2024 IDP Rankings Breakdown: Defensive Linemen
2024 IDP Rankings Breakdown: Defensive Linemen
Mike Woellert turns his attention to the DL to put together his tiers for 2024.
NFL training camps open in less than two weeks, so football is in sight, friends. With that in mind, now is the perfect time to look at my defensive line projections and break those players into tiers, which I believe is the best way to draft.
Defensive line is deep, aided by an influx of talent in the past five years. DL, much like DB, often produces boom or bust weeks, and while there are a few elite options, there are quite a few options in the 2nd and 3rd tiers that can produce at an elite level.
Tier 1
I’ve got five players in the first tier. These rushers have 15+ sack upside and are worthy of being the top DL off the board.
Does Maxx Crosby break the 15-sack mark this year? He came close last season with 14.5, but also added a career-high 90 tackles. His busy hands help produce strip sacks and he’s a menace around the LOS, recording 45 TFLs over the last two seasons.
Myles Garrett
Maxx Crosby
Nick Bosa
T.J. Watt
Micah Parsons
Tier 2
I think tier 2 is where I’ll be doing most of my shopping at the DL position.
I think the lineman who has a shot at becoming an elite tier player is Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions brought in some reinforcements for him, adding Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader in free agency. Does he really need help? Hutchinson produced 121 total QB pressures and generated a 16.9% pressure rate and a 28.7% win rate last season. Hutchinson had 28 QB hits, so if he converts just a few of those, and gets to the QB quicker, he’s on his way to a 15-sack season.
Alex Highsmith is one of the most underrated edge rushers in the league. He’s overshadowed by TJ Watt, but I think he’s more than capable of being a DL1 on any NFL team. Highsmith has 21.5 sacks over the last two seasons, including 14.5 in 2022. Highsmith improved his pressure rate from 10.5% in 2022 to 13.6% in 2023. He was a step or two away from a 10+ sack season. If you leave your draft with a combination of Hutch/Highsmith, you’re in good shape. (That’s a great buddy cop TV series, too.)
I’m still a big Montez Sweat fan heading into 2024. After his trade to Chicago, he produced 10 more pressures over 40 more pass-rush snaps. Sweat finished with 12.5 sacks between the Commanders and Bears, his first double-digit sack season as a pro.
Trey Hendrickson has 13+ sacks in three of his last four seasons. He could have had four, but he missed a few games in 2022. Hendrickson has 3+ forced fumbles in three straight seasons, and 10+ QB hits in four straight. If he had a higher tackle rate, you could make an argument that he belongs close to the first tier. Hendrickson has generated a 16.2% pressure rate and a 23.1% win rate since joining the Bengals.
Danielle Hunter
Josh Allen
Aidan Hutchinson
Brian Burns
Harold Landry
DeForest Buckner
Khalil Mack
Trey Hendrickson
Chris Jones
Will Anderson
Matthew Judon
Montez Sweat
Jonathan Greenard
Bryce Huff
Alex Highsmith
Rashan Gary
Jaelan Phillips
Tier 3
If you plan on going zero-DL, you won’t want to wait too much longer. There are still solid options in tier 3.
Preston Smith is still a fine redraft target. He’s recorded at least 8 sacks in three straight seasons, generating an 11.5% pressure rate. Smith has been a workhorse for the Packers-not missing a game in his 9-year career. Although his win rate has declined in recent years, his pressure rate has remained consistent. He may not beat blockers with his primary move, but he’s utilized secondary moves effectively. I’m targeting Smith as my DL3.
I think Gregory Rousseau is on the verge of a breakout season with Buffalo. Rousseau has steadily improved his pressure rate since his rookie year, leading to an increase in total QB pressures. Last season, he generated a 14.8% pressure rate, which included 14 QB hits. If he’s able to get an extra step, he’s on his way to a career year.
I really like Rashan Gary in this tier, although he’s being drafted among the top 25 DL/edge rushers. Do I have him projected/ranked too low? It depends. If you think he reaches double-digit sacks, then yeah, you’ll draft him as your DL2. I think my projections are pretty fair: 7.6 sacks and 16 QB hits. Gary looked like he recovered from his torn ACL nicely and finished with a 15% pressure rate and 20.3% win rate. There’s a lot to like from Gary as he’s now a year fully removed from his 2022 injury.
Uchenna Nwosu is under the radar after missing the majority of the 2023 season thanks to a pectoral injury. Nwosu has said he’ll be ready for training camp. He enjoyed a career year in 2023 after signing with Seattle in free agency, generating a 13.8% pressure rate, which resulted in 9.5 sacks. Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, and Leonard Williams provide plenty of protection to keep Nwosu clean to get to the QB. Looking at his ADP, he’s being drafted as the DL33/ED028. I think he clears that value this season if he remains healthy.
Jaelan Phillips is being drafted right around Nwosu’s ADP. Phillips is coming off an Achilles’ injury that caused him to miss half the season. He was on his way to a monster year. He recorded 6.5 sacks in 8 games, along with 43 tackles and a near 20% (19.6%) win rate. Through 8 games, he had produced a 13% pressure rate. I’m willing to draft Phillips as my DL2/ED002 this season.
Haason Reddick
Gregory Rousseau
Preston Smith
Jonathan Allen
Christian Wilkins
Byron Young
Derrick Brown
Josh Sweat
Sam Hubbard
Carl Granderson
Justin Madubuike
Uchenna Nwosu
Daron Payne
Jonathon Cooper
Tier 4
Tier 4 begins the, “Oh crap, I totally forgot to draft a DL” scare. Or, you’re truly going zero-DL and hoping to hit on all of your breakout candidates.
Bryce Huff is off to Philadelphia and Haason Reddick has been in Japan cosplaying. Will Reddick show for up camp? Jermaine Johnson could be handling the pass rush load for the Jets. Johnson appeared in all 17 games and finished the ‘23 season with 7.5 sacks and a 12.6% pressure rate. I’ve got Johnson projected for 728 snaps, but he could eclipse that with some of the uncertainty at the edge position. If Johnson maintains his pressure rate, he could see 8+ sacks this season.
Odafe Oweh is a curious case. He generates an elite pressure rate (15.3%) and win rate (23.7%), but has yet to produce more than 5 sacks in a season. I think you can blame his usage. Last season, he saw just 38% of the snaps. Oweh’s usage should go up as he looks to be one of the spotlight edge rushers alongside Kyle Van Noy. Oweh is a high-upside pick and is being drafted as the DL70/ED52. I think 8 sacks are in his sights this season.
George Karlaftis
Jermaine Johnson
Zach Sieler
Odafe Oweh
Quinnen Williams
Joey Bosa
Ed Oliver
Cameron Jordan
Demarcus Lawrence
Kobie Turner
YaYa Diaby
Boye Mafe
Za'Darius Smith
Denico Autry
Javon Hargrave
Tier 5
Tier 5 will be some of your dart throws and best ball targets who are capable of boom or bust weeks.
Kwity Paye will be under the microscope this season. He’s entering his 4th year and signed his fifth-year option, so he did enough during the 2023 season to open some eyes. However, he produced a pressure rate less than 7% (6.8%) which is, well, less than ideal. Paye has some lofty goals for the upcoming season, as he’s aiming for 12-15 sacks. Paye is being drafted among the top 45 DLs and that’s where I’m comfortable grabbing him and hoping for a big payoff.
Calijah Kancey could see a second-year jump in usage and production. Kancey appeared in 14 games as a rookie and saw 577 snaps. I have Kancey projected for over 700 snaps and could reach the 6-sack mark. He is a DT2/3 target in DT-required leagues.
Andrew Van Ginke
lLukas Van Ness
Kwity Paye
Leonard Floyd
Travon Walker
Leonard Williams
Tuli Tuipulotu
Calijah Kancey
D.J. Wonnum
Kenny Clark
Dexter Lawrence
Zach Allen
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Michael Hoecht
Jeffery Simmons
Tier 6
Tier 6 is entering no man’s land. Enter this range with zero or one DL at your own peril. There are a few gems here, but it could be frustrating to pinpoint which weeks they’ll produce in seasonal leagues.
Dennis Gardeck is an underrated best ball option. He kicked off the season with a multi-sack game (3 total). He would go on to record 3 more sacks for the remainder of the season. He also threw in 12 QB hits. As a part-time player, he generated a 17.4% pressure rate and a 20.8% win rate. I do think he maintains his role, but I wouldn’t count out a potential increase in snaps.
Bradley Chubb got hurt in a meaningless game at the end of the season. He produced elite numbers, producing a 14.7% pressure rate and a 20.6% win rate. His health is up in the air for the 2024 season. He makes a fine late-round target if you think he’ll make his return at some point this season. The Dolphins bolstered their pass rush in the draft by taking Chop Robinson and Mo Kamara, and added Shaq Barrett in free agency. It sounds like Chubb’s rehab is on track.
Marcus Davenport gets to line up opposite a dynamic rusher in Aidan Hutchinson. An ankle injury limited Davenport to 4 games. He has a career pressure rate of 12.6% pressure rate, so if Davenport can take advantage of his single teams and beat his blockers, there’s some sack upside here.
Zaven Collins
Christian Barmore
Cameron Heyward
Bradley Chubb
Dennis Gardeck
Justin Jones
Marcus Davenport
Jadeveon Clowney
Anfernee Jennings
Grady Jarrett
Jalen Carter
Will McDonald
Malcolm Koonce
David Onyemata
Mike Danna
Tier 7
Welcome to the Storage Wars tier of the position. Open up the locker and you see a moldy mattress or a random tire. Buried could be a collection of unopened Star Wars figures or a safe whose contents are unknown.
Dorance Armstrong is the random safe that I’m eyeing. Armstrong has produced three straight seasons of 35+ QB pressures resulting in an 11.4% pressure rate. He’s converted 21 of those pressures into sacks. Armstrong looks to be Washington’s top edge rusher heading into the 2024 season.
B.J. Hill
Chase Young
Azeez Ojulari
Kyle Van Noy
A.J. Epenesa
Osa Odighizuwa
Myles Murphy
Von Miller
Dorance Armstrong
Josh Uche
Arik Armstead
Alim McNeill
Harrison Phillips
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
Arnold Ebiketie
Tier 8
Tier 8 is the best of the rest at DL.
The first rookies appear here. It’s tough to project them, but if I were going to reach on any of the rookies, it’d be Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu. Jared Verse is another high-upside rookie who could see a hefty workload.
Is this the Nolan Smith second-year breakout? Will he stay on the edge? He’ll have a lot to prove entering his second season and will be playing behind Bryce Huff, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham. Even at age 36, Graham saw 270 pass-rush snaps. Keep an eye on Smith during training camp. He could be moved around the edge and off-ball LB.
Chop Robinson’s production was called into question during the draft process, however, he’s impressing the coaches with his motor.
Braden Fiske could be a problem for opposing offensive lines, even as a rookie.
David Ojabo
John Franklin-Myers
Charles Omenihu
Lorenzo Carter
Maliek Collins
Baron Browning
Jarran Reed
Arden Key
Laiatu Latu
Josh Paschal
DeMarcus Walker
Gervon Dexter
Dayo Odeyingbo
Dallas Turner
D.J. Jones
Chop Robinson
Nolan Smith
Shelby Harris
Larry Ogunjobi
Jared Verse
Grover Stewart
Sheldon Rankins
Vita Vea
Clelin Ferrell
Dalvin Tomlinson
Deatrich Wise
Braden Fiske
Devonte Wyatt
Nick Herbig
Sebastian Joseph-Day
Kingsley Jonathan
Davon Godchaux
Patrick Jones
Marshawn Kneeland
Morgan Fox
Nik Bonitto
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
D.J. Reader
Dante Fowler
Carl Lawson
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
Darius Robinson
Chris Braswell
Andrew Billings
Brandon Graham
Randy Gregory
Yetur Gross-Matos
Mazi Smith
Dre'Mont Jones
John Cominsky
Jordan Davis
Keion White
Tyree Wilson
Khalil Davis
Zach Harrison
Adetokunbo Ogundeji
Byron Murphy II
Keenu Benton
Nathan Shepherd
Michael Pierce
Travis Jones
Alex Wright
Kris Jenkins
Jonathan Harris
T'Vondre Sweat
Javon Kinlaw
Jer'Zhan Newton
Jonah Elliss
Ruke Orhorhoro
Bud Dupree
Adisa Isaac
Mohamed Kamara
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