How Will the Hip-Drop Tackle Ban Affect IDP?

We asked members of our team to give their thoughts on the new rule change.

This week, it was announced that the NFL has banned the “hip-drop” tackle. This seemingly small change has led to outrage from many current and former NFL players, particularly those on the defensive side of the ball.

Per NFL executive Jeff Miller, there were 230 hip-drop tackles in 2023 (less than 1 per game) with 15 players injured as a result. While players, coaches, and pundits may argue about this rule change, a crucial question remains:

What, if any, effect will this rule change will have on IDP fantasy football?

We assembled several of our team members to share their thoughts on this new rule and what it may (or may not) mean for your team and draft strategy.

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Scott Soltis: Spreading the tackle wealth, widening the OP-IDP gap

It will take time to see what (if any) implications this has for the management of your current teams and future drafts but the two slight changes I am bracing for are:

Increased assisted tackle rate and more fading of IDPs in drafts.

If your league (like many) scores tackles differently than assists, I would expect the wealth to be spread a bit more. Drawing from the theory of sanction threat, players concerned about penalties or fines accrued from pulling runners backward may instead slow them down for a teammate to finish the process (resulting in a shared assisted tackle). This would suggest the potential for a slight uptick in the number of viable IDP players particularly for those leagues that reward tackles by some positions more than others (so-called “no position left behind” leagues). It will take time to see what (if any) positions are significantly impacted but I will continue to employ a draft strategy of taking pass rushers early and often since relatively few of the examples that have been shared by the NFL have been on QB sacks.

There is also potential for increased offensive fantasy scoring (juxtapose the offensive stats of 2017 and 2018 before and after helmet lowering was banned among other changes), suggesting a continued (or even more acute) need to wait on IDP in combined drafts. Offensive players should nearly always be a significant priority in combined leagues given the relative scarcity of these positions. After all, on any given play there are at most 6 offensive players who have scoring potential compared to 11 IDPs. If we see even a temporary jump in scoring as players learn to adjust to this new rule, it will make offensive players even more of a priority.

Drafting offense early and often is a strategy I’ve preached elsewhere for large format leagues but I think that strategy is more salient as we learn to navigate this new world and what (if any) impacts this rule change has on the fantasy landscape.

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Eric Harms: Much ado about nothing?

While I agree with Scott that there could be some changes to tackling technique, I do not believe the change will be significant enough to have much influence on how we should draft or value players. A mere 230 tackles of the 22,469 total tackles in 2023 would have been illegal if the rule had been in effect. Even if we assume fear of a 15-yard penalty and a fine increases the number of impacted tackles, I still don’t think we are looking at a major impact.

On the Pat McAfee Show this week, Bandon Beane, the Bills GM, said, “The way we were told is they just need something to fine guys, you know, if you go tackle someone and it snaps his leg or something… I think it is going to be very, very hard to truly call that live in game… I don’t think it’s going to be really called at this point.”

He then repeated that this was a vehicle to fine guys after looking at the tape on Monday or Tuesday. That messaging could certainly change between now and the regular season, but combining that sentiment with the low number of plays that would have been impacted last year, supports a wait-and-see approach.

When drafting, we must consider the value of a player within their position vs. the value of players within other positions. We still need to draft the required positions and find the best value in each. For now, I’m not changing how I value players. 

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 Jeff Pomazal: It’s the offseason, X needs something to talk about

As fans of the NFL, and to a lesser extent fantasy football managers, we all were super spoiled with the massive whirlwind of moves following the start of the NFL season during the first few days of free agency. After the signings cooled a bit, the NFL Competition Committee rolled out the rule changes for the upcoming season and you would have thought the world was ending on X. People were coming unglued about how soft the league was getting. JJ Watt said the league should just fast-forward to them wearing belts with flags.

I am more in line with this rule being a point of emphasis during training camp and in the preseason and that it will have very little impact when the games matter. As Eric mentioned above, there was such a small percentage of plays that were deemed a hip-drop tackle that teams will make adjustments in training camps to drills and this will be a non-factor.

You can all but bet, however, there will be a handful of games that will be influenced, whether warranted or not, by a hip-drop tackle penalty and X will melt down once again. I do not see this rule change affecting a player making a play or second-guessing himself on a tackle. Most plays end in someone making a tackle – that will not change going forward. 

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David Kelly: We don’t know enough to say anything for certain

Even though there were 230 hip-drop tackles in 2023, not all of them were flagged. And even if there’s a similar number in 2024, I wouldn’t expect nearly that many to be penalized. For comparison, since 2009, the horse collar tackle penalty has never been called more than 31 times per NFL Penalties. (The horse-collar tackle was banned four years earlier in 2005).

I don’t expect this rule change to change IDP much at all. For starters, I would expect a hip-drop penalty to be treated like a horse collar tackle, where the tackle still counts, like the penalty on Azeez Al-Shaair in Week 2 against the Chargers. Secondly, even if we do get a big behavior change, we don’t have any info on last season’s tackles.

• Were they all solo tackles?

• Which players are more likely to perform one?

• How many were plays where there would have been a touchdown if not for the hip-drop tackle (reducing the number of total tackles in the game)?

Until we get more data, we can’t adjust projections in any meaningful way. And even if we did, we are talking about less than 1 play per game.

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Jason King: Suspensions are the biggest potential IDP impact

Any statistical impact from the hip-drop tackle ban is going to be extremely hard to predict, and general reaction is that the play will be rarely penalized. As Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin remarked, “None of us want to see more flags on the field, and particularly none of us want to see this over-officiated, but I've been assured that that's not going to be the case.”

If penalties and fines actually alter on-the-field behavior, what really changes? The hip-drop tackle comes into play when the defender is in chase mode and is attempting to keep the ball carrier from maintaining forward momentum. So if the defender instead keeps his feet moving and drives through the tackle, could it result in an additional touchdown or two over the course of a season, as the ball carrier is able to continue his forward momentum while falling to the turf? I suppose. Mark Andrews may have scored on the now-infamous tackle by Logan Wilson. It also may result in some additional first downs, keeping opposing defenders on the field for additional snaps and tackle opportunities. There’s no sound hypothetical conclusion to be drawn.

Perhaps the biggest threat to an IDP would be a suspension for a repeat offender. Last season we saw safeties Kareem Jackson (Denver) and Damontae Kazee (Pittsburgh), and linebacker Denzel Perryman, all suspended multiple games for repeated violations of “the rules intended to protect player safety.” Should we see an IDP continuously run afoul of the new rule, we can rest assured the league office will send a message with a suspension.

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