DL Streaming 101: Week 16
With the semester winding down, Professor IDP looks at the best DE and DT streaming for your IDP playoffs in Week 16.
As we prepare for the next round of the fantasy playoffs, let’s shake things up a bit and take a look back at last week's results overall and within each DL position.
While our weekly average dipped below the 10-point mark to 9.775 this was largely due to expected volatility in Tier 3 (Solid-Deeper) plays. Tiers 1 and 2 averaged a season-high 15.28 points so hopefully you did not have to dig too deeply for a streaming option last week. For the season, Tier 1 paces the field with an average of 14.11, Tier 2 has an average of 11.02, and Tier 3 is holding steady at a respectable 10.48. Across all 195 weekly selections this season, our average is 11 points per game which I am happy with given these are all players available in at least 75% of IDP leagues at the time they were featured.
Long-time readers know that DT is my bread and butter and boy did Week 15 highlight this as we nailed three of the top six fantasy DT performances in Osa Odighizuwa, Adam Butler, and B.J. Hill (DT7 was Tershawn Wharton who has been featured three times in 2024). While the adage “don't pat yourself on the back you might break your spine” comes to mind, I highlight this success to show that there are many great DT options out there even this late in the season when compared to DE. As we will get to later on, we have our first dips into Tier 4 (Educated Dart Throw) in Week 16 due to my desire to include 10 DT and 10 DE for your consideration in a very thin DE market. If you are in DL leagues or can flex DT (particularly in DT premium) don’t sleep on the big guys!
For the first time all season, not a single DE featured in Week 15 broke the 10-point mark (although there were several close calls). Hopefully, you were able to hang on to some of the DE featured in previous articles as Nik Bonitto (first seen in Week 3), Kingsley Engabare (Week 14), and Chauncey Golston (featured seven times, first in Week 6) all put up top-12 DE performances.
While Week 15 had successes and setbacks, we press on to Week 16 and 20 more players for your consideration, including a few debuts. I continue to feature some players below from the top, middle, and bottom of this week’s options but always recommend looking at higher-ranked options first given how the season-long data (and last week in particular) have played out. As always, be sure to check for actives/inactives that would either help or hurt an individual player before making your lineup decisions and feel free to use the data I provide to help your decision-making as you know your risk tolerance, league set-up, and needs this week. For instance, I suggested caution with Tavius Robinson last week if Kyle Van Noy returned to action. He did and put up 12.9 points compared to Robinson’s 6-point performance!
Featured DL Streamers
D.J. Reader, DT, DET (🎓🎓🎓)
Readers of this series and 2022-2023’s DT Deep Dives know how much I am a fan of Alim McNeill and so it is devastating to see his season cut short (once again) to injury. While the Lions are getting very thin in places last week did see the return of Josh Paschal (more on him later) and we are starting to see D.J. Reader return to the form that landed him a solid free agent contract this offseason. Eight of Reader’s 18 pressures and two of his three sacks in 2024 have come in the past three weeks (even though his PFF grades are not what we were used to in Cincinnati). The Lions draw a great matchup in Week 16 against a Bears team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL in 2024 and Reader, in particular, added two to that total just three weeks ago when the teams recently met.
K'Lavon Chaisson, DE, LV (🎓🎓🎓)
While Tyree Wilson had the better day for fantasy in Week 15 (and is another viable DE streaming option in Week 16), Chaisson caught my eye thanks to a 98% snap share and a solid 66.6 PFF pass rush grade against the Falcons. On the season, Wilson has 60 more snaps than Chaisson, a comparable run defense grade but only two more pressures and a pass rush win rate of 9.9% to Chaisson’s 14.4%. The Jaguars have been a brutal matchup for opposing edges as of late allowing only one 10-point fantasy performance across their last four games with Chaisson likely drawing the tougher of the two tackle matchups in Walker Little who ranks near the middle of the league in most PFF metrics. A near 100% snap share and the talent Chaisson has flashed still make him the better of the two Raiders DE streaming options for me but proceed with caution.
Josh Paschal, DE, DET (🎓🎓)
Last week, I wrote that someone had to play DE for the Lions and signs were pointing toward that someone being Al-Quadin Muhammad. Well, Josh Paschal had something to say about that by returning from injury to play 81% of snaps tying his season high with five pressures. Paschal draws the best possible DE matchup this week by facing the Bears. When the two teams played in Week 13, he left the game after just seven snaps due to injury allowing his replacement (Muhammad) to rack up 16 fantasy points. With Paschal healthy and the team happy to lean on him, he only misses the Tier 2 cut due to a very pedestrian 50.8 season-long pass rush grade per PFF.
Byron Murphy II, DT, SEA (🎓🎓)
Murphy was the consensus fantasy DT1 in the 2024 class but has yet to live up to that billing due to a combination of factors. First, he has not been able to get consistent playing time due to the Seahawks’ incredibly deep DT rotation (four players have played at least 50% of snaps in a game and it is common to see six playing significant snaps each week). Second, when he has played, he has not yet been as advertised with his only PFF grade over 70 coming in tackling (which is not a statistically significant predictor of DT fantasy output). Still, there is reason for optimism as Week 15 saw Murphy play his second-highest snap share of the season and the Seahawks draw the Vikings in Week 16 who are the sixth-best fantasy matchup for opposing DT in 2024 and the best since Week 8.
T'Vondre Sweat, DT, TEN (🎓🎓)
When watching the Bengals-Titans game with my son on Sunday, he watched Sweat’s fumble return and said to me ‘Oh boy, that’s going to be an Angry Run this week’. He was right as Sweat became the largest player to ever win a coveted scepter on Good Morning Football this Tuesday. Sweat is more than a splash play waiting to happen as he has been featured several times in past weeks thanks to good snaps (as high as 80% twice this season) a 73.5 PFF run defense grade and a 66.7 pass rush grade (coming off a single game high of 92.5 last week). Sweat draws a favorable fantasy matchup this week against the Colts who allowed three 10-point performances last week and a massive 86.1 points to the position in Week 11 against the Jets.
DeMarcus Walker, DE, CHI (🎓)
After featuring Walker several times this year, he has dropped into educated dart-throw territory thanks to a Bears team that is well out of contention starting to give more players a look. Walker only played 60% of snaps in Week 15 which was his second-lowest share of the season. He also has too much red in his PFF ledger over recent weeks with a 22.8 tackling grade in Week 15, a 30 overall grade in Week 14, and sub-40 tackling grades in Weeks 12 and 13. While I mentioned that tackling grades don’t tend to translate to fantasy production, they likely influence playing time making Walker a player that I would only start if I were in desperate need in Week 16.
Good luck and if you have any questions about deep DL plays, my office is always open on Twitter (@ProfessorIDP). While this article is a freebie, please consider supporting me, the show, and the broader IDP community by adding your league(s) to the 2024 State of IDP Survey!
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