IDP Start/Sit: Week 15
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 15.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
Well, congratulations! You are most likely reading this because you have made it to your fantasy football playoffs. (Or you are just an IDP degenerate and you always want to learn.) All are welcome… now let’s try to win the first group a trophy!
Week 14 Recap
Start: Samson Ebukam (1 solo, 1 assist) 👎
Sit: Chase Young (1 PD) 👍
Start: Mykal Walker (1 solo, 2 assists, INT, PD) 👍 - Only 44% snaps. Saved by the INT. They seem to be moving on already due to his liability in pass coverage
Sit: Nicholas Morrow (4 solos, 2 assists, 2 PDs) 👎
Start: Kyle Hamilton (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL) 👍 - Only 56% of snaps, due to injury
Sit: Jalen Pitre (7 solos, 1 assist) 👎 - Apparently this was Zach Wilson’s coming out party???
Week 15 Starts & Sits
START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL44 (ED33)
Greg Rousseau and the Buffalo Bills have a huge matchup for the season and their playoff push this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Rousseau appears to be a strong option for our lineups this week as well as we make our push through the fantasy playoffs. Over the last 5 weeks, Rousseau has had one of his best stretches of the season with an impressive 22.6% win rate (8th best over that time). He has also produced 17 pressures that resulted in a 14.65% pass rush pressure rate.
This is ideal as the Cowboys are one of the better teams in pressures allowed at 26% this season (one of the third best), but when they do allow those pressures, it is converting into a sack 14% of the time (one of third-worst this season). But with Rousseau’s recent success, we can be confident in his ability to generate some pressure and that is most likely going to be converted into a sack this weekend.
We are definitely chasing upside this week with a lower tackle floor from Rousseau, but the big plays are there for the taking this weekend.
SIT: Boye Mafe, Seattle Seahawks, DL35 (ED27)
Boye Mafe got an opportunity to step up for the Seahawks this season with some key injuries and has done a nice job for the Seahawks (and IDP). He even had a stretch of 7 straight games with a sack! However this week, he draws a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. While they are middle of the pack at 26% pressures allowed, they are only allowing those to be converted into sacks at the third-best rate of 8%.
And despite Mafe’s wonderful production earlier in the season, in his last 5 games we have seen his overall production dip a bit. His pressures show similar to Rousseau's for our start with 18 pressures produced, however, it is done so with a very average win rate of 11.1%. This tends to indicate the pressures created are more flukey or due to broken plays and less sustainable. Mafe is a fade for me this weekend.
START: Josey Jewell, Denver Broncos, LB32
Josey Jewell has had an up-and-down season. He started as the green dot and 100% snap, 3-down linebacker for the Broncos. He got hurt, missed time, and seemingly lost his role to Alex Singleton. He saw a reduction in his snaps and even a Week 10 “demotion” to a non-starter. However, his last 4 games tell a different story.
His tackle production has been fairly average (24 tackles on 216 snaps, 11.1% efficiency), but what is exciting is the utilization as a pass-rusher that was not there to start the season. Over that same span, he has 27 pass rush opportunities (24 in his previous 8 games) and he is making the most of it. He has 8 pressures, 5 hurries, a QB hit, and 2 sacks. This week he gets the Detroit Lions who are averaging 17.7 tackles to the LB position, which is one of the better matchups for LB production, and this should help bring his floor up a little bit while providing a path to big-play upside.
SIT: David Mayo, Washington Commanders, LB46
David Mayo is coming back to the lineup, this time due to Jamin Davis’ injury. Mayo is a very plain LB. He comes in and does his job. He is not overly efficient; in fact, his tackle efficiency sits below league average for LB when he is in a starting role at 11.9% tackle efficiency. This is acceptable if you are looking for just a simple tackle floor, but at this point, I want IDPs who can help us WIN our playoff matchup.
Mayo brings no real upside either with his pass rush. His 2 sack game was more of a fluke than something we want to rely on going forward. He averages less than 3 pass rush attempts a game as a starter and the Los Angeles Rams are an overall negative matchup as well for LB scoring for IDP with only 14.9 tackles average to the position and a bottom-third scoring overall. Mayo may help your sandwich this week, but I don’t see him helping your lineup in the playoffs.
START: Vonn Bell, Carolina Panthers, DB55 (S42)
Vonn Bell has been an IDP darling for many years from his time in Cincinnati: 1,000+ snap seasons, 90+ tackle seasons, and plenty of other splash plays to go along with it. His first year in Carolina has been a bit of a disappointment though, the uncertainty of the role alongside Chinn and Woods, as well as injuries. However, he seems to be back into a role he is familiar with as the box safety for a defense.
Since coming back in Week 10, in his 3 full games, he is playing 41.83% of his snaps in the box alignment. In that stretch, he’s had 4, 7, and 7 tackle games. Enter the Atlanta Falcons and their 4th highest run rate in the NFL. This run rate and Bell’s alignment set him up for a very nice tackle game, but the upside comes from Desmond Ridder’s 9 interceptions and 10 fumbles this season already through 13 games. It helps provide a nice boost to Bell’s range of outcomes this week along with his steady floor.
SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB42 (S33)
Trevon Moehrig has had a very nice IDP season this year as he has transitioned into a more optimal alignment this season. Over the last two seasons we saw him go from 61 box snaps (out of 1,214), to 210 (out of 906), and this season he already has 266 box snaps. He has seen his best tackle totals already through 13 games as well.
So why would we fade Moehrig? It is primarily due to his alignment shifting a bit away from the box recently, as well as a potentially bad matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Of his last 5 games, 4 have seen 15 or fewer box snaps with the peak being 21 and during that same stretch, he is averaging 5.2 tackles per game (that is with a 1 game spike of 10 tackles, too). Then there’s his matchup against the Chargers, with Easton Stick at QB. LA will likely struggle to move the ball like last week and a short week with TNF won’t do the Chargers any favors to keep the offense on the field and provide Moehrig with enough opportunities to support his production. Moehrig is a great story this season, but he is a fade this week.
The IDP Show is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Thanks again to our friends at Reality Sports Online for sponsoring this article. If you’ve never checked out RSO and would like a taste of what their platform is like, we recommend starting with a free mock draft. The auction functionality is amazing!
Subscribe to The IDP Show so you don’t miss an episode!