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IDP Start/Sit: Week 10
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 10.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
Week 10 is upon us, we are halfway through the NFL season and a bit further through our fantasy seasons. Week 9 was a bit of a hit-and-miss, but we definitely found some values and we have some great values for you here going into week 10 that will hopefully help you make your push into the fantasy playoffs.
Week 9 Recap
Start: Jadeveon Clowney (2 solos, 1 assist, 2 PD) 👎 - 2 PDs keep this from being a bad week at least
Sit: Jonathan Greenard (2 solos, 3 QB hits) 👍 - Very close to being a big week though!
Start: Blake Cashman (5 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍
Sit: Kaden Elliss (5 solos, 4 assists, PD) 👎
Start: Trent McDuffie (8 solos, 2 assists, FF) 👍
Sit: Trevon Moehrig (5 solos, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👎
Week 9 Starts & Sits
START: Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL61 (DT16)
If you heard any of my offseason chatter, you probably know that Kancey was one of my favorites and I really loved the landing spot in Tampa Bay for him. He got off to a rough start battling injuries. He saw 11 snaps in Week 1 and then didn’t play again until Week 6. But since then, Kancey has 4 straight games of 40+ snaps and just saw 59 in Week 9. He is averaging 4 pressures, 2 tackles, and 0.5 sacks over that span as well. While these are not “stop-the-presses” type of numbers, what they are is consistent.
And this is for a rookie who has already missed a quarter of the season. I feel good about his continued prospects with what he has shown in his smaller sample this season. This week he gets to face off against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing the 2nd most pressures per drop back at 33% this season. It’s not just the pressures, but also the conversions into sacks is 6th worst in the NFL at 17%. This is an ideal pass-rush matchup for the Buccaneers as a unit, but I think we see more growth and more importantly, production, from Calijah Kancey this week.
SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL29 (ED24)
Khalil Mack has shown us some explosive performances already this season. In Week 4, he had 6 sacks, and in Week 9, he had 2 sacks. These 8 sacks came against a rookie QB who just kept holding on to the ball in his first regular-season start, Aidan O’Connell, and a QB who is constantly being questioned if he should be a starting QB in Zach Wilson. This accounts for 8 of his 9 sacks and also 18 of his 39 total pressures this season. He is capable of capitalizing in ideal matchups, however, Week 10 does not appear to be one of those matchups as the Chargers take on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions have the 5th best pressure rate allowed (23%) and 2nd best sack conversion percentage (8%) and have shown a clear desire to run the ball with the 9th highest run percentage. Mack has not been the Mack of his prime and his tackle floor is severely limited to less than 2 tackles per game as well this season.
START: Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens, LB15
Telling you to start a top 15 LB rank may seem like a silly thing to say, but Patrick Queen has shown that he can deliver an average tackle floor, but what is the real kicker is he has consistent pass-rush utilization. He averages over 7 pass rush attempts a game and has converted 4 of his 64 pass rush attempts into sacks this season. Queen has the clear upside each week with his pass rush ability, but this week, against the Cleveland Browns, we will see his tackle floor and production increase.
The Cleveland Browns are the 2nd most friendly team for LB tackle production, with an average of 19.3 tackles/game to LBs. And Roquan and Queen are the essential LBs that play nearly every snap, so most of the tackles should be piled up between them.
SIT: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB32
Alex Anzalone continues to be the lead LB in Detriot even after they spent a first-round pick on Jack Campbell. Jack Campbell seems to be coming on as the LB2 (maybe LB1 of the near future), but even with Anzalone holding down the lead role, he has not been the pinnacle of efficiency. His tackle efficiency on the season is below the league average at his 11.6%. This shows too as he has only had 7 or more tackles twice this season. His upside has been relatively limited outside of his Week 8 game against Las Vegas where he had 8 pass rush attempts and converted it into 2 sacks.
Every other game this year he had less than 5 pass rush attempts and only converted it into 1 sack. Now with his Week 10 matchup against the Chargers, we have a less-than-ideal one as the Chargers are providing the lowest number of tackles per game to LBs at 13.4 (thank you to PFF’s Jon Macri for this tidbit).
START: Alontae Taylor, New Orleans Saints, UNRANKED
Alontae Taylor has seen the football plenty this year. He is tied for first among all defenders for total targets faced this season at 66. He hasn’t turned this into earth-shattering numbers, but very stable numbers. He is averaging 4.25 tackles and 1 PD per game. While 5 of his 8 PDs did come in week 3 against the Packers, this highlights the boom upside he can deliver along with a solid tackle floor. It helps that he is playing a lot of his snaps out of the slot defender position to the tune of 391 of his 487 snaps coming from the slot alignment. Then enter the Minnesota Vikings and their 3rd highest passing percentage this year at 65.3% of all their plays being pass plays.
And don’t fret that Joshua Dobbs is coming to town, he took 38 dropbacks after coming in for the injured Jaren Hall. With a full week of prep and learning, I think it is safe to say they will still be passing at a higher volume. The safe floor, the volume of opportunities he should see this week, and his ability to show us boom weeks are the reasons we should be getting Alontae Taylor into our lineups this week.
SIT: Keisean Nixon, Green Bay Packers, DB38 (CB8)
Keisean Nixon burst onto the scene last year thanks to his explosive play on special teams and some injuries to the Packers’ secondary. He has done a great job carving out his role as the primary slot defender and delivered IDP relevance as well this year. He has taken 279 of his 364 snaps in the slot alignment and delivered 33 tackles and 3 PDs this season. While this is very viable in our lineups (especially CB required), this week he faces off against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 11th in percentage of plays that are passing plays, however, they do not like to utilize their slot WRs with regularity. Over the last 3 games, they have only targeted them a combined 7 times.
Whereas Nixon, over that same span, has seen 14 targets. If you are going to cut the tackle floor of my IDP in half potentially based on the matchup and utilization, he quickly becomes a concern for me, and since the new kickoff role and the limited returns seen this season, I lose confidence in starting them.
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