IDP Start/Sit: Week 12
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 12.
It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there! (Reminder: rankings are ECR from Fantasy Pros.)
Week 11 Recap
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits) 👍
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, 1 QB hit, injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point) 👎
Sit: Khalil Mack (1 QB hit, 1 solo) 👍
Start: Frankie Luvu (1 sack, 6 solos, 4 assists) 👍
Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists) 👎
Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists) 👍
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos, 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward) 👎
Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD) 👍
Sit: Kyle Dugger (1 sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD, 90% of snaps, Dugger SZN might be in full effect moving forward) 👎
Week 12 Starts & Sits
START: Michael Danna, Kansas City Chiefs, DL53
Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs, logging 53% of the snaps on the year. Normally, a player like this wouldn’t be an ideal target to start. However, Danna has put up a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams, who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involves more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but Danna should be available in the vast majority of leagues. He has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!
START: Lorenzo Carter, Atlanta Falcons, DL69
Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons’ defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for the DL position. Carter has a favorable matchup against the Commanders, who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and a 17% sack conversion rate. Carter’s pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%, but he’s played well in run defense, posting a solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 this season. Also, the Commanders like to run the ball (44% of their plays) and have run a high number of plays over the last 3 weeks at 69.7, which should spell plenty of opportunities for Carter, who I see as a high-end DL3.
SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL20
It pains me to list Hutch here, especially since he’s played 86% of snaps this season. While he’s delivered some big performances this season (and is a strong dynasty asset), Hutchinson doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Also, Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been propped up by some unsustainable metrics. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks. He has 5.5 sacks this season and 3 of those came in Week 2. A more stable metric—his tackle rate—is average at best: 2.3 tackles per game. Start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.
START: Kaden Elliss, New Orleans Saints, LB29
Kaden Elliss: the man behind the man. With Pete Werner injured, Elliss has stepped in and thrived. He’s played 96% and 92% of snaps the last 2 weeks and delivered 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, 1 PD, and 1 FF. His sack production has been very efficient but Elliss is good at rushing the passer, posting a 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade. Last week, that grade hit 91.2—I think this is a taste of what’s to come. Elliss has a solid tackle floor with big-play upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think it’s less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 plays per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week, with next week looking the same.
START: Dre Greenlaw, San Francisco 49ers, LB34
Dre Greenlaw has always been an efficient tackler and that’s continued this season. He has a 14.9% tackle rate and has only missed 6 tackles so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara favors Greenlaw’s ability and play style. If you’re worried he’s not playing 100% of snaps recently, remember: he had an ejection in Week 10 and the 49ers starters were pulled during a blowout in Week 11. Greenlaw is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.
SIT: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB27
Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle rate of 17.6% and is sitting at a cool rate of 19.7%. That said, you still need the snaps to see consistent production. Singleton passed Jonas Griffith on the depth chart but is still only seeing 59% of the snaps. Even at that percentage, he can be useful for IDP, but Singleton’s matchup against the Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running a league-worst 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.
START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29
Grant Delpit has played nearly 100% of his team’s defensive snaps this season. Along with the elite usage, Delpit has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP, and as such, he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend—who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3—Delpit should see plenty of premium opportunities to produce. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in the sweet spot. Delpit is a strong DB2 candidate with DB1 upside.
START: Vonn Bell, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32
Vonn Bell is another safety with elite usage: 98% with 56.1% in the sweet spot. Unlike Delpit, Bell does not play a pass-heavy team that he can feast upon. Instead, he gets a run-heavy team that will attack the middle of the field. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It’s a solid floor play this week, and yes, that means a lower ceiling, but I like Bell as a high-end DB3, low-end DB2.
SIT: Kerby Joseph, Detroit Lions, DB13
Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lions defense this year. He was given an opportunity due to injuries and has seen almost 100% of snaps since then. He’s delivered big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. While the INTs aren’t reliable week to week, they do speak to his big-play upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2 (or two high safeties) approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big plays, which Joseph has delivered (but aren’t reliable). Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. He sits as DB3 for me, but if you want to plug him in because of the big-play opportunities, I get it.
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