IDP Start/Sit: Week 15
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 15.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
It’s playoff time!! I hope you’re all checking out this article to get an edge for your fantasy playoffs matchup. If not, I applaud you for staying plugged in order to plot for that IDP title next season! (Reminder: rankings are ECR from Fantasy Pros.)
Week 14 Recap
Start: Haason Reddick (1 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, not a ton, but delivered a sack for a solid week) 👍
Start: Josh Allen (1 sack, 3 solos, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 FR, a strong week for sure) 👍
Sit: Jerry Hughes (1 QB hit, his old man strength may be running out?) 👍
Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (3 solos, 3 assists, got injured during the game, did not deliver enough of a floor here that we would have wanted) 👎
Start: Jaylon Smith (7 solos, 2 assists, great tackle floor performance) 👍
Sit: David Long Jr. (DNP, he ended up not playing) 👍
Start: Rayshawn Jenkins (4 solos, 2 assists, him and Sauce are borderline good plays, I’ll take them as wins for this week) 👍
Start: Sauce Gardner (4 solos, 1 PD) 👍
Sit: Talanoa Hufanga (3 solos, 1 assist, Hufanga has been sliding in IDP production for the back half and is someone to keep a very keen eye on) 👍
Week 15 Starts & Sits
START: Azeez Ojulari, New York Giants, DL37
Ojulari has struggled with injuries all season but has two weeks in a row with solid snap counts, allowing him to show some of that 2021 flash again. He has 10 pressures and 3 sacks over these last two weeks and 41+ snaps in both games. He has struggled a bit in run defense and has a limited tackle floor, but his pass-rush upside is very real. He has a strong matchup against the Washington Commanders this week, who have the 5th highest pressure rate allowed this year and 13th highest sack conversion rate. Remember Week 13? That’s when Ojulari last played Washington (his first game back from injury) and he delivered 7 pressures (21.9% pass-rush pressure rate), 1 sack, and 2 QB hits. It’s safe to expect more of the same. Ojulari is a strong DL2 play this week.
START: Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts, DL68
Kwity Paye is another top talent from 2021’s draft class that has struggled with injury this season, but we’ve also seen glimpses of his upside. He’s delivered a successful IDP week just in run defense with 3 of his 7 (full) games with 5+ tackles, while 2, 3, and 1 were his other tackle counts. A solid floor paired with an ideal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend makes Paye worth way more than his DL68 ranking. The Vikings are allowing a league-worst pressure rate and are tied for the 9th highest sack conversion rate this season. Paye is another strong DL2 play this week.
SIT: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL23
Jeffery Simmons is arguably one of the best DTs in the league and for IDP, so how can you sit him? This boils down to the ankle injury that held him out of Week 10 and the injuries to other pass-rushers. These things have truly limited Simmons’ upside over the last 4 weeks. We have seen his pass-rush grade drop—his 4 lowest pass-rush grades have all come over the last 4 weeks—and he’s turned in 3 of his worst pressure performances as well. The Titans are supposed to get Denico Autry back this week which should help, but the matchup against the LA Chargers is not ideal. They are tied for the 10th lowest pressure rate and tied for the 2nd-best sack conversion rate allowed. Simmons might be a needed play in DT-required leagues, but I would lower expectations and in DL leagues, he would be a low-end DL3 for me this week.
START: Jack Sanborn, Chicago Bears, LB35
Jack Sanborn is one of those darling waiver wire adds, and as such, he feels like a high-end LB2 every week. He has delivered a MINIMUM of 7 solo tackles every week since Week 9 when he stepped in for Roquan Smith. He has 3 of those 5 games with at least one play behind the line of scrimmage too. And the sprinkles on top of this Sanborn sundae? He played 100% snaps the last two weeks. The Bears aren’t taking him off the field and you shouldn’t be taking him out of your lineup. He is a high-end LB2.
START: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts, LB36
Zaire Franklin was a fun story to start the year with the injuries and uncertainties with his LB running mates, Shaquille Leonard and Bobby Okereke. But he has played 100% of the snaps in all but 1 game (96% in Week 10), had 8+ combined tackles in all but 2 games (Weeks 7 and 9), and had a play behind the line of scrimmage in 8 of the 13 games this year. You may not be sold on Franklin for 2023 and the Colts (I personally am) but you cannot tell me you haven’t seen enough from Franklin this year to consider him in your top 24 LBs. He should be a strong LB2 this week.
SIT: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB29
Devin Lloyd was the second LB drafted in the 2022 draft class and a 1st-round pick, and as such, came in with a lot of hype. He showed early flashes of production, for both NFL and IDP, and got everyone excited about what he could be. However, down the stretch, he began to fade and Chad Muma took advantage of this opportunity and balled out. Muma was out last week and Lloyd was put back into a 3-down role alongside Foyesade. But Muma logged a limited practice on Wednesday, and an ankle injury like his tends to heal in 1-2 weeks, so his return to play is close. I would be worried about Lloyd’s ability to pull a heavy snap count and would not have a high level of confidence in him. He would be a low-end LB4 at this point.
START: Andrew Adams, Tennessee Titans, DB138
This is a REAL deep shot with Andrew Adams, but this is the time of the year you may need that type of hail mary for your matchup, so let’s dig in. Adams has been relatively average in his tackle efficiency for a safety at 9%, only 1 INT, no fumbles forced or recovered, and his snap count is a little below ideal at 81% on the season. So why Adams this week? He has been very efficient in gathering up all his tackles in coverage this year—with 75% of his tackles coming not in run support—and the second most pass-happy team in the league, LA Chargers, up next on the schedule. He has shown us the ability to pile up tackles, including a 10-tackle game last week against Jacksonville. Adams is a low-end DB3 this week.
START: Marcus Jones, New England Patriots, DB70
Marcus Jones may have snuck onto people’s radars in Week 11 with his game-winning punt return for a TD against the New York Jets in their 10-3 win. If not then, then in Week 13 he got on the offensive side of the ball and took a screen pass 40+ yards to the house for a receiving TD. And now this last week, he stepped up with an injury to the current outside CB, Jack Jones, while playing the Cardinals and delivered with 7 solos, 1 assisted tackle, 1 INT, and 2 PDs. Assuming your league accounts for all of these types of scoring for all positions, Jones is a beautiful amalgamation of fantasy football production. The real question is though, will he be the starting outside corner this week? With Jack Jones a DNP on Wednesday, how quickly he was ruled out of the game on Monday night, and it being a shorter week, then I’d say Jones is in line for another start and a chance to roll up a very full box score. Jones is a strong DB3 and a high-end CB2 in cornerback-required leagues.
SIT: Jalen Thompson, Arizona Cardinals, DB21
Jalen Thompson burst onto the IDP scene last year with 120+ combined tackles. This year he is on pace to just hit 90 over a 17-game pace. Thompson went from 49.4% of his snaps in the sweet spot in 2021 to 43% of his time there in 2022. Not a major drop-off, but enough to cause some inconsistencies in his tackle production. This week he gets the Denver Broncos, who will most likely have Brett Rypien and an offense that has struggled with Wilson, so I don’t see Rypien doing much better under center. Fewer and shorter drives for the Broncos will cause an overall reduction for Thompson this week too. Thompson would be a low-end DB3 for me at this time.
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