8 IDPs I Can't Stop Drafting
In his debut article, Jackson Schwam examines his best ball player exposure to understand why he keeps selecting certain IDPs.
After completing eight IDP-only best ball drafts alongside some of the industry’s brightest minds, I’ve realized how difficult it is to leave the draft room feeling like I “got my guys.” However, I will shamelessly resort to the cheesy and age-old adage from NFL training camps that “iron sharpens iron.”
Getting through multiple best ball drafts alongside such savvy competition has helped to develop my mid-range game, where loftier player exposures are possible given the added flexibility afforded outside the first few rounds. With that in mind, my inaugural article with The IDP Show will detail which players most frequented my draft boards and why.
1. Lavonte David, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Exposure: 63%
After snagging the cagey vet in five of my eight best ball drafts completed thus far, Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David settles in as my highest player share.
Every time I hit the “draft” button and selected David, it felt like a steal. In four drafts I selected David in the 4th round with the earliest selection being 4.04. The latest I took him was at 5.01. In that range, I’m more than comfortable selecting a veteran linebacker who has shown time and time again that he is a high-volume producer.
Dating back to 2012, the 34-year-old LB has never recorded fewer than 100 tackles when playing 14 games or more in a season. That is exceptional consistency.
Last season was one of David’s best. He finished with 133 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and a forced fumble. He was also solid analytically, with an overall PFF defensive grade of 72.3, good for 25th in the NFL among LBs who met the snap-count minimum.
I don’t see much changing with David’s situation. He’ll fend off Father Time for at least a few more seasons as he gets new running mate K.J. Britt accustomed to Tampa Bay’s defensive scheme. Focus on the EDGE position early in drafts and get your LB1 in David in the 4th round.
2. Jevon Holland, S, Miami Dolphins
Exposure: 63%
Jevon Holland is a rising star in the NFL who has demonstrated the ability to produce on a solid and consistent basis. While Holland has yet to record 200 points in Big 3 Scoring formats, I’m willing to bet on an imminent breakout season.
The fourth-year safety out of Oregon was a darling analytically with the Dolphins last season, as he was the third-ranked safety on PFF.
While Holland has shown a knack for recording tackles, even recording as many as 14 in Week 1 last season, his big-play production has left a little bit to be desired thus far. If Holland can get a bit more involved in the pass rush and maybe add a few picks into the mix, he could easily be a top-10 DB in terms of production.
The earliest that I reached for Holland ended up being at pick 13.08, with my latest share of him coming in at pick 17.01. Across five drafts, the capital I utilized in selecting Holland averaged out to around pick 15.05, which I think is the perfect spot for him, just in terms of value.
Holland is a great target for teams looking to wait on DB and prioritize edge rushers/linebackers earlier on in best ball drafts. I’m going to give Holland some brownie points for being a fellow Canadian, too!
3. Arik Armstead, DT, Jacksonville Jaguars
Exposure: 63%
Jacksonville’s newest addition should help solve some of the pass rush woes that have plagued the team over the past few seasons. When watching the Jaguars on Sundays, it’s clear that both Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen are forces on the edge but their production suffers a bit due to the lack of pressure generated from the inside of the defensive line. DaVon Hamilton has battled injuries over the past couple of years, and while players like Roy Robertson-Harris have been solid, they’ve lacked star power in the middle of the D-line. Armstead should help flip that narrative.
The biggest allure with a player like Armstead in these best ball drafts is the investment that’s required to select him (or lack thereof). Across five drafts, I was able to draft Armstead as low as pick 27.03. The fact that he recorded 5 sacks in just 12 games last season with the 49ers alone affords that pick great value.
The discount on Armstead derives from the fact that he has simply been injury-prone throughout the last few years of his career. Currently, he is on the PUP list as he recovers from an offseason knee surgery and has yet to report to camp with the Jaguars. Nonetheless, Armstead himself has reported that he is “feeling good” and “[will] be back very soon.”
Armstead’s pass rush grade of 86.5 was good enough for 5th amongst interior defenders on PFF last season, and both the Jaguars and I are banking on a full return to form with production in the sack column.
4. Mike Danna, EDGE, Kansas City Chiefs
Exposure: 50%
Mike Danna is a great example of a player who has seemingly gotten better every season. This gradual rise is somewhat reflected in his fantasy output, as he has recorded more points and a better points-per-game average in each season following his debut in 2020. Selecting him as early as pick 16.12 and as late as pick 21.09, I’m thrilled to get a player anywhere in that range who is coming off a 148.4-point season in Big 3 Scoring, where he recorded 50 tackles and 6.5 sacks.
One of the factors that drew me to Danna is his anticipated position atop the EDGE depth chart for the Chiefs. I don’t see Felix Anudike-Uzomah or Charles Omenihu as threats to Danna’s role, as both are probably rotational guys at this point just based on inexperience and injury history, respectively. With that in mind, Danna should be a major piece in a Chiefs defensive line that features studs such as Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. Danna doesn’t need to be the driving factor for sack production in that situation, but he sure will benefit statically from playing within it.
Given his upward trajectory, I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see Danna push for around 170 fantasy points in Big 3 Scoring, and that’s fantastic value for a player that can be realistically had past round 20.
5. Chuck Clark, S, New York Jets
Exposure: 50%
This one is undoubtedly risky given the injury that veteran defensive back Chuck Clark is recovering from. After he was traded to the Ravens in 2023, Clark tore his ACL during voluntary organized workouts with the Jets before he could play a snap with the team. That situation and the gravity of the rehab are probably key factors for the discount currently available on Clark, but I’m willing to bet on that health variable, just given the consistent production that he has provided in the past.
Back in 2022 with the Ravens, Clark recorded 61 solo tackles and 40 assists in 17 games, playing 1,093 snaps on defense. These numbers gave him a tackling efficiency of approximately 9.24%. While this is not eye-popping, it’s solid for a defensive back. Clark started to play 100% of snaps on defense beginning in the 2020 season when he recorded 171.35 fantasy points in Big 3 Scoring. He followed that impressive season up with 169.9 points in 2021 and 128.75 points in 2022.
The primary reason for the heavy exposure of Chuck Clark in my IDP best ball portfolio derives from the value he offers as a late-round selection. In the four drafts that I came away with Clark, the earliest I selected him was pick 26.05, and the latest was pick 27.01. For a safety who has demonstrated he can maintain a relatively safe floor in fantasy with a propensity to play 100% of snaps on defense, I’m comfortable rolling the dice and banking on a successful rehab from the torn ACL.
6. Josey Jewell, LB, Carolina Panthers
Exposure: 38%
Josey Jewell is one of my favorite linebackers going into the 2024 NFL season, and my fantasy portfolio reflects as much. In the three drafts where I selected the 29-year-old veteran, the earliest I reached for him was pick 5.08. In the other two drafts, I was able to wait a round and grab him at picks 6.04 and 6.05.
The sixth round of drafts is a nice spot to get a linebacker that has top-10 fantasy potential. Waiting on linebacker a bit allows managers to focus the defensive line early and maybe even hone in on one of the stud defensive backs. In a few drafts, I’ve been able to pair the aforementioned Lavonte David with Jewell, and I think that’s a great one-two punch to go after in the early-mid range of drafts.
What excites me most about Jewell’s prospects is the reunion with defensive Ejiro Evero in Carolina. Evero was Jewell’s defensive coordinator in 2022 when he stuffed the stat sheet with 127 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 picks in just 13 games. Last season was down by comparison, as Jewell recorded 108 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 3 fumble recoveries in 16 games. Nonetheless, Jewell showed, once again, that he has a knack for executing big plays.
Jewell’s 3-year, $18.75M contract with the Panthers shows the excitement that Evero and the organization have in bringing him to Carolina, and I think the big-play threat in the middle has a massive season on the horizon.
7. DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts
Exposure: 38%
DeForest Buckner is simply a force on both the gridiron and in fantasy football lineups. Not only does the 6’7”, 295-pound monster of a defensive lineman produce at an elite clip, but he also maintains rare consistency at doing so. Buckner has averaged 205.48 fantasy points per season in Big 3 Scoring across his eight-year NFL tenure thus far, which is mind-boggling consistency for a player who has played for two different teams and with such longevity already.
There are a lot of things to like about Buckner. First and foremost, he’s been available. Through his first eight seasons, Buckner has only missed two games. Furthermore, he’s played in every game with the Colts over the last three seasons and had his best season fantasy-wise just last year when he recorded 250.65 fantasy points in Big 3 Scoring, good for 24th overall amongst all IDP players.
Another component of the allure with Buckner is his ability to maintain a high tackle floor while still flirting with double-digit sacks each season. With 81 tackles in conjunction with 8 sacks last season, Buckner rarely burned fantasy managers while still providing week-winning upside with splash plays.
Finally, Buckner has been a stud analytically, consistently ranked in the top echelon of interior defenders on PFF. In 2023, Buckner ranked 12th amongst interior defenders with an overall PFF grade of 81.8 and an 87.1 pass-rush grade.
My favorite part about Buckner, however, is the discounted price that I’m able to acquire him in IDP best ball drafts. In the three drafts I’ve come away with Buckner, I was able to get him in the third round, with the earliest being pick 3.01 and the latest being pick 3.08. I’m ecstatic to get a player with DL1 upside in the third round, regardless of whether it’s 3.01 or 3.12. Buckner is a particularly easy selection for me given the consistency and availability throughout his NFL career, and he is someone I will continue to target heavily in IDP best ball drafts.
8. Cody Barton, LB, Denver Broncos
Exposure: 38%
Like my heavy investment in Chuck Clark, my shares in Cody Barton are risky. Barton has not shown much in terms of actual, on-the-field play at the linebacker position. Furthermore, his analytics are a bit of an eyesore. Across his first four seasons in the NFL, he’s never received higher than a 59.7 overall PFF grade on defense.
Last year, his 53.9 PFF grade was good for 74th among linebackers meeting the snap-count minimum. With all that being said, Barton has shown that he has a knack for producing and racking up tackles when given the opportunity to do so, which is my primary concern when it comes to fantasy football.
Back in 2022, Cody Barton was thrust into a starting role and broke out in terms of production, recording a whopping 136 tackles. In 2023, Barton racked up 121 tackles in just 13 games with the Washington Commanders. While there doesn’t seem to be a ton of big-play upside, he has recorded 2 sacks and 3 picks across his last two seasons in a starting role. Furthermore, Barton’s tackle rate of 14.37% in 2023 illustrates that he is productive with the snaps he's given.
The main risk with selecting Cody Barton stems from the fact that he’s not guaranteed playing time. As unfortunate as it was, the torn Achilles for Drew Sanders during the offseason program back in April seemingly paved the way for Barton to get more snaps. However, recent camp reports have noted that Barton is currently battling with Jonas Griffith for the other starting job at inside linebacker alongside Alex Singleton. With that in mind, there is a substantial risk in selecting Barton in IDP best ball drafts and his floor is quite low.
Even with all the red flags, I’m willing to take the shot on Barton and get a top-tier tackler at where I’ve been able to select him thus far. In the three drafts I’ve come away with the 27-year-old linebacker, all selections have come in the 11th round, with two selections at 11.08 and one a bit earlier at 11.05. Hedging your bet and drafting Jonas Griffith in the latter rounds of best ball drafts is probably the move if you possess the courage to roll the dice on Barton.
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