Dynasty IDP Mysteries: Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson

Seattle revamped its LB room for 2024. How does this overhaul affect IDP managers?

As I’ve thought through my biggest IDP questions heading into the 2024 season, my mind has turned to the Pacific Northwest, where the Seahawks pushed out 72-year-old Pete Carroll after 14 seasons and brought in a head coach half his age in Mike Macdonald.

The NFL’s youngest head coach spent nine of his past 10 years in Baltimore, including two as the defensive coordinator. During those two years, Baltimore fielded two top fantasy linebackers in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. On a points-per-game basis using Big 3 Scoring, in 2022 Smith was the LB3 and Queen the LB9, and in 2023 Smith was the LB12 and Queen the LB21.

Certainly both are above-average off-balls by NFL standards, but they were also aided by massive volume, with each playing at least 94 percent of Baltimore’s defensive snaps over the course of the 2022-23 seasons. If volume is king for IDP production, volume matched with quality play and a friendly scheme is an ace-in-the-hole for fantasy.

Is there a chance we’ll have this recipe for fantasy success in Seattle in 2024?

The Seahawks of course don’t have Smith or Queen — or Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Devin Bush, the team’s top three linebackers from 2023. There’s essentially complete turnover in the linebacker room, and ushering in the Macdonald era are Jerome Baker, Tyrel Dodson, and Tyrice Knight.

Looking through a dynasty lens, Knight is the one most IDP aficionados would probably admit to being most intrigued by. He has the appeal of the unknown — that is, we haven’t seen him at the NFL level and therefore haven’t had a chance to form a bad opinion. A tackle machine during his four years at UTEP, Knight certainly landed in a good spot but with fourth-round draft capital it would be foolhardy to expect him to be ready to contribute in a meaningful way as a rookie.

And that means we should see a healthy dose of Baker and Dodson on the field together. Hello, opportunity! We have one box checked for fantasy relevance and it’s the most crucial one. Just looking at the past two seasons, any linebacker playing 900 or more snaps was very likely to finish as an LB1 or LB2 on the season (again, by Big 3 Scoring):

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Scheme and Personnel

It’s difficult to take anything for granted from year to year with coaching tendencies. For any offensive or defensive coordinator, there are 31 opponents working against you, and they have the answers to the test based on what was put on tape in recent seasons. The NFL is truly an “evolve or die” league. Still, we have to make some basic assumptions based on what we know, and the basics with the Macdonald defense start with heavy use (90 percent) of a four-down front and nickel (47 percent) or big nickel (32 percent) personnel. (Per Tom Kislingbury's 2023 Defensive Handbook.)

Inside, there’s a 3-technique (think Justin Madubuike) manning a B gap on the strong side (with an in-line tight end). And there’s typically a nose tackle shaded over the opposite A gap, either over the center (“0” shade) or inside the guard (2i), with a 5-tech end on the weak side. The strong side edge will either play a “wide 9” or head up over the tight end. That leaves inside gaps for the linebackers to mind versus the run. The nickel also fits into the run defense, a la an old-school 4-3 defense. The coverage scheme is heavy zone match.

Given the small percentage of time with five defensive linemen together on the field, you could guess teams were successful running against the Ravens, and Baltimore was among the league’s worst teams in yards allowed per attempt at 4.5.

Limiting explosive plays is the name of the game these days though, and the Ravens excelled in many other defensive categories, including points allowed per game (16.5), yards allowed per play (4.6), net passing yards allowed per attempt (4.7), defensive takeaways per game (1.8) and pressures per game (23.3). (Also per Tom Kislingbury's 2023 Defensive Handbook.) Hence the reason Macdonald is now a head coach.

Helping out with those pressures in Macdonald’s scheme are the linebackers, who are regularly tasked with blitzing. According to Pro Football Reference, Queen blitzed 63 times in 2023, while Smith logged 42. Both Baker and Dodson have shown an ability to blitz at a high clip, and play multiple roles at off-ball. Macdonald said at the NFL owners’ meeting in late March that he envisions his new linebacker duo to be interchangeable, but Dodson will start off in the middle with Baker on the outside.

“I think there's position flexibility and both guys have played both spots,” he said.

“But two guys that can run, two intelligent football players, tough, I thought they're both good tacklers, they're both good players in space and those are things we're asking from our inside backers. Those guys have got to take up a lot of ground, man. They've got to play people out of the backfield. They've got to play all the choice routes on the weak side, which is hard to do. I think we've got the right guys for the job. … If you want to play defense for us you've got to be able to blitz.”

While blitzes can help with the big plays, I’m most excited about the zone match coverage for fantasy production. You may have to work hard these days to find useful information on the app formerly known as Twitter, but it’s worth seeking out and bookmarking Jon Macri’s annual thread on coverage schemes that benefit linebacker tackle efficiency.

There’s an edge to be had with zone-heavy coverage schemes, and on top of the heavy two-linebacker usage, and the off-balls playing a major role in the run game and pass rush, Macdonald’s preferred coverage scheme is an added bonus.

Everything’s really lining up well for Baker and Dodson in ‘24. But are these guys any good?

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Baker the Playmaker?

First, you don’t have to be an NFL starting-level linebacker to be productive for fantasy. The good news is I think both Baker and Dodson are at least average (or close to average) as far as starting linebackers go.

I've always been intrigued by Baker since he came out of Ohio State. He tested as an explosive athlete but was a little on the smaller side at 6’1” and 229 pounds. Over his six years in Miami, he was never able to establish himself as a consistent elite-level linebacker, though he’s steadily improved in coverage — and it’s this ability that I think should extend his career as a full-time player. Now 27, Baker was released by Miami after the club approached him about lowering his salary for the final year of his deal. That’s not great, but the Dolphins were open to bringing him back even after cutting him. The contract with Seattle pays Baker $7 million, 19th best among off-balls in average annual value for 2024.

If you’re interested in some pretty good video breakdowns of what Baker does well, I recommend checking out:

• This one from pre-2023, which showcases Baker’s ability to blitz, play sticky in man-to-man coverage, and beating blocks in the run game; and,

• Though it’s over the top with the “elite playmaker” talk, this one from after he joined the Seahawks, which provides examples of his ability to play MIKE and outside off-ball, key and diagnose, keep clean and shed blocks, and close quickly in pursuit to the sideline.

If you watch those and come away as overly excited as the show moderators, balance it with Baker’s fantasy finishes from the past two seasons:

Certainly, 2022 and 2023 were concerning seasons for the fantasy production profile, but I think it’s some of the man coverage influence on the tackle numbers. The defensive coordinator in 2019, when Baker put up his best tackle production, was Patrick Graham, who sways heavily toward zone coverage. Sack production buoyed Baker during the three-year tenure (2020-22) of Josh Boyer, a man coverage disciple. Baker’s 2023 defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, also utilizes more man coverage than most.

It’s worth noting that Baker hasn’t crossed career paths with Macdonald, Assistant Head Coach Leslie Frazier, Defensive Coordinator Aden Durde, Inside Linebackers Coach Kirk Olivadotti, or Assistant Linebackers Coach Josh Bynes, and I’m not sure if that’s working in Baker’s favor or against him.

And despite my obvious optimism, remember Baker took a trip to the short-term injured reserve list with a knee injury late in 2023. He returned in Week 18 only to suffer a serious wrist injury that required surgery and kept him from getting reps during OTAs. He’s expected back for the start of training camp. He’s also on a one-year contract with Seattle, so there’s no real security should he fail to remain healthy or make a positive impression during camp or early in the season.

The Drumbeat for Dodson

There's more excitement for Dodson than Baker, and that excitement can be clearly traced to PFF’s grades on Dodson from 2023. The site graded Dodson as its fourth-highest-rated linebacker last season, highlighted by stellar coverage (No. 6) and run defense (No. 12) grades, with a 25th overall pass rush grade to boot.

Despite those lofty grades, Dodson was extremely hit-or-miss as a fantasy option last season, and he wasn’t rosterable during his first four seasons in the NFL. Without much of a track record, and with minimal familiarity with the Seahawks coaching staff (he overlapped with former Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier from 2019-22), Dodson moved to Seattle on an inexpensive $4.26 million, one-year deal.

Like Baker, we didn’t see Dodson work with the defense at OTAs, as he’s dealing with an undisclosed injury that will keep him off the field until late July or early August, Macdonald said.

If you’re looking for a good overview of what Dodson brings as a linebacker, this video highlights his sideline-to-sideline speed and aggressive downhill tendencies as a blitzer and run defender, and his shortcomings when taking on blockers. (I don’t share the narrator’s concerns with Dodson’s lack of ability in man-to-man coverage, as he won’t be asked to do much of it in Seattle.)

Cost Versus Risk

In fantasy, the risk of rostering or acquiring a player share is weighted against cost, and if you’re coming away from this article interested in either Baker or Dodson, the investment cost is relatively low given the upside.

The IDP Show’s Best Ball ADP shows Baker going off the board as the LB50, with an overall ADP of 135. Dodson goes even later as the LB58 with an overall ADP of 156.6. That’s considerably lower than Adam Marcum’s best ball rankings, which list Baker as the LB41 and Dodson close behind as the LB42.

If dynasty rankings are any indication of cost, Baker and Dodson aren’t quite the value they currently represent in the best ball streets, but reasonable all the same. Adam has Dodson as his LB40 (128 overall) and Baker as his LB45 (138 overall). I rank Baker as my LB41 (116 overall) and Dodson as my LB52 (143 overall).

For this season, barring injury, both Baker and Dodson look like safe LB3 bets due purely to anticipated snap volume and schematic advantages. If you’re the optimistic sort, you can see mid-LB2 upside. Either way, both look like values.

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