DL Streaming 101: Week 5
Professor IDP looks at the best DE and DT streaming options in your IDP fantasy football leagues for Week 5.
Welcome to the Week 5 edition of DL Streaming 101! The bye weeks are here, we have (still) more injuries to deal with but the silver lining is that we seem to be hitting our stride with DL streaming after another successful week.
Before we get into last week’s picks and season-long performance, I wanted to give a quick shout-out to some DL Streaming 101 alumni from earlier this year (that hopefully you still had stashed). Emmanuel Ogbah, Adam Butler, T’Vondre Sweat, and John-Franklin Meyers all put up top 24 DT performances in Week 4 while Dorance Armstrong, Yaya Diaby, and Kyle Van Noy all landed in the top 24 DEs this week. Hopefully, this serves as a reminder that even if many of these guys don’t hit in a given week, it is always risky to write them off entirely when their underlying metrics are solid!
I was thrilled in Week 3 to see an overall average of 10.76, no 0-point performances, and six players meeting their projections (with three at least doubling their expectations). Week 4 got even better with an overall average of 13.31, again no 0-point performances (although there was a .5), and ten players exceeding their projections despite some missing game time due to injuries. The biggest highlights were Maliek Collins (DT3), Jarran Reed (DT10), Derrick Hall (DE11) and Nik Bonitto (DE14) with Collins and Hall having been available in over 90% of IDP leagues going into last week. Last week also stresses the importance of reading the fine print on players as astute readers noticed soft calls on Dayo Odeyingbo (DE12) and Dre’Mont Jones (DT13) as well.
For the season, recommended plays are tightly grouped and continue to take form in tiers due to the small sample size. The Ideal tier sees the highest scores for pass rush grades and snap shares but the lowest average points per game. This tells me that the model is working as expected and the (slightly) lower numbers for fantasy output are likely a statistical anomaly which is common when dealing with small groups of players and will likely stratify more clearly as the season progresses.
I am toying with season-long fantasy production as another predictor of future fantasy production but given how well the model is performing, I am hesitant to make a significant change. Still, the correlations between average DL 2024 performance (minus current week) with single-week performance have been stable thus far at the .22 to .24 range. A few more weeks like this (or a few bad weeks for the current snap-heavy model) and I will be reporting some changes but for now, we fire up the existing model to look for good Week 5 DL streaming options!
DL Available in 75% of IDP Leagues
Derick Hall, SEA, DE (🎓🎓🎓🎓)Â
Hall’s rostership has increased but he is still available in roughly 85% of MFL IDP leagues and is an ideal play this week. For the season, Hall is DE14 with only one poor showing in Week 2 against the Patriots who were a difficult early-season matchup for DEs until allowing a monster game to Nick Bosa and company last week. Hall is still playing 80% of snaps with PFF grades above 70 against the run and pass and faces the Giants this week. New York looked like a highly exploitable DE matchup in Week 1 when they allowed 78 points across three Vikings DEs but their line has found its footing as of late against top talent such as Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Questionable matchup aside, Hall has every other mark of an ideal DL streamer and should be a great option in Week 5.
Osa Odighizuwa, DAL, DT (🎓🎓🎓)Â
Another staple of DL Streaming 101, Osa Odighizuwa put up a solid three tackle, one assist performance last week while playing a season-low 77% of snaps. With injuries to Micah Parsons and Tank Lawrence, the Cowboys will need to generate pressure somewhere and Odighizuwa’s 65.7 pass-rush grade and 12 QB pressures (9th most for DTs) demonstrate that he has the talent to put up a big game. Pittsburgh is a middle-of-the-road fantasy matchup for opposing DTs but you can do much worse in Week 5.
Jarran Reed, SEA, DT (🎓🎓🎓)Â
Reed put up a monster game in Week 4 finishing as DT10 for the week and looks to replicate this performance in Week 5 against the aforementioned Giants. New York has been a brutal fantasy matchup for opposing DTs this season including a Week 2 performance that saw Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne scoring a combined 2.25 points. So far in 2024 Reed has outperformed both of these highly touted players in several metrics and looks for a solid showing in Week 5 but keep an eye on the status of teammates Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy as the week progresses. Reed’s snap share drops from 75% to 54-62% in games where they were at full strength and that is a much less ideal situation.Â
Vita Vea, TB, DT (🎓🎓🎓)Â
The fantasy concerns about Vea have never been talent but more about his alignment as a frequent nose tackle and his ability to stay on the field. Tampa Bay faces Atlanta in Week 5, with the Falcons already five 10-point performances to opposing DTs between Weeks 1-3 before stifling the Saints last week. Vea is solid against the run (55.5) and has been great as a pass-rusher (79.1) in limited action. If he plays close to the 68% snap share he saw last week, Vea could be in a position to post another solid week as he is averaging 15 points per game when healthy in 2024.
Deatrich Wise/Anfernee Jennings, NE, DE (🎓🎓)Â
While many of us have muscle memory to react negatively to the idea of playing a Patriots DL not named Matt Judon or Christian Barmore, Wise has put up several big games over the years in New England. If Anfernee Jennings is out again this week, Wise will have the opportunity to get the snap share needed to be a solid (deeper) DL streaming option as he played 70% of snaps in Week 4. If Jennings is in, I would recommend playing him instead as he outsnapped Wise in every game in which both played. Whoever gets the majority of snaps will be in a prime position to thrive against a flailing Dolphins team which has been among the most fantasy-friendly to opposing DTs since Tua’s injury allowing more than 60 fantasy points per game to the position in Weeks 3 and 4.
Dayo Odeyingbo, IND, DE (🎓🎓)Â
There should be plenty of snaps available for Odeyingbo regardless of whether or not teammate Kwity Paye suits up in Week 5. The Colts lost Tyquan Lewis to IR and the primary fantasy beneficiary is rookie Laiatu Latu with Odeyingbo’s stock staying relatively constant. In Week 3 when all four DE were healthy, the Colts played their top 3 options at least 69% of snaps each. The Jaguars are a difficult fantasy DE matchup to predict after allowing a combined 35 points to the position in Weeks 1 and 4 but nearly 125 points in Weeks 2 and 3. The concern here is that the sack numbers may not be sustainable as he ranks 12th in the league in sacks, and 25th in pressures, but 45th in pass rush win rate and 63rd in pass rush grade among all DE.
DL Available in 90% of IDP Leagues
DeMarcus Walker, CHI, DE (🎓🎓🎓)
With the exception of Raiders DTs, every team who has played the Panthers has seen their DT and DE score less than their season average. Walker’s stable snap share at or above 80% and his good pass rush grade (69.7) create some optimism that he can buck this trend. Walker has a modest seven pressures with no sacks yet in the 2024 season which is tied for the sixth most pressures without a sack in the NFL. Here’s hoping this is the week he gets out of this club!
Adam Butler, LV, DT (🎓🎓🎓)
Butler returns to the DL streaming article after a brief hiatus thanks to an 85% snap share in Week 4 and season-long grades above 63 against both the run and pass (good for the 26th-best grade for any DT so far this season). Butler draws a tough fantasy matchup against a Broncos team that has yet to give up a 10-point fantasy performance to any DT this season despite facing players such as the Seattle rotation, Cam Heyward, and Quinnen Williams. Ideally, we have good players playing good snaps in good matchups but as more players get rostered due to injury and byes so sometimes we settle for two of the three.
Emmanuel Ogbah, MIA, DE (🎓🎓🎓)
Ogbah also checks two of three of our DL streaming boxes, just a different set than our previous two options to give you some variety in what strategy you employ! His PFF numbers are not abysmal (a pass rush grade of 58.9) but they also do not jump off the page (his 65.8 run defense grade). What lands him on the list this week is his fantastic snap share of 83% and a very attractive matchup. The Patriots only allowed an average of 23 fantasy points to opposing DEs Weeks 1 and 2 but have given up over 50 per game since. Ogbah in particular will likely draw Demontrey Jacobs whose pass protection grade of 21.7 is the worst among 76 qualifying tackles in 2024.
Roy Lopez, ARI, DT (🎓🎓)
Roy Lopez makes his first appearance of the season thanks to a 71% snap share in Week 4 in the wake of Justin Jones’ season-ending triceps injury. Lopez has a 69.8 pass-rush grade on the season with a 90.6 grade on true pass sets which is the best in the NFL among interior defenders with at least 12 such opportunities. The Cardinals are facing the 49ers this week in what has been a fantasy-friendly matchup for DTs as of late allowing over 100 fantasy points to the position group over the last two weeks. Lopez already has two solid fantasy performances in Weeks 1 and 4 this season and looks to build on this start in Week 5.
Maliek Collins, SF, DT (🎓🎓)
Turning to the other side of the Cardinals-49ers matchup, Maliek Collins remains a viable play in Week 5 after an impressive Week 4 showing. Despite his overall DT3 performance last week, Collins dropped a tier in Week 5 due to an abysmal run defense grade of 44.9 and a tough fantasy matchup as the Cardinals held the Lions and Bills to a combined 19 points in Weeks 1 and 3. What keeps Collins as a viable play are his solid snap share (75% in Week 4) and very strong pass rush grade (70.4). Collins is a boom-bust candidate but we have seen plenty of highly touted DL this season exhibit this same pattern (and cost you much more).Â
Micheal Clemons, NYJ, DE (🎓🎓)
With Jermaine Johnson out for the season and Haason Reddick MIA, the Jets have a clear need at DE. Second-year player Will McDonald had a monster Week 2, an impressive Week 3, and completely disappeared from the box score in Week 4 only notching one QB hit. While Michael Clemons has yet to put up a big game, the Jets kept him on the field in Week 4 where he played 72% of snaps second only on the defensive line to Quinnen Williams. Clemons PFF grades are very meh and he draws a touch fantasy matchup against the Vikings which has him very near the dreaded ‘dart throw’ tier but if you are hurting due to injuries or byes to your starters, the volume alone makes him a solid play in deeper leagues.Â
Good luck and if you have any questions about deep DL plays, my office is always open on Twitter (@ProfessorIDP). While this article is a freebie, please consider supporting me, the show, and the broader IDP community by adding your league(s) to the 2024 State of IDP Survey!
Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube.