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IDP Start/Sit: Week 7
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 7.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
It was not a great Week 6, but just like teams dealing with all kinds of injuries, we need to press on and find the right guy this week and make our teams better for it! And we might want to even consider where we are going to be next week when we get hit with a ton of teams on their bye week as well.
Week 6 Recap
Start: Grady Jarrett (1 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits) 👍
Sit: Jonathon Cooper (1 sack, 3 solos, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 PD) 👎
Start: Tyrel Dodson (2 solos, 5% of snaps) 👎 - This is clearly Dorian Williams’ job
Sit: Frankie Luvu (5 solos, 4 assists, TFL) 👎
Start: Devon Witherspoon (4 solos, 3 PD) 👍
Sit: Marcus Maye (2 solos, 2 assists) 👍
Week 7 Starts & Sits
START: Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants, DL45 (DT09)
Dexter Lawrence has an amazing 2022 campaign, for the NFL and IDP. Career highs in snaps, pressures, sacks, hits, tackles, you name it. His start to 2023 has not been nearly as productive with 0 sacks so far through 6 games. The nice thing is, his underlying metrics are in line or better than his 2022 season. His pass-rush pressure rate is up about 1.5% to 13.7% and his tackle efficiency is up 0.5% to 7.7%. And his win rate is up 2% to 27% as well. However, this just hasn’t delivered results for IDP quite well yet.
Now enter the Washington Commanders. In their last game against one of the league’s worst pass rushes (over the last several years), they still allowed 11 pressures and 5 sacks on Howell’s 29 dropbacks. I can’t imagine a better way for someone to deliver a sack than to get the Commanders. Lawrence will continue his dominance, but I think he also maximizes that with at least a sack this week.
SIT: Leonard Floyd, Buffalo Bills, DL25 (ED19)
Leonard Floyd has been a great addition to the Buffalo Bills defensive front with the absence of Von Miller. Floyd has delivered some great weeks already for IDP with 7 total sacks through 6 games. The floor is a bit limited for Buffalo Bills pass rushers as they rotate pretty consistently and this shows with his 7 total tackles as well. Their matchup against the Patriots is a fairly average one for pass rushers. But the thing we are looking at here is a pass rusher who has an average win rate of 12.3%, and a solid 11.8% pass rush pressure rate. But he has also greatly over-produced with his 7 sacks on 16 pressures. On average, we would expect to see 2.5 sacks from that level of pressure created. So with a lower floor for his play, some likely negative regression in terms of his sack production, and an average matchup, Floyd is a fade for me this week.
START: Dorian Williams, Buffalo Bills, LB34
Dorian Williams looked like he might be on a short leash or even on his way to the dog house in week 5 after stepping in for the injured Matt Milano. Williams played first but was pulled in favor of Tyrel Dodson who finished up the game. However, it seems a week of practice and planning has gone a long week to help Dorian. His PFF grades looked better this week and he delivered a much better IDP performance, too.
His 9 tackles on 65 snaps was a great start to his first game as a starter. This week he gets the New England Patriots which seems to have focused more on utilizing their running backs in Elliott and Stevenson last week. Their increased utilization means increased opportunities for the Bills’ LBs. Dorian is looking like a strong start weekly for us moving forward with this role in his hands.
SIT: Eric Kendricks, Los Angeles Chargers, LB35
Eric Kendricks may have lost his 3-down role with his most recent absence due to his injuries. In his return, with seemingly no limitations, Eric Kendricks was at 68% snaps in week 4 and saw that increase in week 5, but it was still limited to 83% while Kenneth Murray was at 100% of snaps. His tackle efficiency is at 11.2%, which is slightly below league-average, but not terrible. However, when you compare below-average production (even if slightly) with reduced utilization, it is a recipe to under-deliver for IDP value.
Kansas City does present more opportunities for opposing defenses with its total plays ran, however, the Chargers are an above-average offense as well, which means fewer overall opportunities for the Chiefs' offense, too. I don’t believe this to be as much of a plus matchup for Chargers’ linebackers and all that wrapped up together, I am not in on Kendricks as a top 36 LB this week.
START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB30 (S27)
Grant Delpit has had a strong year for IDP so far. He has averaged 5.5 tackles, has 2 PDs, FR, and 1 INT. He has done a little of everything and has a strong tackle floor as well: 4 out of his 5 games he has hit at least 5 tackles. The one game he didn’t and only recorded 2 tackles? He played his season-low snaps in the box. So why do we like Delpit this week? Besides his normal usage in the box alignment, the Jaguars have shown us in two matchups this season that to slow down the Colts offense, you use a base alignment with a box-heavy front. With Delpit’s experience and capability and how Jim Schwartz has historically run his defenses, I think it is safe to believe we will some of Delpit’s best usage there. Pair that with his proven success already, I believe this will be a great week for Delpit’s production, especially his tackle production.
SIT: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB21 (S21)
Ford has been a regular contributor for IDP relevance this year for the Green Bay Packers. 37 tackles on his 351 snaps, for a strong 10.54% tackle efficiency. He also has a pair of passes defensed and an interception. So why would we want to take someone with this level of production out of our lineup? Well, the Denver Broncos on the other side of the ball are averaging the lowest plays ran over the last three games at 51.3 plays per game. Taking his tackle efficiency, that gives him about 5.4 tackles this game, which isn’t terrible. In their last game, Ford didn’t have a full game of Quay Walker to limit the opportunity that Ford would have to make his own plays. With Quay expected to be back this week and the lowered opportunities due to facing a struggling Broncos offense, I am looking at Ford more as a back-end DB3.
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