IDP Deep Dive: Trenton Simpson
Jase Abbey looks at the 2024 outlook for the 2nd-year Baltimore LB.
Earlier this week, we posted a poll on X asking IDP managers which of four players to feature in a new deep-dive article. The people have spoken, and the player nominated for our debut feature is Baltimore Ravens linebacker Trenton Simpson! In this article — the first in an ongoing series — we’ll look at Simpson’s performance in 2023, his outlook for 2024, and any concerns we have for his future as an IDP asset.
2023 Review
The Ravens are notorious for addressing their roster needs well before they become glaring issues, and that’s precisely what they did when they drafted Simpson in the third round of the 2023 draft. Draft analysts widely acknowledged at the time that the Clemson product was a better athlete than an NFL-ready linebacker. Still, the Ravens could not overlook the incredible upside and value and spent the 86th overall pick on a player with the physical tools to develop into an impact player.
Some draft analysts suggested Simpson could earn a role in 2023 alongside Roquan Smith. Those expectations overlooked three key facts:
This is the Ravens, who typically take a long-term view with their draft selections.
Secondly, Patrick Queen had demonstrated improvement and deserved to start.
Almost all linebackers fail to earn significant snaps in their rookie season; four linebackers were taken ahead of Simpson in the NFL draft, and none of them ranked among the top 50 players at the position in snap volume.
Predictably, Simpson’s 2023 was one to forget from a fantasy standpoint. He played almost exclusively on special teams, suffered a concussion in Week 11, and only saw meaningful defensive snaps in Week 18 vs. the Steelers when the Ravens had already clinched home-field advantage, and Smith and Malik Harrison were inactive. It’s foolish to place too much stock in such a tiny sample size, but given the absence of a body of work to draw from, we would be remiss not to mention that Simpson excelled in that game. Despite playing only 26 snaps, the then 22-year-old produced five tackles and a sack and held his own on passing downs.
2024 Outlook
Simpson has been gathering steam as a popular breakout candidate during the offseason, and for good reason. Queen, whose fifth-year option was declined by the Baltimore Ravens in 2023, left in free agency to join division rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers.
It’s no secret that linebacker production is heavily reliant upon snap volume. In that sense, Queen’s departure created a huge void. He played 1,120 snaps last season, the fourth-most among all off-ball linebackers.
The Ravens barely addressed the linebacker position in free agency or the 2024 NFL draft. Chris Board returned to the team on a one-year deal after spending two seasons elsewhere, but his involvement will be limited to special teams. The team signed Malik Harrison to an extension, and he could challenge for a more significant role on defense, especially on early downs. However, crucially, neither of those players possesses Simpson’s potential ceiling.
You don’t have to look hard to find clues for how the Ravens’ organization views Simpson. Ravens’ general manager Eric DaCosta lauded his progression when speaking to NFL media ahead of the 2024 draft:
“I think Trenton is going to have a great season. He has a great attitude. I think he grew as much as anybody this year. When he played on defense, he made some plays late in the year. [He] has a lot of talent. He’s as talented as any inside linebacker in this year’s Draft class, for sure, so I’m excited about him.”
Ravens’ linebacker Roquan Smith sounded similarly enamored with Simpson’s work ethic and development when speaking with the media on the first day of training camp:
“The guy works his tail off like no other. [He’s] always trying to find ways to get better, and you can see in day-in and day-out, his approach to the game, his extra meeting time, and the guy is probably one of the most athletic people on the team, if not [the most]. [He] jumps out of the gym, [has] 4.3 [40-yard dash] speed; [he] can do everything. With more reps and him putting it all together, I think the guy really has a chance to be special.”
Head coach John Harbaugh discussed Simpson’s attention to detail at the start of minicamp:
“Trenton is a quick learner – something even as simple as punt protection footwork. He played a little bit as a rookie; the first couple of days of the Phase Two stuff, he really didn't look very good with the footwork. Like everything else, we're chasing perfection. We're confronting every issue. We confronted the punt footwork, and now he looks fantastic. He's perfect in what he's doing out there… The next step will be training camp, preseason games, and on from there.”
We tend to downplay offseason speak from management, teammates, and coaches, but when talent meets opportunity, as in Simpson’s case, it’s encouraging to hear these plaudits.
The 2023 Raven’s defense was one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. As the architect behind that defense, Mike Macdonald was always likely to find a head coaching role elsewhere, and the Seattle Seahawks were the grateful recipients of his services. Any time we see a defensive coordinator change, it makes us wary about the changes they intend to implement. In Simpson’s case, the concern was that the Ravens may no longer utilize two full-time linebackers.
The appointment of Zach Orr eases those fears. Orr served as the inside linebackers coach under McDonald for the last two seasons and has spent six of the previous seven seasons on the Ravens staff in one role or another. As one of the people who helped build the defense into what it has become, and as the second-youngest defensive coordinator in the league, he will undoubtedly lean on the same principles instilled by McDonald. IDP managers should expect subtle changes as Orr seeks to put his stamp on the defense, but wholesale changes are unlikely, considering how effective this Ravens unit was in 2023. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!
The versatility Simpson demonstrated during his college career should serve him well in this scheme. The Ravens are no strangers to blitzing their linebackers, and Simpson excelled in that area in three years at Clemson, producing an impressive 25.5% pressure rate and 11 sacks. We saw a glimpse of what he’s capable of in that sense at the NFL level last season, and the potential for big plays should whet the appetite of Simpson’s IDP managers.
It’s fashionable to suggest that sophomore players thrust into a more significant role are essentially in their rookie year if they barely played in their rookie season. That’s a reductive view. Simpson clearly learned a great deal during his rookie season, and as DaCosta, Smith, and Harbaugh alluded to, the youngster is attacking year two like a man possessed. Furthermore, the importance of the opportunity to learn from and under Smith — arguably the best linebacker in the league — should not be understated.
Concerns
We should expect the kind of inconsistency from Simpson that comes with adapting to the speed and rigors of the NFL. My concerns are threefold:
Q: How quickly can Simpson overcome what will obviously be a tough learning curve in pass coverage? Almost every young linebacker struggles in this area, and if Simpson is to be trusted in an every-down role, he must prove he is not a liability on obvious passing downs.
A: Simpson was inconsistent in pass coverage during his time at Clemson, especially in zone defense. However, he possesses the athleticism to become an asset in this area if he can demonstrate improvement in diagnosing plays more effectively.
Q: Will his lightweight frame make it difficult for him to disengage from blocks?
A: Simpson claims to have bulked up, but adding weight is only a piece of the puzzle.
Q: Can Simpson generate a superior tackle efficiency rate than Queen? In 2023, Queen ranked 76 out of 91 linebackers in tackle rate.
A: Only time will tell. Tackle rate can fluctuate from season to season, and many variables can influence this statistic. The only certainty is that if Simpson earns and retains an every-down role, it will mitigate poor tackling efficiency, as it did for Queen. It’s tempting to point to Queen’s 15.1% missed tackle rate — which ranked 20th out of 91 linebackers — as a reason for optimism, but I suspect Simpson may also struggle in that respect, at least initially.
Conclusion
I’m encouraged by what I saw from Simpson in college, and I believe he’s ready to take on a significant role in the heart of the Ravens’ defense. I expect some early struggles and inconsistency at times. Still, I’m confident Simpson has the potential to overcome those challenges and become a valuable IDP asset for many years.
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