Welcome back to IDP Bets!
For this season, the IDP Bets show will now become the IDP Bets article series. We’ll still have some occasional podcast episodes, such as our Season-Long IDP Bets Episode, which we published before the season started, with special guest @AdamIDP (Adam Marcum from the IDPShow).
We’ll also be putting on our usual end-of-the-season “Super Bowl Degenerate Round Table Podcast”, as is tradition. However, the normal week-to-week podcast episodes will now be in article format this season, as that gives us more flexibility to edit published content after it’s out but before kickoff if a price changes significantly or an injury derails a bet, etc.
Transparency
This section of the article will include both season-long and last week’s transparency regarding how the bets themselves ended up. We’ll include wins, losses, and any voided bets due to injury or other factors. Including these stats and being transparent about how these bets are going will help you decide whether to follow this advice.
Overall Thought Process & Notes:
When it comes to your bets for the new NFL season, friend of the show and well-known degenerate Scott Bogman (@Bogmansports on Twitter) said it best: “Your bets should be like a tree each season. You start skinny (fewer bets initially), and as you learn more about each team, their tendencies and patterns, your bets become fuller and fuller (you’re more comfortable making more of them each week), and it eventually ends up looking like a tree from the ground up”.
With that being said, we’ll eventually be including up to 5 bets each week as we learn more about each team and player this season. We’ll start small, but by the time the Super Bowl comes around, we’ll know exactly what we’re looking for and have had multiple months of real statistics and patterns we’ve observed that will help us make those bets and feel confident in them.
From my point of view, the bets themselves are far less important than the thought process behind them. I’ll explain in detail why each bet was selected and the supporting metrics and statistics that gave me confidence in those bets in the first place. Teaching a man to fish is always preferable to just handing him a fish.
These lines are taken from the Underdog platform for Week 1. We’ve seen that these same lines (or very close to them) will usually be available the morning of each game on more well-known betting sites such as FanDuel and DraftKings.
We’ll also have the “tackles allowed by position” charts available starting in Week 2. Those are also extremely helpful in identifying ideal bets for us to take advantage of.