IDP Reality Check: 2024 Season Recap
Which IDP performances were reality and which were fantasy this past season?
Freddy Mercury once famously asked:
Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality…
Fifty years after Mercury uttered this famous refrain, we’re left with the same question regarding the production of some of the top IDPs in 2024: whose production was reality and whose stats were purely a fantasy? Let’s dive into it.
Nolan Smith, EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles
Stats: 39 tackles, 6.5 sacks
Big 3 Scoring: 8.8 PPG/DL63 finish
Nolan Smith didn’t play much as a rookie considering the EDGE logjam for the Eagles. His sophomore year got off to an inconspicuous start with the mega-contract lobbed toward Bryce Huff. Then Smith recorded just 3 pressures in his first 4 games, averaged 2.2 fantasy points per game, and played less than 45% of the snaps.
After the bye week, injuries to Brandon Graham and poor play from Huff allowed Smith to thrive down the stretch. In the last 7 games of the regular season (not counting Week 18), he averaged 74% of the snaps and recorded 4 sacks.
From Week 6 on, he averaged 10.8 fantasy points/game and generated multiple pressures in 8 games, including 6 straight to close out the season, which resulted in a 12.9% pressure rate. Smith apparently saved his best for the playoffs, as he’s generating a 12.1% pressure rate and has 4 sacks.
I don’t think his play is smoke and mirrors, as you’ve seen continuous improvement and development throughout the season in Vic Fangio’s defense. Smith is going to be a popular breakout candidate in 2025 and I’ll be on board.
Verdict: Reality
Nick Bolton, LB, Kansas City
Stats: 106 tackles, 3 sacks
Big 3 Scoring: 13.8 PPG/LB15
Nick Bolton dealt with injuries during the 2023 season; however, there was optimism he’d return closer to his 2022 form heading into 2024. I shared that optimism, though I didn’t have him projected as an LB1 (143 tackles, 1,000+ snaps, LB14 finish).
In his 8 games in 2023, Bolton averaged 7.5 tackles/game and a 13.5% tackle rate. It seemed reasonable that Bolton could maintain that tackle efficiency heading into 2024, but instead, his tackles per game dipped to 6.6, and his tackle efficiency fell to a paltry 11.3%. He played 13 more snaps on the edge in 2024 than he did in 2023, but had 6 tackles with those snaps, so I don’t think the pass-rush snaps had a significant impact on his tackle production. He also recorded a career-high 3 sacks in 2024, which helped offset the lackluster tackle numbers en route to an LB15 finish.
Looking at the All-22, Bolton was targeted more by blockers and more plays flowed away from him. He missed 19 tackle attempts, a career-high. The emergence of Drue Tranquill ate into his tackle share and Steve Spagnuolo’s decreased use of dime/single-LB also played a role in Bolton’s decreased tackle production.
Nick Bolton is slated for free agency, so he could end up with a new team. Tranquill is also an FA, so if Bolton returns, Tranquill could be gone. Spagnuolo is set to return as DC, but we’ll see what happens if he’s considered for the New Orleans job or if he steps aside should KC three-peat. Whatever happens, I think Bolton will come at a discount in 2025 and his tackle rate should be closer to 2023 than 2024.
That’s what feels like “fantasy” to me with Bolton’s 2024 season. In his first two years, he recorded a 16.8% tackle rate. Do I think that’s happening again? No, but I do expect him to be better than 11.3%. Probably a 13.5-13.7% rate and another LB2 finish.
Verdict: Fantasy
Nik Bonitto, EDGE, Denver Broncos
Stats: 48 tackles/13.5 sacks
Big 3 Scoring: 16.6 PPG/DL4
The Broncos had an abundance of pass rush talent and even acquired John Franklin-Meyers ahead of the season, so it was fair to question who would get snaps amongst this group. Turns out, it was Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto at EDGE (although Bonitto only played 61% of snaps and was mostly in on pass-rush situations).
Bonitto made the most of those snaps on his way to a breakout season. He had the quickest pass-rush get off along Denver’s DL (0.76 seconds) and an 18.3% win rate. His overall pass rush metrics were impressive, as he only had two games of fewer than 2 pressures, and those were in the first two weeks of the season. He had 12 games of 3+ pressures and generated a 14% pressure rate. So, yeah, Bonitto is good.
It’s smart to fade outlier sack production, so I’m not calling for another top 5 DL finish in 2025 for Bonitto. But he’s an efficient edge rusher (who I hope stays around 60% of snaps) that I’m fine targeting as my DL2 in drafts this offseason.
Verdict: Reality
Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Stats: 150 tackles, 3.5 sacks
Big 3 Scoring: 16.7 PPG/LB2
Can I label Zack Baun as a “faction?” Not in the vain of the nWo or Nation of Domination, but as a tweener. I’m caught between the moon and New York City with Baun. (I bet you weren’t expecting a Christoper Cross reference.)
There was clear offseason hype on Baun from the coaching staff, especially Vic Fangio. There was also similar hype for Devin White… and, well, we saw how that went. Now, I projected Baun for a career-high in snaps (786) and tackles (82). I didn’t see him doubling his career output in one season, though.
This is what happens when a player fits a scheme and is given the chance to earn a role. Much like Dennis Rodman with the Bulls, Baun fit Fangio’s scheme like a glove. He was disciplined with his assignments and always kept his eyes up.
The results? Baun racked up 90+ solo tackles and a 16.1% tackle rate.
I don’t think there will be a discount on Baun heading into 2025, so you’ll probably be buying high or at cost. Baun is looking to cash in on his All-Pro season, so will Philadelphia be willing to pay on their diamond in the rough? I’m not willing to gamble on his 2024 and I view his season more in the light of Rashaan Evans’s 2022 season or Denzel Perryman in 2021. Even if he returns to the Eagles, I’m not expecting similar results. (And, yes, I fully expect to be receipted for the take).
Verdict: Fantasy
Bobby Okereke, LB, New York Giants
Stats: 93 tackles, 2 sacks
Big 3 Scoring: 12.97 PPG/LB41
Bobby Okereke was always a smart fade coming off a season in which he played 100% of snaps and finished as LB1. Before getting knocked out in Week 13, his snap share was already dipping below 100%. That’s just such a difficult pace to maintain.
We also how Shane Bowen’s scheme affected Okereke’s production. Wink Martindale had Okereke flying around making tackles. Bowen ran a lighter box and had the front line clog up the line of scrimmage (which benefitted Dexter Lawrence).
Like in 2023, Micah McFadden was a familiar presence alongside Okereke, but the real difference-maker was the emergence of Tyler Nubin, who averaged 7.46 TPG, just a shade under Okereke’s 7.75 TPG (down 1 tackle per game from 2023).
With Bowen still in town as the DC and Nubin on the rise, I think Okereke’s days as an elite tackle are an outlier, relegated to 2023. He’ll finish better than LB41 in 2025 if he plays a full season, but around 13 PPG feels right (making him a mid-tier LB2).
Verdict: Reality
Nick Cross, S, Indianapolis Colts
Stats: 145 tackles/3 INTs
Big 3 Scoring: 13.1 PPG/DB5
There are only a handful of DBs I’d reach on for consistent scoring.
Nick Cross isn’t going to be one of them.
Cross finally had a three-down role in 2024, appearing in 1,155 snaps. My projection was way off, as I had him for 79 tackles in a near full-time role (925 snaps). I didn’t project him as the line of scrimmage safety, as he played nearly 64% of his snaps near the LOS with a 42% box rate. Sixty-three of his tackles were recorded from the LB/slot position, accounting for 43% of his tackle production.
I think his production is a total fabrication and not repeatable.
You could have convinced me if the Colts had kept Gus Bradley as their DC. Bradley utilized Cross to perfection, which allowed him to record a career-high 145 tackles. New DC, Lou Anarumo, emphasizes versatility and will disguise his coverages, frequently using two-high looks, so I’m not expecting similar box usage.
I will probably have 0 shares of Nick Cross in 2025—unless everyone else passes on him and I can get him as my DB3 a few rounds past ADP.
Verdict: Fantasy
Jack Campbell, LB, Detroit Lions
Stats: 125 tackles/1.5 sacks
Big 3 Scoring: 11 PPG/LB28
Not only do I expect this kind of production from Jack Campbell going forward, but I expect more. Before the season kicked off, Campbell was projected to take over the green dot; however, as many of us expected, Alex Anzalone remained the playcaller. In the first six weeks of the season, Campbell was averaging a 74% usage rate—so not quite a full-time role. He averaged 6.3 tackles/game during that span.
Anzalone missed 6 out of the Lions’ final 7 games, which allowed Campbell to shine as a playcaller and tackler. When seeing 90% or more of the snaps, Campbell averaged 8.5 tackles/game. He came close to my projected tackle total (134) and improved all of his PFF grades: 77.4 overall, 81.5 run defense, 81.9 tackling, and 72.2 coverage.
Another source of optimism is that during their Divisional Round game, even with Anzalone playing a full-time role, Campbell wore the dot.
Over his first two seasons, he’s produced a 14% tackle rate. I envision a three-down role in 2025 and I’ll be targeting him as an LB1/2.
Verdict: Reality
Leonard Williams, IDL, Seattle Seahawks
Stats: 64 tackles/11 sacks
Big 3 Scoring:16.9 PPG/DL6
Leonard Williams enjoyed a career year in Seattle, and after averaging 4.8 sacks/game over the last 3 seasons, I didn’t expect Williams to explode for his highest sack output since 2020. Williams generated nearly identical pressures in 2023 but converted his sacks at a higher rate in 2024: 2.5%. Again, his highest since 2020. What changed?
This year, when Williams played on the edge, he generated a higher pressure rate compared to being deployed as an IDL, but he had a higher sack rate as an interior defender, which is going to be unsustainable. Not only that, the number of multi-sack games going into 2025 is going to be unsustainable.
He was boom or bust all season and had 5 games with multiple sacks. Williams produced more QB hits (15) and nearly doubled his TFLs from 2023 (16), so he was boosted by other types of big plays this season in addition to his sacks.
I had reasonable projections on him for 2024: 59 tackles, 4.3 sacks, and 13 QB hits. But I saw no indicators of a sack explosion. Like running backs with huge TD numbers, there’s variance at the DL position and Williams will be due for some regression. I will not be overpaying for a repeat in 2025 as enters his age 31 season.
Verdict: Fantasy
Kyle Dugger, S, New England Patriots
Stats: 79 tackles/1 sack/1 FF
Big 3 Scoring:10.7/DB68
I’ll always have a soft spot for Kyle Dugger and he will always be a DB target.
Although he finished as the DB68, he averaged 10.7 points/game, which would’ve slotted him as a high-end S2 had he played a full season. He missed 4 games due to a misdiagnosed high-ankle sprain (that he had surgery on this month), but even so, from Week 11 on, he had 4 games of 12+ fantasy points. Lastly, over the final four weeks, Dugger averaged 7.3 tackles/game (a 12.1% tackle rate).
Dugger saw a 48% decrease in slot snaps from 2023 to 2024, and a 25% decrease in box snaps as well, meaning he had fewer opportunities near the LOS.
However, I think new defensive coordinator Terrell Williams will deploy Dugger more in the box, as I think his physicality and smarts fit Williams’ scheme. Dugger is good at stopping the run, which has also been a cornerstone in a Mike Vrabel defense.
Injuries derailed Dugger’s 2024 campaign, but when you dig a little deeper, there’s reason to be optimistic. What we saw last season on a per-game basis was reality in so much as I think it’s the floor for what you can expect moving forward. I’ll continue to target Dugger, especially since he’ll likely be a value in drafts.
Verdict: Reality
Germaine Pratt, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
Stats: 143 tackles/2 INT
Big 3 Scoring: 13.2 PPG/LB14
I think Pratt could be overvalued heading into the 2025 season based on how he finished in 2024. Pratt enjoyed a career-high in tackles (143) and snaps (1,075), which resulted in a 95% usage rate in Cincinnati’s defense. Lou Anarumo’s defense deployed fewer dime/single-LB packages, so although Pratt ended up playing in 100% of the snaps in the final 6 games of the season due to Logan Wilson’s injury, he was already a three-down LB playing alongside Wilson before the injury.
Wilson and Pratt were both tackle machines throughout the season. However, I think there’s a cause for concern with Pratt’s tackle volume. Before Wilson’s injury, Pratt was averaging 8.8 tackles/game. Post-Wilson injury, Pratt averaged 7.7 tackles/game, which was boosted by a 13-tackle effort in Week 13. Part of that was Pratt wearing the dot, calling the plays, and getting his teammates in position and alignment.
The other part was that Akeem Davis-Gaither emerged as a solid tackler in the final 6 games of the season and ate into Pratt’s tackle share. ADG ended up wearing the dot in the final two weeks, and Pratt recorded an 8-tackle game in one of those games.
I think Pratt’s production from the 2023 season is what to expect in 2025: 118 tackles, 11.2 PPG, and an LB28 finish. Pratt could be a cap casualty, but I expect him to be back in Cincinnati and I’d target him more as an LB3 than an elite LB1/2.
Verdict: Fantasy
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