonhard’s defense.
Leonhard is emphasizing aggressiveness up front and making an impact in the opposition’s backfield.
Rousseau has the length and versatility to excel in the scheme, as he can play with his hand in the dirt or stand up in their base. He might be asked to drop into coverage occasionally; his primary responsibility will be to get to the QB. Rousseau revealed he played through injuries, including a knee issue in 2025.
It still didn’t hinder him from finishing as their best defensive player, and he was a force over the last three weeks of the regular season and playoffs, generating a 19.9% pressure rate with 9 QB hits and 5 sacks. He also produced a 22.6% win rate. He seemed to play better as he got healthier.
He’ll need to improve his 11.1% pressure-to-sack rate, and he was a step or two away from a sack, as he had 18 QB hits. Hopefully, he’ll improve his finishing off his pressures.
I like the value I’m getting at his current ADP.
ED Chop Robinson, Miami Dolphins
ADP: 77.5 (ED36)
I’m buying the dip on Chop Robinson. He’s not as bad as he was in 2025, and I think a combination of injuries and scheme might have hindered him a bit.
The Dolphins released Bradley Chubb in March, and they’re sending a strong message: they believe he’s the guy from his rookie year.
Robinson generated a 16.3% pressure rate and 23.8% win rate as a rookie, so it was quite a disappointment when those numbers fell off a cliff, finishing with a 7.9% pressure rate. However, 68% of his total pressures came from Week 8 onward, improving his pressure rate to 8.8%, including 11.8% in true pass sets, eliminating throwaways, play action, and quick throws.
I think Sean Duggan is going to scheme pressure for him from a wide alignment as a speed rusher. The scheme should create open rush lanes and isolate him one-on-one with the tackles.
I like the value here, as you’re getting a potential DL2 at a DL4/5 price.
Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube.
You can follow us on all our social media channels, including Twitter and Instagram.
 | A guest post by
|