IDP Start/Sit: Week 13
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 13.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
Another week in the books with 12 behind us and we are two short weeks away from most of the fantasy playoffs! Every matchup is amplified as we all make that final push to the playoffs and with that, each lineup decision makes even more critical. Let’s walk through 9 players and the process of figuring out who to fire up and who to get in some rest on our fantasy benches. (Reminder: rankings are ECR from Fantasy Pros.)
Week 12 Recap
Start: Michael Danna (1 solo, 3 assists, 2 QB hits, process felt sound, just didn’t convert the big play) 👍
Start: Lorenzo Carter (2 solos, 1 assist) 👎
Sit: Aidan Hutchinson (Big ol’ goose egg, I hate to be “right” on this one, Hutch will bounce back) 👍
Start: Kaden Elliss (12 solos, 2 assists, not sure how much more time we have, but let’s enjoy this ride) 👍
Start: Dre Greenlaw (4 solos, 1 assist, PD, FR, didn’t deliver the tackle numbers, but made other plays to be a relevant IDP) 👍
Sit: Alex Singleton (4 solos, 4 assists, strong numbers overall for his snap count, Mr. Efficiency strikes again) 👎
Start: Grant Delpit (4 solos, 1 assist, PD, solid safety/DB numbers) 👍
Start: Vonn Bell (4 solos, 2 assists, didn’t kill you, but definitely thought he could be more) 👎
Sit: Kerby Joseph (3 solos, 3 assists, not great, but delivered more than I anticipated) 👎
Week 13 Starts & Sits
START: Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle Seahawks, DL30
Uchenna Nwosu has stepped into a role as a lead edge rusher for the Seahawks nicely this season after signing a 2-year $9.5 million contract this last off-season. His performance outside the box score supports this too. He has a very nice, 12.85% pressure rate and a pass-rush PFF grade of 71.3 on the season so far. For IDP, he has played nearly 600 snaps already and is taking 77% of his team’s defensive snaps, both career highs. Having that kind of snap count is ideal for our edge rushers and pairing that with the other metrics, he would be in consideration for an every week play. The real kicker though, is the favorable matchup against the hapless Los Angeles Rams. This is one of the most favorable matchups for pass rushers as they are allowing a league worst, 30% pressure rate and the 2nd worst sack conversion at 20%. We talked about Nwosu on the week 12 preview episode from a dynasty perspective (check out the episode with me and Josh for more detail!) and for this week, fire up Uchenna as a low-end DL1.
START: Leonard Floyd, Los Angeles Rams, DL41
Floyd has started off his 2022 campaign with less than consistent or ideal production (both NFL and IDP). However, he has had a nice surge here over the last 5 games. A total of 17 pressures and all 5 of his sacks so far this season coming in those games as well. In that same stretch, he has a respectable 10.4% pressure rate to go along with his 5 sacks, which a solid bump up from the first 6 games where he had a pressure rate of 6.4% and 0 sacks. Now Floyd has the Seahawks for an opponent and they are surrendering the 7th worst pressure rate at 27% and the 4th worst sack conversion rate at 18%. These things, combined with the Rams run defense being one of the lone bright spots, expect plenty of passing opportunities from the Seahawks and Floyd to capitalize. Floyd should be a mid-range DL2 this week, with nice upside.
SIT (fade): Matthew Judon, New England Patriots, DL24
Matthew Judon has been on a tear lately this season. Since week 3, he has recorded a minimum of 3 pressures and only has 3 games where he did not record a sack. So saying Judon is a “sit” this week is really more of a fade, or a lowering of expectations. Judon has delivered a strong 17.1% pressure rate over this entire season and 14 sacks. Now he is taking on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offensive line which has allowed an 8th best 24% pressure rate and the 2nd best 8% sack conversion rate. Is a sack possible for Judon? Absolutely. However, I am not feeling great for that and his multi-sack upside is not really in play at this point too. Finding options better than Judon might be tough, but he is more in the mid-DL3 range for me this week.
START: Chad Muma, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB63
Chad Muma was a rookie on a lot of IDP fans radars during the draft cycle. He ended up with strong draft capital being pick #70 overall and going in the 3rd round. In most spots this would have netted him a chance to start from week 1, however, he ended up in a crowded LB room in Jacksonville with newly signed Foyesade Olukun and another rookie who was a 1st round pick in Devin Lloyd. As such, he sat behind the money and the draft capital most of this season. Week 10 before the Jags bye, he took over the 4th quarter from Devin Lloyd. Then the bye week, which historically is the time where teams implement changes to schemes or the depth charts. After the bye week, Muma jumped to 100% snap LB alongside Foyesade and Lloyd quickly was relegated to a lesser role. Nothing from the coaches explicitly stated this was a matchup decision, just that they wanted to “see what he can do”. I am in on the Muma hype train and am looking to pick him up where I don’t already have him. This week he is a strong LB3 play and you might want to try and trade for him where you can (assuming your league trade deadline hasn’t already passed).
START: Christian Harris, Houston Texans, LB60
The Christian bros were broken up last week when Christian Harris went down with a shoulder injury, but they say there is not structural damage and he was back at practice on Wednesday as a limited participant. However, Harris was a 100% LB 3 out of the past 4 weeks (with the other week being 88% of snaps) which is showing, they want him out there moving forward for the Texans. But they will need him this week against the Browns and Nick Chubb (and the return of Watson). Even with Watson under center, expect more of Chubb as Watson gets used to playing an actual game with this offense. This is a classic game of strength (Browns rushing attack) vs. weakness (Texans run defense). Expect Harris to be very busy all game. Harris is low-end LB3 this week but is someone to target in your dynasty / keeper leagues. He is likely to be the LB1 next year with Kirksey the only competition for that and he has a clear out of his contract in 2023.
SIT: Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LB32
Lavonte David is one of the greatest IDPs that there ever was, so listing him as a sit this week is not something I really ever considered I would be writing. But here we are, nonetheless. David finally topped 5 tackles in the last 3 weeks with his game against Cleveland, but that was a game that went to overtime and gave him a whopping 79 plays. He was able to give us 8 total tackles which is 10.1% tackle efficiency, not that great for 3-down LBs. He also only has 3 pressures on the season and only 25 pass rush snaps. His once strong upside for sacks and big-plays has dropped off considerably. This week against the New Orleans Saints leaves a lot to be desired as well in terms of overall production. The Saints are only running 51.3 plays per game over the last 3 and against the Bucs it doesn’t look much better for them. Snap numbers like that, and even if he reaches 10% tackle efficiency, you are talking about 5 stops with no upside. This makes Lavonte a very low-end LB4 at best.
START: Rodney McLeod, Indianapolis Colts, DB91
At the start of the 2022 season, Nick Cross was all the rage for the Colts box safety role in Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 defense. As the season progressed Cross disappeared into the background and the Colts’ secondary become a big ambiguous. But McLeod quietly took that box safety role and delivered very steady numbers. He is most certainly not thriving in the role and putting up gaudy IDP production. He is however, on a 9-week streak of 5+ tackles and has only missed 3 total tackles on the season! This is almost the literal definition of consistency. He has the Cowboys this week who run the ball the 8th most and with McLeod taking 69% of his snaps in the sweet spot, he is primed to deliver his 5-7 tackle window and then some. Fire up McLeod as a high-end DB3 option for this week and a great depth piece for any IDP roster.
START: DeAndre Houston-Carson, Chicago Bears, DB58
My early season buy of Eddie Jackson is out for the rest of the season with his Lisfranc injury suffered in their week 12 loss to the Jets. This wasn’t the only injury the Bears dealt with in their secondary either. Rookie standout Jaquan Brisker was out with a concussion and based on average turnarounds for players suffering a concussion this season, it is not likely that he sees the field this weekend either. Enter, DeAndre Houston-Carson. He has stepped in last season and in week 12 and during those time, he has assumed that role of box safety. With this role most likely belonging to him and the Packers coming to Chicago, I expect a heavy dose of the run game or at best, utilizing quick throws with an injured Aaron Rodgers. This is more of a strong volume play for IDP based on injuries, but even so, he is a strong DB3 play this week.
SIT: John Johnson III, Cleveland Browns, DB26
John Johnson III is coming off back-to-back strong weeks for IDP production in week 11 (9 total stops) and week 12 (6 total stops). But don’t let this lead you to expecting more of the same this week against the Houston Texans. Johnson primarily plays in the deep safety role and these past two weeks that he found success, was against two of the most pass heavy offenses in the NFL in Tampa Bay (2nd in pass plays ran) and Buffalo (8th, has been dropping since Allen’s elbow injury). Johnson will need sustained pass volume to continue his success and the Texans are not going to deliver that. Plus, the best way to attack the Browns this season has been through their rush defense so far and this feels like a perfect chance for the Texans to get back to their running game with rookie Dameon Pierce then. Johnson is a high-end DB4 play for me this week.
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