Draft Kit: 2024 IDP Fades
While these aren't necessarily "bad" players, we are avoiding these IDPs at their ADP.
Instead of going with “busts” as the focus of this article, I’ll be looking at “fades.” I’m not saying these players are bad or will wreck your team. It means I’m passing on them at their current ADP, as it’s a bit too rich and I’m not a believer in a repeat of last season’s numbers. My shares might be minimal if not zero.
If you take these players at cost, you’re taking a risk at passing on similar players who offer better value at their ADP with higher upside. Are they horrible picks?
No, but they would look better if drafted later on.
Ed Oliver, DT, Buffalo Bills
ADP: DL38 (DT7)
Did Ed Oliver have the quietest 9.5 sack season of all time? After a promising rookie year, Oliver had a few down seasons before finally living up to his first-round billing in 2023, adding a career-high 51 tackles to go along with the sacks.
I don’t like paying for ceiling years and Oliver feels like he’s being drafted at his ceiling as the DT7 and the 61st defender off the board. Buffalo likes to rotate their defensive linemen, so I don't see Oliver playing over 70% of the snaps, especially since they added some depth at the position — DeShawn Williams and Austin Johnson will factor into the rotation. The Bills also added DeWayne Carter in the draft. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Oliver’s snaps fall below the 700 mark. If Oliver’s usage drops, the production should follow and he could regress to his typical numbers.
I’m passing on Oliver and looking a bit further down at guys like Derrick Brown (84), Calijah Kancey (98.4), and last season’s rookie surprise, Kobie Turner (103.3).