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IDP Start/Sit: Week 3
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 3.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
We have been looking good on our start decisions, but the sits/fades have not worked out yet. But as we get more information from what teams are doing and how they want to do it, we will make even better-informed decisions.
Let’s start making some of those decisions for Week 3.
Week 2 Recap
Start: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 assist, 1 sack) 👍
Sit: Quinnen Williams (6 solos) 👎
Start: Azeez Al-Shaair (5 solos, 5 assists) 👍
Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (9 solos, 4 assists) 👎
Start: Jevon Holland (8 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👍
Sit: Marcus Maye (6 solos, 1 assist) 👎
Week 3 Starts & Sits
START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL36 (EDGE 26)
Gregory Rousseau is one of those “in-between” players for me. He has the talent but doesn’t get high-end snap counts, and in doing so, he ends up making the big plays at times that get us excited about his upside but the snap percentages near 60% limited his ability to have a more consistent floor. This week though, he has such a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders, that I am happy to fire up Rousseau as a strong DL option.
Washington has allowed one of the highest pressure rates at 29% so far this season, and teams have been able to take advantage of that as well, registering a just as impressive, 24% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has been able to produce in the pressure department this season as well, with 6 pressures on 33 pass-rush attempts for a very good, 18.18% pressure rate. This matchup looks like a great one for Rousseau to register his first sack of the season. (And maybe more?)
SIT: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL35 (EDGE 25)
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka was a player I thought had some great “buy-low” value this off-season due to the path to the volume he seemingly had for the Buccaneers for the 2023 season. JTS is in a similar situation he is receiving only 50-60% of the snaps like Rousseau, but he does not have the consistent performances to justify his value.
He is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Bears, but I would take that with a grain of salt for the time being, as that was a favorable matchup.
Now he gets the Philadelphia Eagles who have one of the lowest numbers in the league for both pressure rate (21%) and sack conversion (6%). The Eagles also showed us their willingness to lean heavily into what is working for them, and if they can establish a successful run game again, pass-rush opportunities could be very hard to come by for JTS and the Bucs.
START: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB35
I might get kicked out of The IDP Show group chat for even suggesting this (editor’s note: yes, he’s gone), but Anzalone seems in line for some great stats this coming Sunday. The Detroit Lions take on the Atlanta Falcons who have been very efficient moving the ball on the ground so far. They are middle of the back after 2 weeks in plays ran but they are 4th in total run plays this season. And their Week 1 matchup, plays ran were skewed lower thanks to multiple turnovers in their opponents' territory for a short field.
Detroit’s defense has not been anything special yet and is likely to allow Atlanta to pile up a good handful of plays again. If we take a look at the 2 primary LBs from those first matchups and what they did combined:
Week 1: Panthers had 10 combined LB tackles on 51 snaps and Derrick Brown had an outlier 8 tackle game
Week 2: Packers had 32 combined LB tackles on 82 snaps
The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, but the game script, Anzalone’s usage, and Arthur Smith’s extreme penchant to run the ball, set nicely for the Detroit LBs and Alex Anzalone.
SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB10
Nick Bolton is a guy you likely spent high capital getting on your roster and might not be viable to sit him, but at least manage your expectations for this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Chicago Bears and the Bears have not been good on either side of the ball up to this point. This doesn’t bode well for the IDP opportunities and Nick Bolton. First, the low number of plays ran for the Bears since they cannot sustain drives as they are just averaging 60 plays per game so far this year. Then, you pair that with Nick Bolton’s usage of 96% in week 1 and then 79% in week 2! He was not coming off the field last year, and now all of a sudden we are seeing this, it makes me nervous about Bolton’s upside.
Additionally, the Chiefs' offense should not struggle to move the ball against the Bears' defense meaning even less time for the Bears to have the ball and run plays for Nick Bolton and the other Chiefs’ IDPs.
You can still start Bolton due to his ability to make plays around the ball and be efficient, but if you can pivot away this week or construct your lineup with a lower floor in mind, I highly recommend it.
START: Dax Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, DB52 (S47)
Dax Hill has had a nice start to this season for the Bengals. However, the Bengals haven’t had the best start to their season. And it has shown with their inability to keep opponents off the field. Hill has already played 99% of the snaps for a total of 147 snaps. Even with the volume, Hill has shown strong efficiency with 10.8% tackle efficiency. He has added an INT and a PBU as well. His sweet spot alignment of 40.8% is not elite, but it is enough to help keep his floor in place for IDP production.
Now, enter the Los Angeles Rams who have surprised us with their performances this year and have gotten back some of that magic we saw during their title run in the 2021 season. And in doing so, they are leading the NFL in plays ran with 156. This aligns with the Bengals’ performance this year and I expect more of the same for both the Rams’ offense and the Bengals defense. Even without the strong efficiency, there is enough volume that Dax Hill should outplay DB52 by quite a bit this week.
SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB12 (S12)
Kyle Dugger is one of my favorite IDP DBs this season, but you can only do so much in the DB role for IDP. And the opportunity for Dugger this week looks bleak facing off against the New York Jets. They have averaged just under 50 plays a game the first two weeks with Zach Wilson leading the offense. Even if Dugger is getting 100% of the snaps, 49 is not a great opportunity. Pair that with the offensive line of the Jets that is allowing plenty of pressures and sacks already, the chance the ball even gets close to Dugger is not looking great.
The Patriots defense also showed the willingness to play Dugger primarily deep, although, this was likely to help counter the deep routes of Tyreek Hill more than a desire to consistently play him there. He has played 61% either in the box, at DL, or in the slot, but even that ideal usage, might not be enough to see Dugger deliver a top 12 performance this week.
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