2026 NFL Draft IDP Winners & Losers: Dynasty Fantasy Fallout
Mike Woellert breaks down the biggest IDP value changes coming out of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Now that the NFL Draft and free agency whirlwind has settled down, it’s time to look at the winners from the draft and free agency, along with the collateral damage left behind.
With every great free-agent signing and draft pick, there’s an equal and opposite reaction for the players currently on the roster.
Here’s a look at the winners and losers after the draft and free agency.
Winners
Drue Tranquill, LB, Kansas City Chiefs
Drue Tranquill came through free agency and the draft relatively unscathed. The Chiefs allowed Leo Chenal to walk in free agency, and KC didn’t address linebacker in free agency or the NFL Draft.
Tranquill has three years left on his contract and is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2028 season.
Although he hasn’t quite hit the marks from his Los Angeles Chargers days, Tranquill is a staple in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He was on the field for 85% of the snaps in 2025, recorded his first 100-tackle season since 2022, and produced an 11.7% tackle rate.
The only other linebacker pushing him for snaps in 2026 is Jeffrey Bassa, a fifth-round pick, while Jack Cochrane is always in the mix. Tranquill should be a fixture in their nickel once again and is on the LB3 radar for redraft leagues.
Austin Booker, EDGE, Chicago Bears
The Bears need edge help and, shockingly, didn’t do much to address the position during the offseason.
Dayo Odeyingbo has been a free-agent disappointment thus far. Odeyingbo suffered a season-ending injury after just eight games. Through those games, he had just one sack and 10 pressures over 207 pass-rush snaps.
I think this puts Booker firmly in the running for the starting job opposite Montez Sweat. Booker still needs to improve his pass-rush efficiency, but he did finish the regular season strong, generating a 12.4% pressure rate over the final four games. He also showed up in the wild-card game with five pressures and a sack.
Booker needs to stay healthy. If he does, I think a breakout season is on the way.
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Miami Dolphins
Chop Robinson had a promising rookie year. He recorded six sacks and produced 56 pressures on his way to a 16.3% pressure rate. His outlook heading into his sophomore season looked bright.
Robinson appeared in 15 games and saw 100 fewer pass-rush snaps. However, I wasn’t expecting a Thelma & Louise–style, drive-off-a-cliff drop in production. Robinson recorded just 19 pressures, but at least he converted 21% of those into sacks.
You can blame a few injuries throughout the season. A knee injury in Week 2 slowed him down, followed by a concussion in Week 9. They aren’t excuses, but they do add context to the disappointment.
The Dolphins expressed confidence in Robinson. They dealt Bradley Chubb to the Bills and brought in marginal names during free agency, signing Josh Uche and David Ojabo. During a draft that was fairly deep with edge rushers, they mostly ignored the position, adding Max Llewellyn in the seventh round.
Now, it’s up to Robinson to produce. He’s on track to be the starter and EDGE1 and should be 100% heading into 2026. IDP drafters should be able to get Robinson relatively cheap in redraft, with the potential for him to produce as a DL2. It might even be possible to get him as a throw-in in a dynasty trade.
Tyler Nubin, S, New York Giants
With the number of decent safeties available in the NFL Draft, I’m sure Tyler Nubin was sweating all weekend.
His job isn’t completely safe, but he avoided a huge landmine when the Giants passed on Caleb Downs twice in favor of Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa.
In his second year, Nubin posted a 57.2 PFF grade, was a liability against the run, and produced a 16.9% missed-tackle rate. He was also the victim of blown assignments and bad angles. The Giants used a top-50 pick on him, and they’re going to try to get the most out of that investment.
New head coach John Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson have both stated that it’s a clean slate, which I’m sure is music to Nubin’s ears. However, he can’t rest on his laurels. He’ll need to dramatically improve his game.
If Wilson can get the most out of Nubin, we could see a return to his rookie form. He’s a nice Zero-DB target in redraft leagues, as he’ll go under the radar after a disappointing sophomore season.
Barrett Carter, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals addressed the linebacker position last season by spending two top-130 picks on Demetrius Knight, selected 49th overall, and Barrett Carter, selected 119th overall.
Carter eventually took over the green dot midseason, and the Bengals ultimately traded Logan Wilson to the Cowboys. Cincinnati threw its young linebackers into the deep end and wanted to see if they could swim.
They swam, but they sank a few times during the season. Among off-ball linebackers who played at least 50% of their team’s snaps, Carter graded as the third-worst (39.5) and was in the red/orange in all four phases. I’m not sure what they expected, to be honest.
There were several veteran off-ball linebackers who could have been brought in, and some are still available. There were also potentially better options in the draft. Instead, the Bengals are trusting Carter to develop and improve going into his second year.
From a fantasy standpoint, he finished as the LB46 in scoring. However, he didn’t take over the full-time role until Week 6. From Week 6 on, he was the LB30 and produced a 13.5% tackle rate.
Carter appears to have a secure role in the defense, at least for 2026.
Losers
Micah McFadden, LB, New York Giants
I think one of the bigger losers after free agency and the draft is Micah McFadden. Bobby Okereke was released, and even though the Giants signed Tremaine Edmunds, they didn’t really add an LB2 during free agency.
Then the draft came. The Giants took Arvell Reese with the fifth pick, but entering the draft, he was a man without a position. Is he an edge? Is he an off-ball linebacker? Will he play both?
John Harbaugh answered that question by saying Reese was going to play off-ball on the weak side opposite Edmunds.
That torpedoed any IDP value McFadden might have had. McFadden suffered a Lisfranc foot injury and missed the entire season.
Reese appears to be the full-time LB2, leaving McFadden as nothing more than a rotational piece.
Terrel Bernard, LB, Buffalo Bills
Terrel Bernard hasn’t played a full season since 2023 and has missed at least four games in consecutive years.
The Bills let Matt Milano go in free agency, and he has yet to sign elsewhere, but I think Buffalo drafted Bernard’s replacement in the fourth round: Kaleb Elarms-Orr.
The fourth round isn’t insignificant. If you’re drafted within the first four rounds, I think there’s an expectation that you’ll contribute. Will it be this year? If Bernard’s injury history is any indication, we might see him sooner rather than later.
Elarms-Orr comes in at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds. He displayed real athleticism at the Combine, running a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and showing off his explosiveness with a 40-inch vertical and a 124-inch broad jump.
Bernard had better be looking over his shoulder. As they say, “Never let them see your backup.”
Jaylon Carlies, LB, Indianapolis Colts
I think we can put the nail in Jaylon Carlies’ coffin. It’s never going to happen.
In the words of N.W.A. ‘s “Gangsta Gangsta,” Carlies took a right-left, a right-left, and he’s toothless, leaving him to say, “Damn, the Colts are ruthless.”
After the Colts traded Zaire Franklin, they added Akeem Davis-Gaither late in free agency. That wasn’t horrible, considering Davis-Gaither hasn’t been able to hold down a role.
The right-left came when the Colts drafted CJ Allen, and the next right-left came when they drafted Bryce Boettcher.
If you’re holding on to Carlies in dynasty, he’s safe to drop to waivers.
SirVocea Dennis, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SirVocea Dennis suffered the same fate as Jaylon Carlies. Dennis appeared in 16 games and played more than 900 snaps in 2025.
His PFF grades were rough, especially in coverage. Even with Lavonte David retiring, the Bucs decided against passing the torch to Dennis.
Dennis allowed a 90% catch rate and a 114.9 passer rating when targeted. He even got benched during a Monday night game against Houston. He was frequently targeted by opposing quarterbacks, as Dennis seemed to be playing on his heels. Dennis is a decent run defender, but he’s a coverage liability.
On top of that, the Bucs added significantly to the linebacker room through free agency and the draft:
Alex Anzalone: two years, $17 million in free agency
Christian Rozeboom: one year, $1.55 million in free agency
Josiah Trotter: drafted 46th overall
Rozeboom’s deal isn’t as significant as Anzalone’s, and the Bucs spent high draft capital to acquire Trotter, so he’s viewed as a future key defensive piece.
I’m crossing Dennis off my draft board for 2026 redraft leagues.
Jalyx Hunt, EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles
Just as we thought we were going to get full-time Jalyx Hunt in 2026, the Eagles decided to pull off a trade.
I think the Eagles are severely underrating Hunt. He enjoyed a bit of a breakout season, recording 6.5 sacks and being a consistent source of pressure, generating a 16.7% pressure rate. The Eagles allowed Jaelan Phillips to walk in free agency, so the arrow seemed to be pointing up on Hunt’s 2026 potential.
Things changed for Hunt when the Eagles acquired Jonathan Greenard via trade with the Minnesota Vikings, giving up two third-round picks for Greenard. He should factor into the pass-rush rotation immediately and could even start opposite Nolan Smith, leaving Hunt as the EDGE3 off the bench.
Injuries dampened Greenard’s 2025 season after he posted 24.5 sacks over the previous two seasons. Greenard will provide a boost to the Eagles’ pass rush. It’s just unfortunate that it comes at Hunt’s expense.
Hunt appeared in 693 snaps in 2025, so I’m expecting a decrease in usage due to Greenard’s addition.
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