5 IDP Best Ball Fades (And Who to Target Instead)
5 IDP Best Ball Fades (And Who to Target Instead)
Want to win? Pass on these overhyped IDPs and grab the values later in your draft.
One of the keys to IDP best ball drafts, like all other fantasy football drafts, is fading players who are being overdrafted and scooping up value later on. I spent some time looking through The IDP Show’s ADP and was shocked at some of the overvalued players I found. Here are five players I’m not drafting at their current ADP, why I’m fading them, and who I’d rather target instead later in the draft.
#1: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, New York Giants
(EDGE11, DL11, ADP 15.5)
Target instead: Khalil Mack, Trey Hendrickson, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Greenard, Harold Landry, Alex Highsmith, Haason Reddick, Matthew Judon
Yes, that’s a long list of players I’d rather draft. I could’ve added more but I had to cut it off somewhere. It may look like Thibodeaux had a good year in 2023 with 13 sacks, but digging a little deeper uncovers an unsustainable success rate. Look at these underlying numbers (ranking vs. edge players with at least 300 pass rush snaps):
Pass rush grade: 62.9 (49th)
Win percentage: 6.4 (61st)
Hurries: 26 (49th)
QB hits: 4 (55th)
In addition, his PFF PRP (pass rush productivity) was 5.6, which ranked 54th among edge rushers with at least 300 pass rush snaps (and the PRP is weighted towards sacks). Statistically, Thibodeaux performed a lot more like Leonard Floyd last year than a player you should take in the second round. (Which, look, I like Leonard Floyd but I don’t see anyone taking him anywhere near the second round.)
Thibodeaux is going into his third season and will likely continue to improve but it's too big of a leap for me to think he should be taken in the second round.
#2: Nick Bolton, LB, Kansas City Chiefs
(LB5, ADP 19.5)
Target instead: Ernest Jones, Zaire Franklin, TJ Edwards, Quincy Williams, Bobby Wagner
Bolton’s overall defensive grade of 69.2 ranked 37th among LBs with at least 300 snaps. Then he had some very, very poor performances in the playoffs and ended the postseason with a defensive grade of 46. (Not great.) However, he only played eight regular season games in 2023 and they were broken up into three stretches.
His great 2022 was due in part to playing 1,118 snaps, which was 5th most amongst LBs. After 2023, I don’t trust Spagnuolo to ever give Bolton 1,100 snaps again, which means I don’t expect him to have another season like 2022. He’s a good linebacker who struggled through injuries last year, so I’ll cut him some slack. But I’m not taking him over the likes of Jones, Franklin, Edwards, Williams, or Wagner for 2024.
#3: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
(EDGE32, DL38, ADP 67.8)
Target instead: Greg Rousseau, Andrew Van Ginkel
Yes, I said I’d rather have Van Ginkel. Why? Because I think Van Ginkel out-snaps Turner this year. I’m not drafting any of the rookies at their ADP, but if they were going later, I would take Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu over Turner. I think Verse has a clearer path to more snaps than Turner and Latu is a more polished pass rusher.
A lot of rookies start their NFL careers off slowly, especially at linebacker and defensive line. We only have to look to last year to see first-rounders Tyree Wilson, Jalen Carter, Lukas Van Ness, Will McDonald, Jack Campbell, Calijah Kancey, Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, Nolan Smith, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah who most likely didn’t live up to your expectations. That’s not to say they aren’t good, but rather that we should temper our expectations for this year’s rookie class.
I’m going to miss out on a bunch of rookies I like a lot (or love, as you will see below) in best ball because they are being over-drafted. Yes, rookies are fun on your dynasty squads. But if they aren’t helping your best ball team? Not as much fun!
#4: Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
(LB 40, ADP 100.8)
Target instead: Jordan Hicks, Germaine Pratt, Kenneth Murray, Ja'Whaun Bentley
I’m not yet sold on Nakobe Dean. He just hasn’t done anything in the NFL yet to prove to me he is worth being picked before these proven vets (even Kenneth Murray). He barely played in 2022 after slipping to the third round due to injury. In 2023, he played in 5 games (Weeks 1, 6, 7, 8, and 9) and he did play well in two of those games, but that was against the weak offenses of New England and Washington.
He has struggled in coverage with a 49.2 PFF grade in 2023, which is admittedly common with young linebackers. The Eagles only use their second linebacker about 67% of the time and Dean should be second to Devin White most of the year.
Yes, the Eagles have a new DC this year, but Fangio was at 69% second linebacker usage with the Dolphins. Dean needs more seasoning and experience before I’m tempted to take him over any of the players listed above. Hopefully, he proves he can stay healthy this year and start gaining the experience he needs.
#5: Cooper DeJean CB, Philadelphia Eagles
(DB8, CB3, ADP 148.3)
Target instead: Xavier McKinney, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kyle Dugger, Josh Metellus, Cam Bynum, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Jevon Holland, Budda Baker
Look, this pains me because I love Cooper DeJean! He is my favorite player in this rookie class because I’m biased as a Hawkeye and Eagles fan. It’s always good to know your biases. I’ve drafted or traded for DeJean in four dynasty leagues and I know I overpaid slightly in a couple. But what are we doing drafting him over the players listed above in a single-season format like best ball? Not only is he a rookie, but his role is unclear this year in what has become a fairly loaded DB group in Philly.
I’m not even thinking about him at the point he is getting drafted and I LOVE him. It’s obvious the potential for kick return and punt return are helping push him up. With the rule changes for kick returns this year and the likelihood more kicks are returned, I get it. I am fairly certain DeJean will beat out Britain Covey to return punts but I’m not at all confident he will return kicks. I also think the new rules could start a trend towards using more RBs for returns. While DeJean certainly can return kicks with his great vision in tight areas (see the Minnesota punt return), he didn’t do it in college and the Eagles have a few other solid options in Will Shipley, Ainias Smith, and Isaiah Rodgers. Maybe they even try Kenneth Gainwell back there.
I’m happy to gobble up shares of DeJean in dynasty leagues. But for best ball, going as DB8 and CB3, he’s a hard pass for me. (Cooper, if you’re reading this, I’m sorry!)
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