Like the Million Dollar Man says, “Everyone has a price.” Yes, that’s true. If you were to offer me a certain sum of money, I’d change allegiances from my favorite football team. It might take a little less now than at earlier points in history.
These guys have a price, but at their current price, I’m heading to the Dollar Store to buy a similar product for less. I’m not paying a premium.
These are the IDPs I’m currently passing on at their current ADP.
LB CJ Allen, Indianapolis Colts
Whenever the term “rotation” enters the fantasy lexicon, it has me running for the hills. That’s what could be on the horizon for the Indianapolis Colts’ linebacker group.
Allen’s hamstring injury curbed his development and my enthusiasm for any hope for a full-time role. He’s already lost the opportunity at the green dot, and now a rotation has emerged among Akeem Davis-Gaither, Jaylon Carlies, Bryce Boettcher, and Allen.
Allen made his preseason debut in Week 2 of the preseason, and the PFF grades weren’t favorable, especially in coverage. Now, it was just 18 snaps, and he was solid against the run; there’s obvious room for improvement in coverage.
Now, all spots are open for a rotation, and I’m not buying Allen at cost as an LB2 in redraft.
LB Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders
I’m a fan of Styles’ traits and athleticism, and I love his potential role and usage in Washington’s defense. The draft capital will, more than likely, have him on the field immediately.
I don’t like where he’s being drafted. In MFL ADP, he’s being drafted as the LB4, and according to The IDP Show's best-ball ADP, he’s the LB11.
Both prices are too rich for my blood. I don’t have a strong feeling or conviction for these rookie LBs the way I did for Carson Schwesinger last season.
Styles is still adapting to the speed of the NFL, and there are linebackers within his range that I’d rather draft, including Jamien Sherwood, Quay Walker, and Nate Landman.
LB T.J. Edwards, Chicago Bears
Edwards is recovering from an injury suffered in the team’s wild card game, and while the news is good and he’s cleared, I think I’m off him as an IDP linebacker.
I do think he’s cleared, but he’s just getting back to practice and getting his footing under him. He’s entering his age-30 season, and this injury could be the potential start of his decline.
D’Marco Jackson has proven he can handle the green dot responsibilities and has graded as Chicago’s best defensive player through two preseason games. The All-22 confirms that, and he has a 20.6% tackle rate.
Edwards has been a dependable IDP linebacker over the last several seasons, recording 640 tackles over the last five seasons, but I’m not sure I want to be in on him when the floor collapses.
ED Brian Burns, New York Giants
Brian Burns just had a career year, and I’m not buying it going into 2026.
15 sacks will have him drafted like a locked-in DL1. He is, on the surface, but strip away the layers, and like Newman, you might have pure evil. Strip away the sack total (yes, I know — that’s the whole game in IDP) and look under the hood, and it’s ugly. Think Jerry’s two-faced date he took to George’s for Festivus. Look at it in a certain light.
His win rate got cut nearly in half: 14.5% in 2024 down to 7.3% in 2025. His true pass-set win rate, the metric that tells you how he’s winning one-on-one against the tackle, fell off a cliff too, from 18.2% to 9.1%. That’s not a guy improving. That’s a guy who got worse at rushing the passer and got paid for it anyway.
So how does a declining rusher post 15 sacks?
A 28.3% sack-to-pressure conversion rate. Easily a career high, nearly double his 2024 mark. He didn’t generate more pressure. He didn’t win more reps. He just finished a higher percentage of the pressures he already had. The box score is lying to you.
I’m not touching Burns as a premium 2026 pick. The name and the sack total will have him flying off the board early, but the tape says this was his worst season as a pass rusher in three years. I’ll draft guys like Nik Bonitto, Danielle Hunter, and Jared Verse.
ED Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers
I like Tuli, I really do. I wish he wouldn’t have had such a big season. His numbers have him drafted as a top-10/15 edge, and I’m still not sure he’s there.
The volume looks good on paper. He’s out there for almost every passing snap (89.7% pass-rush rate) and turned that into 13 sacks and 75 total pressures. That’s real production. But volume isn’t the same thing as winning your rep, and his efficiency numbers still put him a tier below the guys actually populating the top of this position.
His pass rush win rate sits at 12.3%. His true pass-set win rate, meaning when it’s just him against the tackle with no help coming, is 17.8%. Compare that to the names going right around him:
Myles Garrett 32.7%
Will Anderson 32.6%
Aidan Hutchinson at 27.0%
Josh Hines-Allen at 30.9%.
Unlike Burns, who padded a down year with a career-high conversion rate, Tuli’s sack total tracks with real pressure created. The production is earned. The problem is that the underlying efficiency still isn’t elite, and that’s what ED16 pricing assumes.
The volume keeps him relevant and makes him a safer floor play than a lot of names in this range. I’ll take guys like Dallas Turner, Chop Robinson, and Jaelan Phillips.
ED Jonathan Greenard, Philadelphia Eagles
With Greenard, it’s not the production, but now the injury that has me fading him at his ADP.
Greenard is the ED21 right now and, on the surface, seems like a fair price.
He’s dealing with a pectoral injury that has caused him to miss most of training camp, and it seems the Eagles are a bit hush on his status for the beginning of the season. The messaging went from not being concerned to may not be ready for the start of the season. Like the street fight in Anchorman, that really got out of hand fast.
In a best ball format, I want ceiling potential every week, and I don’t want to risk a 0 from a premium pick. I’d rather take a linebacker like Quay Walker or Devin Lloyd. If I’m targeting edge rusher, I prefer someone like George Karlaftis, Zach Allen, or Chop Robinson (can you tell I like Chop?).
CB Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
I guess I’ve always had a love/hate relationship with Hunter. Love his talent, hate how overvalued he is.
I’m sure Hunter is going to get some offensive snaps, but how many? If you’ve paid attention to the position tracker, Hunter is now down to 0 offensive snaps. I know it’s camp, but it’s not like their practices are being spied on.
If Hunter only gets a few WR snaps, I think his IDP ceiling is lowered significantly. All of a sudden, there are quite a few mouths to feed. Brian Thomas, Parker Washington (who has become the next coming of Jerry Rice), and Jakobi Meyers. He’s listed as the WR4 right now.
He’s the DB1, and while his ADP has risen slightly, I’m not paying that price for Hunter.
S Caleb Downs, Dallas Cowboys
Downs was the consensus top rookie DB in IDP. The keyword being ‘rookie’. He has yet to take an NFL snap and is being drafted as a top DB.
While I don’t think this usage will spill into the regular season, the last time we saw Downs in a game, he played his snaps deep. Now, I see from Cowboys beat writers that their base defense is 4 DBs and 5 DL. Once again, I don’t see that as the norm, but eyebrows are raised like The Rock’s.
Downs is being drafted as the DB6, ahead of known commodities like Budda Baker, Tre’von Moehrig, Chamarri Conner (who’s still being disrespected) and Xavier Watts.
Downs’ ADP is 88. You can get another favorite of mine, Kevin Winston, 50 spots later.
S Dillon Thieneman, Chicago Bears
I don’t mean to be picking on the rookies, but I think we have to. We have yet to see them in a game and how they’ll be used, but we’re spending premium picks on them.
Through two preseason games, the usage looks good. He’s being used around the line of scrimmage on 60% of the snaps. That’s a nice number.
In Week 1, it was 36%, and it then increased to 71% in Week 2. We’re dealing with small samples, but at least that gives us a good idea of how he’ll be deployed.
The last rookie to finish among the top-5 DBs in scoring was Jalen Pitre, and he exploded to a DB1 finish. Here’s the top rookie DB finishes over the last five seasons:
Nick Emmanwori (DB28)
Tyler Nubin (DB31)
Tyrique Stevenson (DB32)
Jalen Pitre (DB1)
Pat Surtain (DB60)
Pitre is the outlier here. Once again, I’ll go with proven commodities, even given the variance in the DB position.
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Guess I am screwed with CJ Allen drafting him in the 3rd round of my defensive draft :-(. Hopefully he turns his crap around. Luckily I did not pay too much to get Dillon Thieneman, getting him in the 10th.