July ADP Update: Biggest Risers and Fallers
Mike examines the biggest post-draft ADP movers to find value in IDP drafts.
In the blink of an eye, it’ll be August, which means draft season is upon us. Since the NFL Draft, we’ve seen some ADP movement among IDPs that caught our attention. In this article, I’ll look at the biggest rises and declines among IDPs and how you should approach these players in drafts. Are we buying the dip? Fading the hype?
Let’s get into it.
Biggest Risers
Jack Gibbens, LB, Tennessee Titans
Up 32.1 spots (ADP: 209.3)
I’d buy Jack Gibbens now while his price is still low. I’d rather be proactive on Gibbens than reactive. He’s still a great value at his current ADP.
I think Gibbens is picking up steam as the potential wearer of the green dot for Tennessee’s defense. It’s still far from decided, but this battle could be this year’s Buffalo Bills dot situation.
Gibbens enters his third year after a solid 2023 season. Gibbens recorded 95 tackles over 14 games and produced a 15.1% tackle rate.
I know Tennessee brought in Kenneth Murray and drafted Cedric Gray, but Gibbens is an incumbent on the defense and has been called a “green dot” guy because of his communication and leadership. His ADP rose 32 spots to 209.3, so he’s still a solid late-round value. It does appear as if the movement is warranted.
Kyzir White, LB, Arizona Cardinals
Up 26.7 spots (ADP: 69.2)
White’s ADP is finally catching up to his role.
White is returning from a biceps injury and it looks like he’s on the practice field at the beginning of camp. I was buying White even before the health news and was projecting him as a full-time LB, wearing the dot.
White averaged 8.1 tackles/game and produced a 12.8% tackle rate. Before the injury, White was on pace for 140 tackles.
White appears to be 100% heading into the season and White’s ADP has jumped from 95.9 to 65.2. The rise makes sense, but he’s slowly starting to lose his bargain value. I’m still buying, however. His running mate, Mack Wilson, is also gaining steam as the LB2 and someone to draft late. His ADP rose from 263 to 212. Wilson is a still solid value if he earns a full-time role and sees 80% of the snaps.
Xavier McKinney, S, Green Bay Packers
Up 56.7 spots (ADP: 108.3)
I’m still baffled at McKinney’s initial ADP. He was one of the top-scoring DBs. He recorded a career-high 116 tackles and had the most INTs (3) since 2021 (5). McKinney recorded a 10.3% tackle rate and played 56% of his snaps on the line of scrimmage.
I think he’ll have a similar role in Green Bay, and I think they’ll utilize his playmaking abilities. Coach LaFleur is already seeing his impact in a short time.
He looks to have a three-down role and is emerging as a locker room leader. His ADP has risen from 165 to 108.3, which makes sense considering his role in the defense and his ability to produce solid IDP numbers.
Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Atlanta Falcons
Up 39.2 spots (ADP: 135.7)
Arnold Ebiketie had a solid second season and put together encouraging pass-rush metrics in a part-time role.
Ebiketie recorded 4.5 sacks from Week 8 and finished with a 16% pressure rate. Although his win rate was less than 14%, he was still able to generate consistent pressure even when garnering the attention of opposing offensive lines.
Ebiketie looks to take on more responsibilities heading into his third season and that means more snaps. His rise in ADP shows drafters are catching up to his role. His ADP rose from 174.9 to 135.7. I think he’s still a value as a DL3/4.
Biggest Fallers
Devin White, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Down 24 spots (ADP: 93.3)
If you’re now drafting, it’s time to buy Devin White low. I know he’s been one of my fades, but like the Big Lebowski and his search for Bunny Lebowski, new information has come to light.
Devin White has emerged as the three-down LB for the defense and wearer of the green dot. At this point, he’s all but assured of a three-down role. I know White finished 2023 on a downslide and an inefficient tackle rate, but he has new life in Philly and will look to take advantage of his new scenery.
He’s playing behind Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, who should be able to plug gaps and allow White to roam clean to make tackles. Nicholas Morrow and Zach Cunningham were able to produce tackle rates above 11%, which is right around my projection.
White’s ADP dipped from 69.2 to 93.3. As the stock bros say, “Buy the dip!!!”
Nick Bolton, LB, Kansas City Chiefs
Down 12.2 spots (ADP: 29.3)
Bolton is entering a contract year and is going to have to pick up the slack thanks to the loss of some key veterans, especially Willie Gay.
Bolton looks to enter the 2024 season healthy and I’ve got him projected as an LB1. He missed 9 games during the 2023 season after missing just one game throughout his first two seasons.
Over 8 games, Bolton recorded a 13.5% tackle rate and was on pace for 127 tackles. A far cry from his 180 tackle season in 2022, but it would have been his third consecutive 110+ tackle season.
Bolton should resume his role as the playcaller of the defense and I’ve got him projected at 150+ tackles. His July ADP dipped from 17.1 to 29.3. I’d be doing cartwheels if I’m able to get an elite tackler as my LB2.
Tuli Tuipulotu, EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers
Down 21.5 spots (ADP: 100.7)
Why are people passing on Tuipulotu?
I’m a big fan of Tuli heading into his second season after a promising rookie year. He finished with 4.5 sacks and started 11 games. He generated a respectable 11.5% pressure rate and added 7 QB hits to his sacks.
The Chargers still have Khalil Mack, who’s entering his age 33 season, and Joey Bosa who has played in a total of 14 games over the last two seasons. Are we trusting Bosa for a full 17-game season?
I think Jesse Minter is going to enjoy deploying this edge rusher to wreak havoc on opposing QBs.
Tuli Tuipulotu saw a dip in July from 79.2 to 100.7. He’s a high-upside DL/EDGE3. I don’t know why he’s falling, but take advantage of the decline.
Rashan Gary, EDGE, Green Bay Packers
Down 8 spots (ADP: 39.9)
Rashan Gary looked to get better as the season progressed. It was his first season post-torn ACL. He started regaining his explosiveness on his way to finishing with a 15% pressure rate and a 20.3% win rate. He’d finish with 9 sacks and 13 QB hits. There’s a lot to like about Gary heading into the 2024 season.
He’s fully recovered from his torn ACL and the Packers are moving to a base 43 defense. In some instances, the base defense doesn’t matter, but in the case of Gary, he seems to do better with his hand in the dirt, as opposed to rushing as an outside linebacker.
He’s already looking dominant in the short time he’s been in camp. Jeff Hafley is going to allow him to pin his ears back and go get the QB. Gary’s ADP has taken an undeserved dip from 31.9 to 39.9, so take advantage right now. It would not surprise me to see him hit the 10-sack mark this season.
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