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IDP Start/Sit: Week 9
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 9.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
In Week 8, we had every team playing again and lots of options. We looked good and the efficiencies checked out for our starts. For our sits, the process didn’t check out for Holcomb and Grant. But holy cow, Bryce Huff needs to get a bit more run because this man is on fire this year. Might be worth a stash on your dynasty roster if he is available and you have the spot.
Week 8 Recap
Start: Bryce Huff (2 solos, 3 assists, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍 - Only on 37% snaps!?!
Sit: Jonathan Allen (1 assist, 2 QB hits) 👍
Start: Denzel Perryman (6 solos, 3 assists, TFL, QB hit, 0.5 sacks) 👍 - On only 48% of snaps!?!
Sit: Cole Holcomb (7 solos, 4 assists, FR) 👎
Start: Jamal Adams (5 solos, 3 assists, TFL, PD) 👍
Sit: Richie Grant (6 solos, 3 assists, PD) 👎
Week 9 Starts & Sits
START: Jadeveon Clowney, Baltimore Ravens, DL46 (ED35)
Clowney has had a bit of a career flip here in his season with the Ravens. A defender once known for his strength in run defense and ability to make tackle plays in the backfield is now really showing some chops as a pass rusher. He is pacing out for 72+ pressures this season, his best since 64 in 2017. But he is going to do this on 200 fewer snaps. His efficiency is up and he is delivering strong pass-rush metrics in other spots, too. He is top 25 in the NFL in terms of his win rate at 22.8% this season.
The one downside to Clowney’s season is his tackle floor has dropped to its lowest of his career as he is pacing out to have 29 total tackles this season. This week, Clowney gets the Seahawks whose offensive line has been a line that has allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season. This is one of the bottoms in terms of pressures allowed but only 11% sack conversion, one of the better marks this season. So for Clowney, he has been successful in creating pressures and should realize that this week, but his ability to convert a sack is good enough that he will have success this week, too, making him a viable starting option this week.
SIT: Jonathan Greenard, Houston Texans, DL27 (ED21)
Jonathan Greenard had an amazing week last week with 7 pressures and 3 sacks against the Panthers! He has delivered some solid metrics to go along with these recent eye-popping stats. He has a 19.1% win rate in pass rush sets and an 11% pash rush pressure rate. However, he has overproduced a bit on his sack production, where I would expect to see him closer to 3.5 sacks vs. the 7 he has.
The potential negative regression in his sack production while coming into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, has me a little concerned about Greenard being a strong play this week. Tampa has the third-lowest pressure rate allowed and the third-lowest sack conversion rate, too.
START: Blake Cashman, Houston Texans, LB26
Blake Cashman has been absolute money once stepping into the full-time role in this Demeco Ryans’ Houston Texans defense. Since getting the full-time role he has delivered a solid 13.42% tackle efficiency. The real kicker on top of that is the splash play he has added to that strong tackle floor. 6 TFLs, 3 QB hits, 1 sack, and 2 PDs.
With the strong tackle production and the addition of the big play upside, Bashman is firmly cemented as an LB2. This week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it is a bottom-half matchup scoring-wise, but Cashman is the primary LB in this offense has the best likelihood of absorbing the bulk of the LB scoring this week.
SIT: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB29
It pains me to say to sit Kaden Elliss, he was a flag plant of mine and someone I was very excited about this season. Now, he hasn’t been a complete bust by any stretch of the imagination either. He is wearing the green dot for the Falcons and he is seeing nearly 100% of all snaps this season. However, his tackle efficiency is below average at 10.9%. While this is not ideal, we can normally work with this when there is upside in other aspects of their game. And with Kaden Elliss with thought we might have that with his pass-rush upside from his time with the Saints and his DC Ryan Nielsen.
Elliss is actually on pace to surpass his pass rush opportunities from last year by 21 chances while playing well over 400 snaps more than last year. This lower ceiling, plus a matchup against rookie QB Jaren Hall and the Vikings, with an offense that is not likely to be very efficient in the first week after this big change, means I am expecting a lower set of opportunities for Elliss this week.
START: Trent McDuffie, Kansas City Chiefs, DB45 (CB12)
Trent McDuffie was someone I was very excited about this off-season. The belief was, he would be utilized in the slot defender role that made L’Jarius Sneed so valuable last season. Now, he has been used there primarily, just not exclusively. The other big piece to that was the pass-rush opportunities from that slot defender position proved to be highly valuable for Sneed while in that role. So why McDuffie this week?
First, he has a solid tackle floor of 5.25 tackles per game, and for a DB that is average to above average, but very good for CBs. Pair that with the pass rush opportunities (3.5 per game) and that McDuffie is producing pressures and QB hits, but just hasn’t converted yet, he is due for some positive regression.
Also, the Dolphins offense thrives in first reads and timing, and Spagnuolo can get Tua off his spot with some well-timed blitzes from McDuffie. Finally, the sugar on top, their outside zone scheme should help boost the tackle floor a little bit as well when McDuffie is in that slot defender alignment.
SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB39 (S30)
Trevon Moehrig had a wonderful week 8 with 10 total tackles for our IDP lineups. It did not hurt that he also had played all 86 snaps in that game! But that is still a very good 11.1% tackle efficiency, which we would be more than happy to have from a DB. He has also back-to-back weeks of 30 box snaps as well.
These are both positive things for IDP production, however, before this week, his tackle efficiency sat at 7.5%, a good step below average tackle efficiency for DBs. In a matchup against a struggling New York Giants offense (especially if Daniel Jones sits), I would expect limited upside from most Raiders IDPs, but especially those that play further off the line, like Moehrig.
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