DL Streaming: 12 Preseason Waiver Targets
DL Streaming: 12 Preseason Waiver Targets
Looking for some deep DL targets to scoop off waivers before the regular season kicks off? Professor IDP has you covered.
Looking to identify some diamonds in the rough along the D-line before the season starts? You’re in the right place! In this article, I’ll highlight 12 deeper names (DT31+ and DE61+) I’m targeting in preseason waivers and late in redrafts or best balls.
In years past, I’ve written the DT Deep Dive and DE Annex highlighting deeper plays at both positions. This season, I’ll bring you those suggestions in one place: my weekly DL Streaming 101 article! As a true position truther, I’ll separate DT and DE (based on MFL designations), highlight a dozen DL at various levels of rostership on MFL, and note what tier they are in when compared to all DL for the week:
Ideal
Solid
Solid-Deeper
Dart Throw
Each week, I’ll chart my successes and failures because transparency is important to me. Past results are available here and here. My models of DL performance are very data-driven with only small adjustments made based on subjective criteria:
Snaps: heaviest weight in my modeling — when all else fails, follow the snaps
PFF pass rush grades: secondary criterion, has been predictive of fantasy output
PFF run grades: an indicator of snaps but a less consistent impact on fantasy
Weekly opponent data: fantasy points allowed to DT/DE
Preamble finished, let’s look at those 12 DL I’m targeting in preseason waivers and late in redrafts or best balls. I’ll also share the post-NFL Draft ADP for each player in the IDP only best ball drafts we have been running this offseason.
1. Milton Williams, DT32, Philadelphia Eagles
While I agree Jalen Carter is the DT to roster for Philly, Milton Williams is still rostered at a very low rate and stands to benefit as much (if not more) from Fletcher Cox’s retirement than Carter or Jordan Davis. In 2022, with Cox eating up 66% of snaps, Carter played 51% of snaps, Davis was at 45%, and Williams playing 46%. Williams also had a higher snap floor than either of his returning counterparts playing 34% of snaps once while Carter and Davis each have a 24% snap share game.
In addition to what is likely to be a season with more snaps, Williams displayed solid talent last season with a 62 pass rush grade and a 69.8 run defense grade (good for PFF’s 32nd-best overall defensive tackle). Finally, Williams had 22 pressures resulting in only 1 sack last season which has him primed for positive regression. The IDP Show best ball drafters are ahead of the MFL crowd making him DT32 in that format while he is not even in the top 60 most rostered players on MFL.
2. Arik Armstead, DT38, Jacksonville Jaguars
Armstead is one of several old names in new places that are largely flying under the radar. Last season in San Francisco, Armstead missed 4+ games and still finished as a top 60-scoring DT in most formats. If you extrapolate his numbers to a full season he was much closer to a top-30 scoring DT. As we all know past performance is not always indicative of future success, particularly when a player is changing teams but there is optimism that Armstead can repeat or improve his performance in 2024.
His snap share in 2023 was typically in the 60-70% range and was incredibly similar to Roy Robertson-Harris, whom Armstead is replacing in Jacksonville. His performance also seems sustainable since he was not a fluke fantasy performer last year as it could be argued he underperformed his underlying metrics with a pass rush grade of 86.5 which was good for 5th best among all DT last year.
3. Alim McNeil, DT44, Detroit Lions
If you have been following me for some time, you will know that I am ready to be hurt again. McNeil is too talented to ignore as the 7th overall rated DT last season with very solid grades against both the run (76.9) and pass (78.6). His snap shares are also close to ideal for a DT as he only dipped under 60% twice in 2023.
McNeil finished as a top fantasy 50 DT last season despite missing the team’s final 3 games (he did return for the playoffs). His per-game average also would have had him finishing near the top 30 had he stayed healthy. McNeil and new addition D.J. Reader make up the top-rated interior defensive line in the NFL with Aiden Hutchinson and newcomer Marcus Davenport on the edge (more on Davenport later). All signs point to McNeil building on his momentum from last season and while some inconsistency is baked into his game, he is primed to have a career-best season for fantasy.
4. Justin Jones, DT47, Arizona Cardinals
There is a clear tier break here and we are solidly in flier territory but if you are looking for an upside play in a quagmire of a defense, Justin Jones is your man! I recognize that is not a ringing endorsement, but you can do much worse than Jones who quietly finished as a top 30 fantasy DT last season with the Bears. While I suspect this was near his ceiling given his underlying metrics are not overly strong (PFFs DT 107 in 2023), he should be primed for plenty of playing time in Arizona, which is still looking to replace Zach Allen. While the Cardinals brought in both Jones and Bilal Nichols, Jones has one more year on his deal and twice the guaranteed money as Nichols so he should be given ample opportunities to contribute.
5. Sheldon Rankins, DT49, Cincinnati Bengals
Another familiar face in a new place, Rankins joined the Bengals this offseason to fill the gap next to B.J. Hill left by D.J. Reader. Rankins is more of a liability than an asset in the run game but seems primed to routinely play 50-70% of snaps as Reader did before him which is also the same workload he carried last season in Houston.
Rankins has incredible upside (his 3 sack game against the Bengals last year still gives me nightmares) which makes him an ideal best ball player with redraft upside, particularly in leagues where you can start two DTs and play a safe and upside game. His fantasy numbers last year were the result of more stellar play than luck with a 74.7 pass rush grade which should mitigate some fears of regression.
6. Maliek Collins, DT59, San Francisco 49ers
Another familiar name to DT degenerates in a new place this season is Maliek Collins. Collins was wildly inconsistent in Houston (roughly 40% of his 2023 fantasy points came in two games) but enters a situation with the 49ers where the cupboard is relatively bare next to Javon Hargrave. Each of Collins’ last three seasons have seen him earn a pass rush grade of 70 or better and playing on likely the most talented defense of his career, he should be able to put that talent to good use.
Gone are Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw (a duo that played 1,100+ snaps last year) and the only addition other than Collins was Jordan Elliott from the Browns whose career-best numbers over 4 seasons have been routinely overperformed by Collins.
7. Dorance Armstrong, DE53, Washington Commanders
While there is still a great deal of uncertainty around the edge snap distribution in Washington this upcoming season, Armstrong has the best chance of producing when compared to his teammates Clelin Ferrell, Dante Fowler, and KJ Henry. From a PFF standpoint, Armstrong was first in overall grade among that quartet and was only barely beat out in pass rush grade by one teammate (more on him later).
Armstrong is currently penciled in as the starter opposite Ferrell and was paid like it with a three-year, $33 million contract compared to the one-year deals at just over $3 million each given to fellow new Commanders Ferrell and Fowler. New Commanders DC Joe Whitt brings a defense that does not heavily rotate the DE position and he (and new head coach Dan Quinn) are very familiar with Amstrong as they brought him with them from Dallas. The IDP Show drafters are sharper than the MFL general population on this one as well as he is being drafted as DE53 despite an MFL rostership that does not rank in the top 60 for the position.
8. Arnold Ebiketie, DE64, Atlanta Falcons
When I began writing this article, I had noted that Ebiketie would likely be pushed by rookie Bralen Trice this season and should be added with reserved optimism. Even more recently, it was announced that the Falcons have acquired Matthew Judon from the Patriots, so I am back at square one! Despite a rocky preseason debut, Ebiketie put up a very solid 70.1 pass rush grade playing limited snaps in 2023.
He still has a relatively clear runway in front of him to increase his snaps with the loss of 724 snaps by Bud Dupree and 712 from Calais Campbell (although Campbell played a slightly different role). As a bonus, there should be an opportunity to feast with two games each against the Buccaneers (PFF’s 17th rated O-Line), Panthers (20th), and Saints (32nd), and the Judon trade should be making Ebiketie even more affordable.
9. Marcus Davenport, DE71, Detroit Lions
I fully understand if Davenport is on many “do not draft/add” lists this season since he has burned so many of us so many times. Still, he is the presumptive starter on a D-line which features PFF’s #8 EDGE (Hutchinson), #7 IDL (McNeil), and #11 IDP (Reader). If he can stay healthy (and I recognize there is not a big enough font or dark enough bold for that “if”) he should have the chance to thrive like never before and has shown enough flashes throughout his career to create some optimism.
On limited snaps, Davenport posted pass rush grades of 75 and 82 in 2022 and 2021, respectively. In two full games in 2023 for the Vikings, Davenport tallied 7 pressures and 2 sacks, so that talent is clearly still there. While the Lions bring back all three players who rotated opposite Hutch last year, Davenport’s $6 million deal represents a significant investment that the Lions hope will pay good dividends.
10. Dante Fowler, DE93, Washington Commanders
While he is currently behind Clelin Ferrell on the depth chart, Fowler outperformed Armstrong in 2023 in terms of both pass rush grade (69.9 to 69.7) and run defense (62 to 58.1). These metrics are also significantly higher than fellow new addition Ferrell. While K.J. Henry may also have something to say about playing time after a very solid Week 1 of the preseason, I still like Fowler’s matchup-dependent upside.
The Commanders have games against the Ravens, Cardinals, and Giants (twice), who all rank 25th or worse in projected quality of offensive line per PFF. Fowler also has familiarity with the new Commanders coaching staff and a near identical contact to Ferrell which makes him as good an option as any opposite Armstrong.
11. Joseph Ossai, DE113, Cincinnati Bengals
While Ossai is primarily known for one incredibly bad decision to make contact with Parick Mahomes near the sideline at the end of an AFC Championship game, he is a defender who has shown flashes. Across two seasons, Ossai has logged 10 games with PFF pass rush grades above 65 with a career-best game to end last season graded as 84.1. The biggest obstacle for Ossai being a fantasy-relevant DE is playing time.
With Cam Sample on IR, Ossai is the clear #4 for the Bengals — a position that frequently yields significant fantasy production. Sample played twice as many snaps as Ossai last season and while second-year player Myles Murphy is likely to get the majority of those snaps, Ossai is one injury away from being in a clear rotation as DE2 in an underrated Bengals defense which is tied to a high power offense.
12. DeMarcus Walker, DE124, Chicago Bears
Walker broke out for the Titans in 2022 and faded for the Bears in 2023. However, a dip was predictable after incredible efficiency in 2022 (8 sacks on 32 pressures) and his underlying performance was not as bad as his fantasy performance with a respectable PFF pass rush grade of 64 (just below his 67.4 mark in 2022) and a solid 47 pressures, which tied for 41st in the NFL. Walker can look forward to a full season with Montez Sweat demanding the attention of offensive lines and no meaningful competition brought in for snaps. The Bears offense also looks to be much improved which should give a slight bump to the pass rush opportunities for the defense as opponents will be more likely to need to pass to stay in games (or catch up) than last season.
Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube.
 | A guest post by
|
Great article! I attended UK. Born and raised in Lexington.