Draft Kit: 2025 IDP Fades
Here are the IDPs we're avoiding at their current ADPs.
IDP fantasy football isn't just about finding the next breakout in your draft—it’s also about knowing who to avoid. We’ve all been burned by chasing the previous season’s stats only to watch our “sure thing” IDP get schemed out of tackles, lose snaps, or simply regress to the mean. The numbers don’t lie, but they can certainly mislead.
Now, this article isn’t about being a hater. Every player in fantasy football can add value to a roster in the right context. At cost, these are players whose price tag is set to exceed their production in 2025. That’s why we’re not calling them “busts.”
They’re simply guys we wish were going later in drafts. If the price adjusts later this offseason, we’ll adjust and select new targets. But for now, here are my fades.
Andrew Van Ginkel, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: EDGE12
Andrew Van Ginkel exploded in Brian Flores’s system in 2024 and finished as the DL2 in 2024. Here were AVG’s finishes over the last 3 seasons:
2023: DL17
2022: DL109
2021: LB53
He showed some signs of a potential breakout after 2023, heading into 2024 under Flores, but there was no indication that a #1 overall finish was in the cards.
AVG’s IDP production was boosted by an increase in big play rate. Over his first 5 seasons, he produced a 3.9% big play rate (which includes sacks, TFLs, INTs, FF, FRs, TDs, QB hits). His best season for sacks was 2023, when he recorded 6.
In 2024, had had a big play rate of 5.4%. He set a career high in TFLs (18), sacks (11.5), and had two pick-sixes, which also aided his PPG average. I think those big plays will be unsustainable, and I am not banking on a repeat finish.
Kevin O’Connell is also going lean in on second-year edge rusher, Dallas Turner, and he’s expecting big things in 2025. Turner played just 300 snaps, so I could see him seeing an uptick and eating into Van Ginkel’s workload to keep him fresh.
AVG is one of the first dozen EDGEs being drafted. I won’t be taking him there.