IDP Buy/Sell/Hold: Post-Free Agency Edition
Now that the dust has settled on free agency, how do we feel about IDPs who got paid? Bobby breaks it down with a round of buy/sell/hold.
With the NFL Draft right around the corner, the trades in my dynasty leagues are picking up as my league mates try to position themselves for a run in 2023. Draft pick value is at its peak, and everyone is eager to see where these rookies will go.
As we approach the rookie draft, I want to slow down and take a look at some buy, sell, and hold candidates from the recent free agency period. These candidates either signed with a new team or got a new deal from their old team. And of course, all of this analysis comes with a dynasty mindset. Alright, let’s get it.
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Zach Allen, Arden Key
Buy: Arden Key, Tennessee Titans
After finishing with 4.5 sacks in 2022, Key is worth throwing a 5th-round draft pick on. Heck, he might just be available on your waiver wire. (He’s available in two of my dynasty leagues.) Key played with a decent line last year in Jacksonville with Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but I’d argue he might be with a better defensive line in Tennessee. Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons along with Key could be a menacing line in the AFC South. Go check and see if Key is available. Odds are, he is.
Sell: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Cleveland Browns
I see “Obo” as a sell partly because I’ve probably hyped him up too much (I blame his fun name). He is going to have a great opportunity and he is playing opposite Myles Garrett in Cleveland, so he sounds like a great buy, right? Someone else in your league is likely thinking the same thing. Okoronkwo had 5 sacks in 2022 but only in 4 games that came during a 5-game stretch. The rest of the season he disappointed. Will he take a step forward at 27? Possibly. Is he a good sell high? Likely.
Hold: Zach Allen, Denver Broncos
Adam’s EDGE35 in his dynasty ranks, Allen landed with the Denver Broncos. I have to agree with what Adam said on our last podcast that, like Key, Allen might be with a better D-line in Denver this year. Allen is still a young lineman at age 25 and had 5.5 sacks in 13 games last season. His play is good enough to warrant top 36 EDGE upside for me in 2023. He is a solid hold, as I want to profit from his play in 2023.
Cole Holcomb, T.J. Edwards, Azeez Al-Shaair
Buy: Cole Holcomb, Pittsburgh Steelers
Did you know Holcomb was on pace for 167 tackles in 2022? That to me makes him a screaming buy since he landed in an empty LB room in Pittsburgh. Despite the plush landing spot and golden opportunity, Holcomb’s value is depressed right now (LB39 in our ADP) because he’s coming off an injured year and won’t show up high in the end-of-year stats. I could argue that Holcomb is the best overall buy in IDP right now. So, what are you waiting for? Stop reading this and go send some offers!
Sell: T.J. Edwards, Chicago Bears
Whereas Holcomb is a value by ADP, Edwards is sitting at LB13, which is too rich for me. Is Edwards the linebacker you want in 2023 for the Bears? Yes, I believe so. I also think I could trade him to a league mate and profit off this high-value window. Could you get a 2nd for Edwards right now? I’d send out some feelers and see.
Hold: Azeez Al-Shaair, Tennessee Titans
We’ve always wondered what Al-Shaair could do with a full-time role once he escaped the shadow of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Well, here’s his opportunity (at least for now). While I could see the Titans bringing in another linebacker via free agency or the draft, I don’t think it will take away from Al-Shaair’s opportunity. I know some folks are holding out hope for Monty Rice, and at LB56, he’s a fine dart, but I think he’s better in a rotational role. If you’ve got Al-Shaair, I’d hold him, because at LB65, the market hasn’t caught up to his value yet. I also wouldn’t mind buying him at that price. He’s essentially free, and if he stays healthy, holds back-end LB2 upside.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Julian Love, Jessie Bates
Buy: Julian Love, Seattle Seahawks
Love always seems to outperform our expectations for him. Usually forgotten in drafts, he’ll randomly show up and win you a week, such as Week 2 in 2022 (23.9 points) and Week 12 (25.95 points). Coming off of a career-high 124 tackles in 2022, it’s easy to label him as a “sell.” But after landing with the Seahawks (and still only 25 years old), I beg to differ. There is already speculation as to whether Jamal Adams will be ready for Week 1. Given the fact it’s an Achilles injury, I’m skeptical. Enter Julian Love, who had 3 double-digit tackle games and 2 INTs in 2022.
Sell: Jessie Bates, Atlanta Falcons
Do I think Bates could have a better year than he did in 2022 when he finished as DB74 by Big 3 Scoring? Sure, but others probably feel the same. The IDP community has a soft spot for Bates, who’s sitting as DB30 by ADP. My question is: will Bates or Richie Grant play the box role for the Atlanta Falcons in 2023? I’ll capitalize on this prime selling window and let another manager figure that out.
Hold: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Detroit Lions
Do we know what Gardner-Johnson’s role is going to be with the Lions in 2023? Not yet. Does he have much competition for tackles on the Detroit Lions? I don’t think so. I am not a fan of Kerby Joseph’s play and I’m worried about what Tracy Walker will look like coming off an Achilles injury. Don’t tell anyone but I am not a Malcom Rodriguez or Alex Anzalone stan either. So even though most managers are probably bummed to see the team change for Gardner-Johnson, I would be patient. I think the production will stay high—and possibly even elevate—in 2023.
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