IDP Deep Dive: Boye Mafe
How will a new head coach, defensive coordinator, and the return of Uchenna Nwosu affect Boye Mafe in 2024?
Earlier this week, we posted a poll on X asking IDP managers which of four players to feature in our new deep-dive article series. The people have spoken, and the player nominated for our third feature is Seattle Seahawks edge rusher Boye Mafe!
In this article, we’ll look at Mafe’s performance in 2023, his outlook for 2024, and any concerns we have for his future as an IDP asset.
Mafe’s Career So Far
Mafe entered the league as an accomplished pass rusher who had demonstrated steady improvement in his four years with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Many knocked the third-team All-Big Ten honors recipient for his lack of length and deficiencies in run defense. Still, the Seattle Seahawks saw enough potential to justify investing the 40th overall selection in the then 23-year-old, undoubtedly tempted by his athletic profile and performance at the Senior Bowl, where he earned National Player of the Game honors.
Initially, Mafe competed for playing time with Darrell Taylor and new signing Uchenna Nwosu. He watched on as the third man in the edge rotation as the two players ahead of him recorded 20 sacks between them. Despite playing only 423 defensive snaps, even those with modest initial expectations for Mafe’s rookie season would have to admit his 2022 was disappointing as he finished with only three sacks, ten pressures, and a derisory 5.3% pressure rate.
Rookie edge rushers rarely make a significant impact in year one, but there wasn’t much about Mafe to get excited about heading into last season. Even after Pete Carroll described him as “the most improved guy from last year” in August 2023, cynical IDP managers could be forgiven for reserving judgment. However, Carroll’s assessment proved accurate, as Mafe exploded out of the gate in 2023 with seven sacks in his first eight games. His production during this period offered hope that the Seahawks’ edge rushers might be in good shape even after losing Nwosu to a season-ending pectoral injury in Week 7.
Unfortunately for Carroll and Co., Mafe could not capitalize on his hot start. He recorded only two sacks in the last eight games of the season, and his win rate deteriorated from an average of 23.1% to only 16.9% from Week 11 onwards. Even so, it’s an oversimplification to label his season as a tale of two halves.
Any expectations that Mafe could sustain his early 23.3% season sack rate over the entire season were unrealistic. Furthermore, his pressure rate (hits, hurries, and sacks combined) also remained relatively constant throughout. He recorded a rate of 13.3% in his first eight games and 12.8% pressure in his last ten. He finished the year ranked a respectable 36th out of 125 edge rushers in the league in pressure rate.
The takeaway? Mafe’s production may have dropped off a cliff, but his performance didn’t deteriorate nearly as much as the raw numbers suggest. A more accurate assessment is that he was unfortunate not to convert pressures into sacks in the second half of the season, considering how consistently disruptive he continued to be.
2024 Outlook
Nwosu’s return to the lineup may mean fewer opportunities for other edge rushers on the roster. Still, Mafe was the clear favored option alongside Nwosu in the early part of the season, and by the end of the year, his snap share dwarfed that of Darrell Taylor and Derick Hall. And, as an ascending talent and the Seahawks' best pass rusher in 2023, his role is secure. Granted, new head coach Mike Mcdonald and defensive coordinator Aden Durde may usher in changes in the rotation among the edge rusher personnel, and there has been talk about moving players around on the defensive line more in 2024. Still, it bodes well that the Baltimore Ravens led the league in pressures under McDonald. It also doesn’t hurt that Durde served as the defensive line coach of a dominant Cowboys edge rusher unit for the last two years.
It’s tempting and presumptuous to assume young NFL players will demonstrate steady improvement as they continue to develop their craft. But it’s not a reach to point out that it is well within Mafe’s range of outcomes to become a more accomplished and productive pass rusher in his third season. He has spoken of how much he likes the new defense, and while there’s a healthy degree of cynicism among IDP managers about offseason speak, it certainly doesn’t hurt to hear positive news.
Conclusion
Any suggestions that Mafe struggled down the stretch in 2023 are incorrect. He consistently brought pressure at an above-average rate, and when we review his performance over the season in its entirety, it’s clear he demonstrated glimpses of the talented player the Seahawks envisioned when they selected him in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. His modest tackle floor may hurt his stock in tackle-heavy IDP scoring formats, but as a pure pass rusher, it’s exciting to wonder what he’s capable of when playing alongside a healthy Nwosu.
Mafe is currently going as the EDGE30 in The IDP Show's best ball drafts with an ADP of 69.4, sandwiched between rookies Jared Verse and Dallas Turner. For dynasty purposes, we rank him one spot ahead of his teammate Nwosu as the EDGE25. That value feels right for a young, ascending player with a clear path to snaps and the ability to produce his first double-digit sack season in 2024.
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