IDP Start/Sit: Week 10
Jake Kohlhagen, lead IDP contributor for Reality Sports Online, shares his IDP starts and sits for Week 10.
This article is presented by our friends at Reality Sports Online.
Week 10 is upon us, which means we need to nail those IDP lineups so we can make our playoff push. Or maybe we’re just trying to find a stash in our dynasty leagues for next year or some trade bait. Regardless, let’s see who is looking good for us in Week 10 and see if we can either get them into a starting lineup or on your roster!
Week 9 Recap
Start: Travon Walker (2 solos) 👎
Start: Gregory Rousseau (1 solo, 1 TFL, injured and considered week-to-week)
Sit: Rasheem Green (1 PD) 👍
Start: Nicholas Morrow (2 solos, 2 assists, 1 PD) 👎
Start: David Long Jr. (6 solos, 4 assists, 1 QB hit) 👍
Sit: Isaiah Simmons (6 solos, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎
Start: Andre Cisco (2 solos, 3 assists, PD) 👍
Start: Xavier Woods (4 solos, 3 assists) 👍
Sit: Jessie Bates III (1 solo, 3 assists, 1 INT, PD) 👎
Week 10 Starts & Sits
START: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL24
Simmons has been talked about as an elite defensive lineman by plenty of analysts but tends to lose some IDP value due to the fact he plays as an interior defender primarily. Beyond the position, Simmons delivers all the baseline stats we want from a top DL option: 81% of the snaps for the season on an average of 55 snaps/game. He has turned that into stellar IDP production with per-game averages of nearly 4 tackles, 0.7 sacks, 0.5 PD, and 1.1 QB hits. Along with year-to-date production, he has a positive matchup this week against Denver, which has allowed a pressure rate of 28% on the season and an 18% sack conversion rate. Simmons has been on a tear the last 4 weeks with 19 pressures and 2 sacks. Additionally, if anyone in your league is valuing Simmons as a low-end DL2, I’d recommend trying to buy at that evaluation!
START: Josh Paschal, Detroit Lions, DL79
Josh Paschal has not had much of a chance to shine this season since he didn’t play his first game until 3 weeks ago. In those three games, he has managed 8 pressures, including 5 in his last game. In those games, he has been a strong volume-play, getting nearly 85% of the snaps for the defense. This snap baseline gives him a great chance to produce, and now with a positive matchup against Chicago, he is a high-end DL3 play. The Bears are allowing a 30% pressure rate and a 14% sack conversion rate. Paschal is a good play this week, and as a rookie with limited overall production, he is someone you could look into buying low and stashing in dynasty.
SIT: Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle Seahawks, DL12
Uchenna Nwosu has been delivering above offseason expectations this year and normally has been a strong play. He has a great baseline of 80% snaps and has had back-to-back weeks of 2-sack games. Normally I would advocate playing through poor matchups; however, Tampa Bay is less than ideal with a low-pressure rate of 19% and a 12% sack conversion rate. Also, Tom Brady has the fastest time to throw out of any QB this year with at least 100 attempts. This is not a hard “sit,” but definitely consider all options on your roster before just plugging Nwosu into your lineup.
START: Blake Martinez, Las Vegas Raiders, LB42
Blake Martinez was once a name that every IDP manager knew. However, after an ACL injury, he went from being a top IDP performer to being cut and then landing another chance with the Las Vegas Raiders. Now, an injury to Divine Deablo is giving him another chance at IDP (and NFL) relevance. Last week, Martinez played 91% of the snaps, saw the same amount of 3rd down snaps, and was the leader on 1st and 2nd down snaps, too. All this work despite not being the defensive playcaller on the defense (that guy is coming up later). He showed above-average tackle efficiency at 17.7% this last week. Deablo expects to be out a minimum of 4 weeks after being placed on injured reserve, so let’s keep firing up Martinez. He should continue his old habits while working with Patrick Graham, his former DC in New York.
START: Willie Gay Jr., Kansas City Chiefs, LB34
Willie Gay Jr. had a strong start to the season and really showed out in Week 2. However, he was suspended for PEDs, missed 4 games, and is working to earn back his previous role in this defense. He has seen his snap percentage slowly creep back up to regular numbers over the last two weeks and I believe this is going to continue as we move forward. He has a Week 10 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are running the 11th most plays per game this year, with a slight uptick in that metric over the previous 3 games. While on the field, Gay’s tackle efficiency has been strong at 14.7%. This week, he is trending towards a strong play as a high-end LB3.
SIT: Bobby Okereke, Indianapolis Colts, LB41
At the start of this season, many viewed Okereke as an LB2/3. What we didn’t take into account was the emergence of Zaire Franklin, who’s taken his opportunity and run with it. Franklin earned the captain patch from his teammates and eventually got the green dot as the defensive playcaller. Now we finally have Shaquille Leonard returning to action, which is making it difficult for all three of the Colts linebackers to find time on the field. Okereke has seen his snaps dip the last two weeks (61% to 46%) as Leonard makes his way back onto the field. This dip should keep us from wanting to start Okereke in our lineups unless it’s an LB4 (or deeper) spot.
START: Duron Harmon, Las Vegas Raiders, DB46
Earlier we talked about Martinez, who is not wearing the green dot for the Raiders. That’s because Duron Harmon is the defensive playcaller, which is the strongest indicator of playing time. Harmon saw 100% of the snaps last week and that will hold true for this week. He has taken the opportunity and turned it into solid production, racking up 5 solos and 3 assists last week. With 42% of his snaps in the “sweet spot,” there should be plenty of opportunity to succeed, even against a Colts offense that is struggling and debuting a new head coach and OC. Now that Abram has been cut (and claimed off waivers by the Packers), Harmon’s role is even more secure. You should consider him a capable starter and a high-end DB3 rest of season.
START: Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles Rams, DB29
Jalen Ramsey is known for his shutdown play as an outside corner, but he should also be known as a cornerback who provides solid enough IDP production that he’s a viable DB option in combined position leagues. Ramsey has delivered a per-game stat line of 4.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and 1.1 PD. Part of this production is attributable to the fact that, even though he’s an “outside” corner, Ramsey still sees 33% of his snaps in the slot and the box. Partnered with his overall snap volume (98% on the season), Ramsey should be considered a low-end DB2 for the rest of the season.
SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB26
Simmons has played 100% of snaps the last 3 weeks but has spent a good amount of time on the injury report during that stretch, leading to concerns about his durability and performance. Along with that, Simmons plays most of his snaps (55%) in the deep safety role. This week, the Broncos are playing the Titans, who run the 2nd fewest plays per game. Not only that, they run the 3rd most run plays. Considering where Simmons lines up, this is a negative matchup for IDP production. Yes, Simmons is a big name with a history of IDP relevance, but this is a matchup to stay away from.
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