June ADP Update: Keep/Trade/Cut
Mike looks at the updated ADP to keep, trade, and cut similarly drafted IDPs.
Cheesy game show music begins playing…
Hello ladies and gentlemen! Welcome to everyone’s favorite IDP game show: Keep/Trade/Cut! (*crowd goes wild*) As a reminder, all the rules are made up and the points don’t matter. I’m your host for today, Mike Woellert.
In this installment, we’re going to look at the ADP after a June filled with drafts and find clusters of IDPs who are being drafted around each other in order to decide who we should keep, trade, and cut. Without further ado, let’s get to it!
Keep: Divine Deablo (130.4)
Trade: Dre Greenlaw (162.9)
Cut: Jamin Davis (148.5)
These linebackers are heading into July with very similar ADPs and all have different circumstances surrounding their situations.
I’m keeping Divine Deablo. You’re acquiring an LB who’ll have a full-time role. Deablo got hurt in Week 7, which limited him to 25% of the snaps, but in his first seven games, he appeared in at least 85% of the snaps in 5 games and recorded at least 7 tackles, producing a 14.7% tackle rate. Overall, he finished with 106 tackles and a 13.7% tackle rate. He’s a consistent producer and will be LB2 behind Robert Spillane.
If you have a leaguemate who thinks Dre Greenlaw is bionic and is going to play a full season, trade him. I can’t believe Greenlaw’s ADP is within the top 125. He suffered an Achilles’ tear in the Super Bowl and his status for the season is uncertain at best. I’m not touching Greenlaw at his current ADP and I’d be looking to unload him to a leaguemate bullish on his status.
I’m cutting ties on Jamin Davis. He’s had a tumultuous offseason with the Commanders declining his fifth-year option and adding Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, which didn’t help matters. Davis is saying the right things and he’s loving the system Dan Quinn is installing. It doesn’t matter. His snaps are going to be limited in the defense. Quinn rarely deploys more than two linebackers on the field.
Keep: Montez Sweat (19.2)
Trade: Trey Hendrickson (19.5)
Cut: Haason Reddick (20.5)
All of these edge rushers have been productive and I imagine opinions will be split.
I’m keeping Montez Sweat, who’s been a consistent producer over the last few years and enjoyed his first season of 10+ sacks. Sweat recorded 12.5 sacks over two teams. Sweat recorded an additional 37 pressures over 279 pass-rush snaps with the Bears and improved his efficiency from 11.2% to 13.3%. I wish Sweat had a complementary rusher to take some of the attention off him; however, the Bears are counting on Demarcus Walker to be that guy. Sweat is more than capable of taking a game over and he had a nice stretch of weeks where he recorded a sack in four consecutive games. Sweat is a good target in the second round if you go LB with your first pick, or your EDGE2 if you decide to stack the position with your first two picks.
Trey Hendrickson went through a period of apathy with the Bengals and requested a trade. As of now, he’s focused on the team and is being a good soldier. I do think Hendrickson is underrated, but I also think he’s someone I’d trade right now. In the three seasons since joining the Bengals, he’s recorded 70+ pressures which has resulted in a 16.2% pressure rate. I guess the question surrounding Trey is his heart. Will he go all out for a team that doesn’t seem interested in taking care of him?
Haason Reddick seems more interested in cosplaying in Japan than showing up to any Jets-related meetings or minicamp. The Jets acquired Reddick after losing Bryce Huff to free agency, but did they anticipate this attitude? Although going from a perennial contender to a dysfunctional team like the Jets, I get it. (Yes, being a Browns fan, I am fully aware of the irony here.) As of now, you have to be concerned with Reddick’s status and if he’ll be a holdout. Is it an overreaction? Possibly. He’s already forfeited $250K in workout bonuses and has a non-guaranteed $14.25 million salary for 2024.
Keep: Kyzir White (90.6)
Trade: Trenton Simpson (81.3)
Cut: Blake Cashman (83.9)
Kyzir White might be my favorite LB value. He was overlooked at the beginning of draft season, but the ADP has caught up. He’s now being drafted among the top 75 IDPs. In his first season as a three-down LB, he averaged just over 8 tackles/game, while adding 2 sacks and 9 TFLs. He was on pace for 140 tackles, which would have been his second season of 140+ stops in three seasons. If you’re adopting a zero-LB approach to your draft, White is an LB1 who can be drafted in the 5th/6th round.
I think Trenton Simpson is on the verge of a breakout season, but if you can sell high and get a haul to improve an area of weakness, or to build for the future, I’d accept that deal. His value might not get any higher unless he goes off for 160 tackles this season. (Which is in his range of outcomes.) Now don’t trade him just for the sake of trading him. He’s a solid trade chip in your back pocket — use it wisely.
One of the key situations to monitor this offseason is who’ll call the plays in Minnesota: Ivan Pace Jr. or Blake Cashman. It might be dangerous, but I’m going KGB in Rounders and going all in in hopes I’m not facing the nut straight. Blake Cashman signed with the Vikings during free agency. Pace already has experience calling plays in Brian Flores’ defense, so I think he’ll have the leg up. Cashman has dealt with various ailments throughout his career. He missed 3 games in 2024 which resulted in a part-time role to finish the season. Flores typically deploys one off-ball LB in his defense, so the LB2 will lose some value.
Keep: EJ Speed (92.2)
Trade: Junior Colson (96.5)
Cut: Matt Milano (98.2)
This is an interesting group of linebackers in this range.
EJ Speed enjoyed a career year in 2023 despite playing just 66% of the snaps. I’m pretty bullish on him heading into 2024. When you look at his playing time, he became a full-time LB in Week 11 and produced 60% of his tackles in the final six weeks of the season, resulting in 61 tackles and a 16.4% tackle rate. Those are elite numbers. Speed is locked in as the LB2 opposite Zaire Franklin and I’ve got him projected at 924 snaps.
I’m as big a fan of Junior Colson as the next guy, but I’m definitely capitalizing on his name and hype and fielding trade offers. As much as I love the landing spot and production potential, he’s yet to play a down of NFL football and we’ve seen how these young linebackers are eased into the league and given minimal responsibilities so as to not overload their plate.
Matt Milano is coming off a tibia fracture and is a potential cut candidate. He’s appeared in minicamp and all signs are pointing to full health at training camp. If the Bills need cap space, it could save them $10 million. Aside from health, he’s been a mid-tier IDP producer. He’s now five seasons removed from his lone 100-tackle season. He’ll throw in a few sacks and has upside for double-digit TFLs (if your league scores for those), but that’s about it. At Milano’s ADP, I’m more interested in guys like Germaine Pratt and Kenneth Murray, or a high upside big play producer like Devon Witherspoon or Tuli Tuipulotu.
Keep: Kyle Dugger (156.9)
Trade: Kamren Curl (163.5)
Cut: Jeremy Chinn (158)
Kyle Dugger will always have a spot on my team. I’m not worried at all about his usage with new head coach Jerod Mayo, who’s been a coach since 2019 (linebackers). He’s seen what Dugger can do and he knows he has a weapon. He has 9 INTs and 20 defended passes over the last three seasons while also producing a career-high in tackles (109) with a near 2:1 solo-to-assist ratio (1.86). Dugger played 58% of his snaps in the box/slot and saw 98 additional snaps on the LOS as an edge and outside corner.
I love the potential of Kamren Curl with the Rams, but it’s a new environment and his role has yet to be defined. DB is the most replaceable position in IDP, so if you can find someone weak at the position, I wouldn’t mind selling high on Curl. He was the DB8 in tackle-heavy formats and has 88+ tackles in three of his last four seasons. Although he hasn’t recorded an INT since 2020, I have a feeling that will change this year. He also has 14 defended passes in four seasons. I think he’s a good sell-high candidate to address a position of weakness.
I like Jeremy Chinn’s change of scenery; however, he is playing behind a talented defense front. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen are cloggers. Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner are tackle machines, which may impact Chinn’s tackle opportunities. If you’re making roster decisions, he’s probably near the bottom of your roster and he probably didn’t cost too much from an ADP standpoint.
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