IDP Recap: Week 16

With Week 16 complete, let's get you up to speed with a recap of the biggest IDP headlines from each game.

Next week is the one for all the marbles. No byes, no mulligans, no do-overs. It’s win or go home. So, who can we celebrate for getting us to the promised land? (Or curse for dooming us to obscurity for another season?)

Let’s jump right in and find out.

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Broncos 27, Chargers 34

• If Brandon Jones got you into the playoffs, he made sure to give you a performance to be happy with. Jones was the top IDP scorer in this game thanks to his 10 tackle (16.7% rate) outing. It’s been a strong career resurgence from Jones after suffering an ACL injury in Miami in 2022 and then playing sparingly in 2023. He’s now a mainstay in this Denver defense and making the most of his opportunities.

• Daiyan Henley is the picture of consistency. Since Week 12 he’s averaged 9.6 tackles a week and 12.9 PPG. This week, 10 tackles (15.6% rate) and 14 points. Do I long for the 22.12 points he averaged in the 3 games leading up to Week 12? Absolutely, but right now that consistency is something you can take to the bank.

• Derwin James is cooling off at an inopportune time after being on a heater coming into the playoffs. Week 15’s 10-point game didn’t crush you, but his 5.75 this week left a lot to be desired. You’re still starting him in your championship game (provided you made it) but we’re hoping for an improved showing against New England.

• It had to happen — regression was coming. The chance of him continuing his hot streak was a statistical outlier, but damn, did Nik Bonitto have to have his down game in the second most important fantasy matchup of the year? He had 11.5 sacks in his last 12 games, 28.18 PPG over the last 5 games, and then he hits you with a 1 tackle, 1 assist, 2 point game in your semifinal? Soul-crushing.

  

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Texans 19, Chiefs 27

• Trent McDuffie had analysts talking all season about how Sneed’s departure had moved him outside and had a massive toll on his fantasy production. All to turn around in Weeks 15 and 16, grab 2 interceptions, 4 PDs, and 3 TFLs and give you an average of just under 24 PPG. I know a lot of best ball teams are thankful for that after he was the CB5 taken in drafts this year.

• Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson got you to the dance, but they weren’t there to make much of an impact. They combined for just 12 points on roughly 70% of snaps. Now both got very close on a couple of occasions as they registered 3 total QB hits, but close only counts in horseshoes and those missed opportunities could be the reason you didn’t get a title shot.

  

• Christian Harris was banged up coming into the contest, but he played all but 2 of Houston’s 74 defensive snaps and put up the points in bunches. Harris had 7 tackles (9.7% rate) and 1 sack as he collected just his second 18+ performance since his rookie year, with the other one coming in Week 18 last year, so it wasn’t usable for most managers.

• Jaden Hicks grabbed his second interception in as many games as the rookie safety had another solid performance on limited snaps for Kansas City. I’m of the firm opinion Hicks will be the Reid replacement next season, so I’ll echo last week’s sentiment and advise you to check your dynasty waivers.

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Steelers 17, Ravens 34

• Kyle Van Noy was a top 5 DL through the first 4 weeks of the season with 6 sacks. Then he fell off a cliff, collecting just 1 sack in the next 7 weeks. That’s all changed back again, with KVN managing to get back in the flames and pick up 3.5 sacks in his last 3 games to give him a red-hot 18.55 PPG.

  

• Minkah Fitzpatrick has three double-digit point games all season, two of them have come in the past 2 weeks. This week’s 22-point game was Minkah’s best fantasy game since Week 4 of 2022, so it probably came on your bench in a dynasty league, or on waivers in redraft. If you can use it to move him, take whatever you can get.

• Marlon Humphrey changed the whole outlook of this game when he picked Russell Wilson off and took it to the house, giving him another big scoreline and cementing his place as a top-tier option at CB on the season. Humphrey is the CB4 on total points for the year, and the CB4 in PPG with 13.3 behind only Paulson Adebo (18.5 and on IR since Week 7), Keisean Nixon, and Alontae Taylor.

• Coming into Saturday, T.J. Watt's 17 sacks in 15 games against the Ravens were the most by any player in NFL history against Baltimore. He averaged 23.2 PPG in games against the Ravens and hadn’t failed to record a sack against them since Week 9 in 2019. Except he completely wet down his leg and the DL2 on the season gave you 3 pressures, no sacks or QB hits, and just 3.5 points to provide you with pure heartbreak.

  

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Browns 6, Bengals 24

• If you were starting a Bengals safety in this matchup, you might have been disappointed when the Browns announced they were benching Jameis. That would soon have abated in the game as Dorian Thompson-Robinson proved himself just as capable of throwing picks, as witnessed by solid games from Jordan Battle and Geno Stone. Battle had a solid game all around as he led all Bengals in tackles, too, with his 7 (10.9% rate) giving the second-year safety his first 20+ performance since Week 18 last season (also against Cleveland).

• Myles Garrett sent a message to the Cleveland organization on Friday that he won’t tolerate another rebuild. “I'm not trying to rebuild. I'm trying to win right now,” he said. I don’t blame him. His sack on Sunday took him to 12 on the season, giving him 5 straight seasons of 12 or more sacks and 4 straight years of at least 16.4 PPG with Miami and Baltimore left on his schedule.

  

• Trey Hendrickson collected sack number 13.5 for 2024 in Week 16, keeping him in the league lead with just 2 games to go. He’s not catching his career-high set last year of 17.5 without a monumental effort. But, he is just 18 fantasy points behind his total from last year, so while it may not be his best sack year in 2024, it could easily be his best fantasy year.

• Kris Jenkins was a name I enjoyed seeing at the top of the score sheet for this one with his second career sack and career-best 23.6 fantasy points. I remember his dad being an absolute destructive force on the inside in the early 2000s. Junior is a lot lighter than Dad at 310 pounds compared to Senior’s 360 pounds. But the pedigree is there, and Cincinnati has a lot of use for an interior playmaker. Bookmark this one.

  

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Cardinals 30, Panthers 36

• It was a quiet week for off-ball linebackers, as none across the league scored more than 23.25 points (per Big 3 Scoring). One of the highlights at the position, though, was Panthers rookie Jacoby Windmon, who was the second linebacker deployed beside Josey Jewell and was replacing fellow rookie Trevin Wallace, who hit IR recently. Windmon had 8 tackles (15.1% rate) and a sack on 76% of snaps.

• Kyzir White was the only Cardinal player to score above 14 points in what was a sorry state of affairs for Arizona all around as they were eliminated from playoff contention. White’s 21 points were his best showing all season and would have been well received as he’s been solid enough this year that no one was benching him without the deepest LB core.

• A’Shawn Robinson continues to ball after I was so dismissive of him in my Week 8 writeup. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Robinson has 5.5 sacks and is averaging 15.32 PPG in 8 games as a dominant force on the inside for Carolina’s improving defense, especially with Derrick Brown hitting IR in Week 2.

  

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Giants 7, Falcons 34

• The top scorer at the aforementioned LB position was Kaden Elliss, who is the LB4 on the season. His scoring has really elevated coming out of Atlanta’s bye as they continue to use him like New Orleans did with extensive blitzing opportunities. Elliss has 5 sacks on the season, with 4 of them coming in the last 4 games Atlanta has played since their Week 12 bye.

• Darius Muasau was a bright spot for New York in a sea of black, as the rookie once again filled in for Bobby Okereke. Muasau had 11 tackles (16.7% rate) with 1 TFL to give him a 15-point evening, which was the best performance from the young rookie since Week 1. The Giants can save $4 million this offseason if they move on from Okereke, and $9 million if they move on after 2025, so the situation is worth keeping an eye on.

• As is the theme of Week 16, it was a quiet game for the Giants’ marquee pass rushers against Atlanta rookie quarterback Michael Penix, with both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux having quiet nights. That’s business as usual for Thibodeaux — he’s been terrible this season when healthy. For Burns, he’s had a solid year, equalling his sack total from last season, in one less game played so far, all while averaging over 2.5 PPG more this season.

  

• Where New York’s pass rusher went absent after being prevalent all year, Atlanta has suddenly found one to close out the year, after having just 23 sacks in their first 11 games. In the past 4 games, Arnold Ebikite and Matthew Judon have combined for 6 sacks, with that extra pressure on Sunday leading to 2 of those 6 and Judon’s pick-six of Drew Lock.

  

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Lions 34, Bears 17

• Brian Branch is almost the last man standing when it comes to household names on this defense and he’s determined to almost single-handedly will them into the playoffs himself. Branch continued his late-season resurgence with another 23-point game on the back of 12 tackles (18.8% rate), giving him 26 tackles in the past two weeks. Earlier in the season I asked what to do with a slumping Branch. The answer was to be patient because ballers ball.

• Jack Campbell had another so-so performance on Sunday against the Bears, and it can’t help but leave me with more questions than answers. Anzalone is under contract for 2025 and was a Dan Campbell favorite before his injury. He was also the better fantasy asset, as even with the full-time green dot, Campbell has only been 70% of the production we got from Anzalone in the same role.

• Montez Sweat is wrapping up his dismal 2024 campaign in the same way he’s run the majority of it: underwhelmingly. After a monster 2023 season, with a career-high 12.5 sacks, Sweat has posted a meager 4.5 this season and has been the poster child for Chicago’s ailing defense. A painful draft pick for those who took him at the 1-2 turn as the DL13 in the IDP best balls.

  

• It started so bright for Tremaine Edmunds in 2024. He had back-to-back 20+ point games in the first 3 weeks and looked set to finally live up to his potential. Except he passed 13 points just once since Week 3, never reached 15 points again, and averaged just 8.58 PPG in his last 12 games including an 8.25-point showing this past week. After a phenomenal 16 PPG rookie season in 2018, it was all downhill from there.

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Rams 19, Jets 27

• This was a thoroughly disappointing game for IDP players. Unless you started Kam Curl (only the best ball degens would have) or Tony Adams, you weren't happy with the scoreline the guys on your roster put up.

• That’s right: Kam Curl waited until the semifinals to have just his second 20+ point game of the season, and first game over 12.5 points since Week 7. Unless you were in the deepest managed league you wouldn't have started Curl, so it was only those who took him at his S13/DB16 price tag in best ball that probably got the benefits.

• Tony Adams was having a strong afternoon thanks to an interception of Matt Stafford before he exited with an ankle injury and didn’t return. Adams has been an inconsistent play all season, never really stringing together multiple strong games, making him difficult to start. So I’m unsure how many players were upset with the strong game being cut short.

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Titans 30, Colts 38

• Another safety whose strong game was cut short by injury was Titans’ Amani Hooker, who had 5 tackles (12.5% rate) and an interception before leaving the game with a shoulder injury. Hooker is having a career year fantasy-wise on the back end with Tennessee, with 5 interceptions, and is currently the S11 on the season. The Titans play Mac Jones and the Jaguars in finals week, so here’s hoping this injury isn’t too serious.

• Jeffery Simmons is DT5 on the year in total points and DT8 in PPG. He’s also tied with Zach Allen for the least amount of sacks amongst top-10 DTs with just 5 on the season. His sack on Sunday was his first since Week 12, though he’d still averaged 12.75 PPG in those sackless games. He’s never been a massively high sack guy, his career high is 8.5, but his fantasy floor is terrific.

  

• Rookie Cedric Gray got his first run out of the season with Luke Gifford missing time, and it was everything you could ask for in terms of fantasy. His tackle rate on his 11 tackles was a spectacularly unsustainable 31.4%, as he only played 56% of snaps. His PFF grading also left a lot to be desired, his overall grade of 37.7 was the 4th worst on the team. Luckily for his prospects, 2 of the 4 below him were fellow off-ball linebackers Otis Reese and Kenneth Murray, both of who left the game early with injuries and didn’t return.

• E.J. Speed missed the game through injury and Jaylon Carlies got the start in his place. Carlies was effective with 10 tackles (16.7% rate) and 13.5 points, though his linebacking partner didn’t have the same luck. Zaire Franklin was one of just 4 healthy top-24 linebackers who didn’t score at least double-digit points in your semifinal matchup. Franklin’s 6.75 points were his second-lowest total of the season and only the 3rd time in 2024 that he didn’t reach double-digit points.

• The final member of the tackling trio also had a game that fantasy managers would rather forget. It could be nothing, but since coming out of their Week 14 bye, Nick Cross has 5 total tackles, only 1 of which he collected in Week 16. Cross had 125 tackles through his first 13 games, so this change of efficiency is a massive contradiction and may have managers who made it sheepish to start him in the championship game.

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Eagles 33, Commanders 36

• Zach Baun and Frankie Luvu can share a fantasy highlight point. The fantasy LB1 and LB2 on the season did exactly what is displayed on the box: they came out and finished as top 5 guys at the position all while giving you another 20+ point performance to juice into your lineup. They’re studs having stud seasons, so congrats if you’ve got them on your roster.

• The Cooper DeJean hype went too far. The rookie is having a strong season, impacting the pass lanes, and playing fierce run support, and yet with the preseason hubbub around him, I don’t know how you can see 2024 as anything but a bust for fantasy based on acquisition cost. DeJean was being drafted as the CB3/DB15 in best ball. He's the CB44 at just 8.8 PPG on the year, and his Week 16 outing of 10.5 points is right in line with what he’s done all year.

• Milton Williams is going to be a really interesting name in free agency this offseason. In Week 16, Williams was once again the Eagles’ highest-rated pass rusher per PFF with a pass-rush grade of 90.0, as he has been the entire season long. His PFF pass-rush grade is 90.9 for the season, he’s the only D-lineman outside of Jalen Carter with a grade of over 80. He’s third on the team for total pressures and 4th for sacks with 5 total. He’s going to get paid.

  

• Dante Fowler cooled right off after we discussed his blistering sack pace in Week 10. In fact, his sack on Sunday was his first one since we had that discussion where he’d had 8 sacks through 6 games. Between Weeks 10-15, Fowler played 4 games, had 0 sacks, and averaged 3.63 PPG, so Sunday’s 13.6 points would have been a welcome sight to those forced to start him in their matchup.

  

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Vikings 27, Seahawks 24

• It’s been a few weeks, so we’re due for some pro-AVG talk. Andrew Van Ginkel is currently tied for 6th in the NFL for sacks with his teammate Jonathan Greenard after collecting 2 against the Seahawks, notching his 7th 20+ point game of the season, and situating him as the DL1 overall heading into Week 17.

  

• Blake Cashman was cash money on Sunday, coming in with a 20-point performance you could take straight to the bank. Cashman is not just a stud IDP performer, he’s been the heart and soul of the Vikings’ defense.

• Derick Hall is another player I was victory-lapping around early in the season proclaiming the breakout. We might have to scale that back to a mini breakout because Hall went ice-cold after Week 5. His sack of Sam Darnold on Sunday was just his second since that Week 5 proclamation. Granted, it’s the perfect week for it to happen, but I just don’t know how many managed league players would have had the stones to start him.

• Jarran Reed was the top Seahawks IDP performer for the week. Why? Because fantasy football, that’s why! Reed’s 25-point game was just his 7th 25-point game in his 9 seasons of NFL football, and his first one since Week 3 of 2023. It was also just his 3rd double-digit point game of the season and the only one for more than 16.5 points. Do what you will with that information.

  

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Patriots 21, Bills 24

• Marcus Jones was sorely missed by IDP managers in this one, as the CB7 overall was forced to sit out with a hip injury sustained in the Patriots’ win over Arizona in Week 15. Jones has been a mainstay at DB and was one of the hottest corners coming into this week averaging 14.71 PPG since Week 8.

• Marte Mapu had the best game of his young career, as he was forced to shine due to the absence of playmakers such as the aforementioned Jones and Jabrill Peppers. Mapu picked off Allen on a wayward deep ball, though his decision-making to try to run it out of the endzone nearly ended in tragedy. Mapu did nearly snag a second INT on a deep crossing route from Kincaid, though he couldn’t corral it. The future is bright for the young hybrid, as his ball instincts look on point.

• Matt Milano was absent in this game so Baylon Spector was the starter at linebacker beside Terrel Bernard until he got injured. Well, that injury was worse than thought as the Bills put Spector on IR with the foot injury on Tuesday. Dorian Williams played 66% of snaps, though he struggled massively in coverage, earning just a 26.6 PFF coverage grade, leading to a 39.6 overall grade. That 39.6 was actually an upgrade from Spector and his 29.7 overall grade and 29.2 coverage grade. Get healthy, Milano. Please.

• We spoke about DL2, DL4, DL6, and DL8 struggling, so we might as well mention DL11: Greg Rousseau. His struggle wasn’t as prominent, as a 10-point game won’t kill you. It’s the benchmark for an OK performance, actually. But his single pressure on the game pointed towards the fact that he never even really looked like getting you that sack you needed to help win your all-important matchup.

  

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Jaguars 14, Raiders 19

• This game was the real-life equivalent of the fantasy toilet bowl. It was just bad football all around and neither team really had anything to play for.

• Former Jags first-round pick K'Lavon Chaisson got spicy in his revenge game against his old club. Chaisson’s sack of Mac Jones gave him his 4th on the season, which ironically is more than he ever had in a single season in 4 years in Jacksonville. It’s also his 3rd in 4 games and gives him an average of 16.74 PPG since Week 13.

  

• It was another lukewarm performance for Foyesade Oluokun. Man, Foye’s fall from the LB1 has been meteoric this season. Yes, he’s been injury-hampered, and yes, he’s been schemed off the field by the Jags DC playing just 87% of snaps this year. But how much of that is due to what they’re seeing in practice? I know Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco aren’t looking at Roquan, Baun, and Warner each week in practice going: “You know what I need less of this week? That guy on the field.”

• This Jacksonville linebacker situation just makes me sad. Devin Lloyd at one point was seen as a top-8 dynasty linebacker. Now he’ll be lucky to get his 5th-year option picked up and is probably being considered by those same dynasty teams that loved him as a possible cut candidate for their 2025 rookie class. It's confusing as hell. Lloyd is the 2nd highest-graded player on the Jaguars (minimum 60% of snaps) per PFF and is head and shoulders above Chad Muma, Ventrell Miller, and Yasir Abdullah, yet they still only want to play him 79% of the time.

• Isaiah Pola-Mao was the Raiders’ top defensive scorer on Sunday thanks to 9 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. His 19-point performance was the third-best of his 3-year career and he’s played at least 95% of snaps since Week 4. Though outside of a couple of ceiling games in Weeks 4 and 16, he’s averaged just 6.73 PPG since becoming a starter.

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49ers 17, Dolphins 29

• Jordyn Brooks left Sunday’s game briefly and was tagged with a questionable tag, but he was able to return later in the game and complete it. Brooks himself indicated in a Tuesday web conference with reporters that he was feeling good and the injuries were not serious so we should be wheels up for finals week after another strong 17+ point performance in Week 16.

• Chop Robinson has 2 games to make his case for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Thanks to 2.5 sacks in his past 2 games he’s up to 6 on the season, and he finishes up with Cleveland in fantasy championship week and the Jets in Week 18. Fire him up!

  

• Nick Bosa returned to the field last week from a 3-week absence due to an oblique injury, but he didn’t return to form fantasy. Bosa had 4 sacks in the 4 games leading up to his injury and was finally finding his stride for 2024. However, since returning, he’s averaged 8.5 PPG and had 8 pressures in 2 games, just was unable to get home on the QB and it might have cost you it all.

  

• Dre Greenlaw started in the Dolphins matchup and played just 4 snaps before a calf injury forced him from the field. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that shutting down Greenlaw would be a possibility as the team waits for the results of an MRI. DeVondre Campbell is on the naughty list, and Dee Winters played well putting up 13 points (until he got injured too). Winters is considered to be day-to-day, but if you’re trying to figure out who to play, the green dot king has you covered in his weekly article right here.

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Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 26

• Is there an EDGE/DL playing better football than Micah Parsons right now? He’s made himself a hell of a lot of money this season. (Remember that Bosa got a 5-year, $170 million deal at the beginning of 2024). After starting slow and being the topic of many people trying to sell based on the name value, Parsons has 8.5 of his 9.5 sacks since Week 10. The Cowboys are now out of playoff contention, so they might shut it down. If they don’t, Parsons could get Kenny Pickett in championship week.

  

• Jourdan Lewis had a hell of an interception of Baker Mayfield on Sunday night. It gave him a 22-point game on the night to go with his 18-point outing in Week 15. On a counter note, that’s 2 out of the 3 times he’s gone over 15 PPG in the past 3 seasons.

• Christian Izien filled in for the still-injured Antoine Winfield Jr. and had 13 tackles on the night (23.2% rate). Though I don’t know if anyone benefitted from the 14-point game. Izien had played at least 83% of snaps in every game since Week 12 and had averaged 5.25 PPG before this week, helping absolutely 0 people. If Winfield is back this week though, I’m firing him up regardless.

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Saints 0, Packers 34

• Have you ever heard of Zayne Anderson? Because I haven’t, yet he played 48 snaps last night, picked off Spencer Rattler, and was the second-highest IDP scorer in the game last night from either team.

• I almost hope Demario Davis retires at the end of this year because his end-of-year IDP play has been reminiscent of a farewell tour. I touched on it last week, but his quality play continued, as he led the Saints in tackles with 10 (14.5% rate), trailed only Khalen Saunders in IDP points scored against the Packers by 1 point, and was the 3rd highest-graded player on the Saints defense with an overall PFF grade of 69.2, behind Saunders and safety Will Harris.

• Speaking of Khalen Saunders — the man that color commentators love to remind us is the brother to one of Taylor Swift’s backup dancers — the big man put up 16.5 points last night thanks to 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, and 2 PDs giving him his 4th game of 15+ points on the season. It’s low-hanging fruit to mention the 324-pound interior lineman is feast or famine. So you’re not starting him, but I felt like he deserved some attention for his on-field play (not just who he’s related to).

• Keisean Nixon, take a bow. He’s been a true difference-maker at the position. Especially in the past 4 weeks where he’s averaged 20.88 PPG, and unlike others, has lived up to his draft hype. Also, this man is the reason I write today from a place of joy, and not sadness as his strip-sack was the difference between me missing the final and making it. I know my opponent reads this column, too. So… suck it!

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